柏瑞週報20181026

1. 26 October
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
( )
10 6.19 3.1167%
10
10 1.8
0.398%
•
VIX 20%
0.49%
0.69% 19.5
417.78
•
0.44%
0.15%
0.12%
0.08%
1.04%
Bloomberg 2018/10/25
商品 資金流向
0.09
-1.15
-1.29
-1.56
-1.18
-1.06
0.14
-1.17
0.02
-0.45
-0.08
-0.24
-0.27
-0.07
0.15
-1.04
-0.82
-0.77
-0.69
-0.49
-0.44
-0.28
-0.21
-0.15
-0.12
-0.05
0.08
0.12
0.21
0.46
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 2.28%
• 600
1.82%
225 6.13%
•
4.72%
•
5.79%
4.35%
•
0.35%
Bloomberg 2018/10/25
商品 資金流向
-11.16
-13.28
-8.08
-8.60
-11.62
-8.63
-7.20
-8.91
-7.51
-4.84
-4.14
6.19
6.94
-1.49
-6.01
-6.38
-6.13
-4.35
-3.13
-2.76
-2.52
-2.43
-2.28
-2.26
-1.82
-1.82
-1.71
-1.19
0.28
0.35
0.39
4.72
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
MSCI
MSCI
DAX
500
MSCI
600
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
BOVESPA
H
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC
• (EIA)
10 19 634.6
( ) 5
Bloomberg EIA 2018/10/25
商品 資金流向
-6.43
-6.08
-0.76
-0.47
-6.85
5.19
-6.18
-3.72
-0.17
-3.40
2.57
-1.46
-5.02
-3.03
-2.63
-2.52
-1.92
-1.73
-1.62
-0.94
-0.94
-0.47
0.52
1.12
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 10 24 85
18 53
26 7
1
• 72 5
31 29
11
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/10/25
商品 資金流向

8. PAGE 7
•
( 1) 10
( 2)
• Trump Trump
Powell
Powell
• 9 5.5%
55.3 2016 12
8 62.9
58.5 9 3.4%
2 6
• Khashoggi
Trump
Mnuchin
• Trump
10%
Bloomberg 2018/10/25
( 1) S&P 500 K
( 2) 10 K

9. PAGE 8
• 3 S&P 500 4
82% ( )
60% 3
S&P 500 23.6% 4
19.4%
•
United Rentals 11 3
• Netflix Netflix( )
Netflix 10
16 4 19
20
• Tesla Tesla
Musk
Tesla Model 3
Bloomberg 2018/10/25
S&P 500

10. PAGE 9
•
2019
Conte
( 1)
• ECB (ECB)
ECB
150 12 ECB
• PMI 10
(PMI) 9 54.1 52.7 53.9
10 PMI 53.2 52.1 PMI
54.7 53.3( 2)
•
10 (PMI) 53.1
Bloomberg 2018/10/25

11. PAGE 10
• GDP
6.5% 6.6% 2008
( 1)
9
5.8% 6%
9 9.2%
9.0%
•
1500
100
( 2)
•
Datafolha Bolsonaro
56% Haddad
44% Bolsonaro
Bloomberg 2018/10/25
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2018/10/25
/ / 本益比 風險
/ /
10/29 9 PCE( ) 2.00% 2.00%
10/30 3 GDP ( ) 0.40% 0.40%
10/31 10 GfK -10 -9
10/31 10 PMI 54.9 54.9
10/31 10 PMI 50.6 50.8
10/31 -- --
10/31 3 GDP 2.30% 3.30%
10/31 9 8.10% 8.10%
10/31 10 CPI( ) 1.00% 0.90%
10/31 10 ADP 190k 230k
10/31 -- -0.10%
10/31 Selic -- 6.50%
11/1 10 50 50
11/1 0.75% 0.75%
11/1 10 ISM 59.4 59.8
11/2 10 190k 134k
11/2 10 ( ) 3.10% 2.80%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 116.0 (10/25) 5 : 125.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.24 (10/25)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.83 (10/25)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 271.03 (10/25) 5 : 321.3

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.75 (10/25)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 417.8 (10/25) 5 : 452.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.79 (10/25)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 364.0 (10/25) 5 : 436.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.49 (10/25)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 408.0 (10/25) 5 : 362.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.67 (10/25)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 560.2 (10/25) 5 : 502.8

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.75 (10/25)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 360.47 (10/25) 5 : 337.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.31 (10/25)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 322.49 (10/25) 5 : 331.6

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.18 (10/25)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 515.0 (10/25) 5 : 574.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.80 (10/25)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 272.76 (10/25) 5 : 255.3

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.1 (10/25) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.6 (10/25) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.6 (10/25) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 15.0 (10/25) 5 : 17.7

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.0 (10/25) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.0 (10/25) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 18.3 (10/25) 5 : 17.9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.7 (10/25) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 24.22 (10/25) 5 : 14.58
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 56.7 (10/25) 5 : 65.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.0 (10/25) 5 : 72.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 379.1 (10/25) 5 : 362.2

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/10/25 '14/10/25 '15/10/25 '16/10/25 '17/10/25 '18/10/25
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/10/25 '14/10/25 '15/10/25 '16/10/25 '17/10/25 '18/10/25
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/10/25 '14/10/25 '15/10/25 '16/10/25 '17/10/25 '18/10/25
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'13/10/25 '14/10/25 '15/10/25 '16/10/25 '17/10/25 '18/10/25
2018/10/25
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR107193
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•
•
•
( )
•
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