柏瑞週報 20181116

1. 16 November
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
(1) (2) (3)
10 12
3.125%
•
2016
7 2017 4
0.66%
•
0.66%
0.64%
0.24% 0.06%
0.35%
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
商品 資金流向
-1.48
-1.63
-1.64
-1.10
0.06
0.07
-1.80
-0.11
0.79
-0.25
-0.33
-0.53
0.10
-0.01
0.35
-1.49
-1.49
-1.43
-0.66
-0.64
-0.63
-0.46
-0.24
-0.03
0.06
0.17
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.63
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
iPhone
NASDAQ 3.61%
S&P 500 2.73%
•
600 2.36% 225
3.04%
•
1.23%
• 10 6%
1.48%
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
商品 資金流向
-2.10
-0.75
-1.15
-0.31
-0.24
-4.39
-1.36
-2.24
-0.93
4.05
0.94
-0.75
1.72
1.13
3.13
3.90
-3.04
-2.73
-2.54
-2.38
-2.36
-2.26
-2.09
-1.51
-1.48
-1.38
-1.28
-1.20
-0.80
0.06
0.41
1.23
Nikkei 225
500
MSCI
MSCI
600
MSCI
RTS
DAX
H
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
• 12
12
OPEC
5%
• (EIA)
11 9 1,027 ( )
8 2017 2
Bloomberg EIA 2018/11/15
12
商品 資金流向
-21.34
-17.53
-10.74
-3.14
-4.83
-7.11
-2.84
-1.13
-3.71
-1.86
-0.31
-0.88
-6.94
-5.70
-4.41
-3.49
-3.07
-2.20
-1.61
-0.87
-0.44
0.47
1.11
2.12
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 11 14 46
26 0.4
12 5
13
• 52 8 7
20 23
6
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/11/15
商品 資金流向

8. PAGE 7
•
David Malpass
• 10 10
0.3%
CPI 0.2%
CPI 2.1% 9 2.2%
2.2%
•
Jamal Khashoggi
17
Shaham
al-Qahtani
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
( 1) S&P 500 K
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
• Lipper
11/7 1 10.4
10.4
• FCC Sprint T-Mobile
(FCC)
9 180
FCC 12 4
Sprint T-Mobile FCC
• GE (GE)
Baker Hughes 40
GE
GE ( 2) GE
Bloomberg Refinitiv Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/11/15

10. PAGE 9
•
May
11/25
Raab
• 3
GDP 0.2% 2015
GDP
GDP 0.2% 2014
•
11/21
• GDP GDP
-0.3% 0.7%
GDP
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
GDP

11. PAGE 10
•
•
6% 6
4.75%
•
Obrador
Obrador
•
1 8.0%
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2018/11/23
/ / 本益比 風險
/ /
11/19 10 -¥70.0b ¥131.3b
11/20 10 1230k 1201k
11/20 10 ( ) 0.20% 0.50%
11/20 10 PPI( ) 3.30% 3.20%
11/21 11 98.3 98.3
11/21 10 -2.10% 0.70%
11/21 10 0.10% 0.50%
11/21 10 5.20m 5.15m
11/22 11 -3 -2.7
11/22 10 1.40% 1.20%
11/22 11 -- 32.64
11/22 11 -- 57.3
11/23 11 Markit 55.9 55.7
11/23 11 Markit 55 54.8
11/23 11 Markit 51.7 52
11/23 11 Markit 53.5 53.7
11/23 11 -- 52.9

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 128.0 (11/15) 5 : 125.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.34 (11/15)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.00 (11/15)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 289.07 (11/15) 5 : 320.4

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.05 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 449.6 (11/15) 5 : 451.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.14 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 404.0 (11/15) 5 : 436.2
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.70 (11/15)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 436.0 (11/15) 5 : 362.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.93 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 589.7 (11/15) 5 : 503.4

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.91 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 378.87 (11/15) 5 : 337.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.35 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 330.49 (11/15) 5 : 331.4

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.35 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 535.0 (11/15) 5 : 573.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.82 (11/15)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 277.77 (11/15) 5 : 255.2

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.3 (11/15) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.7 (11/15) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.8 (11/15) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 15.6 (11/15) 5 : 17.7

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.5 (11/15) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (11/15) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.1 (11/15) 5 : 18.0
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.1 (11/14) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.98 (11/15) 5 : 14.67
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 56.2 (11/15) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.3 (11/15) 5 : 72.5
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 392.1 (11/15) 5 : 362.4

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
2018/11/15
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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