柏瑞週報20200710

1. 10 July
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10 0.6135%
10 -0.463%
•
0.4% 597
0.49% 637
•
0.34%
0.47% 0.42%
Bloomberg 2020/7/9
-1.59
-0.34
1.52
1.95
1.34
1.19
-0.98
1.07
1.58
1.21
0.70
-0.48
1.58
1.78
1.28
2.49
0.08
0.34
0.34
0.38
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.42
0.42
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.59
0.65
0.75
0.90
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500
0.70%
•
600 1.26%
•
225 1.73%
•
300
11.65%
•
0.41%
Bloomberg 2020/7/9
-1.60
-5.16
-3.88
-1.02
-0.40
-1.72
-0.51
-6.50
-2.43
8.19
2.49
4.77
6.94
9.88
6.53
19.61
-1.26
-1.24
-1.11
-0.94
0.41
0.70
1.19
1.56
1.73
2.49
3.04
3.28
5.49
6.65
7.21
11.65
600
MSCI
RTS
DAX
BAML
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
H
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
8
• 7 8
565.4 ( )
325
Bloomberg 2020/7/9
1.75
2.84
1.45
3.85
6.31
6.49
5.14
2.60
3.64
9.11
6.86
4.06
-2.53
-1.83
-0.10
0.59
1.24
1.53
1.59
2.33
2.65
3.74
5.45
6.71
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 62
44 4 21 60
• 178
118 32 16
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/9
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• ISM 6
(PMI) 57.1 PMI 52.6( 2)
1980
50
60
• Joe Biden
7,000
500
28%
Trump
Trump
•
6 300
Trump
7 6
WHO WHO
Bloomberg 2020/7/9
( 2) ISM
( 1) S&P500

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 60
Studio City
Finance Alcoa
•
(Marc Short) 8
1
6 8630
2019
(PPP)
• 7 4
131 ( 2)
6 27
16
100
Bloomberg 2020/7/9
( 1)
( 2) ( )

10. PAGE 9 Bloomberg 2020/7/9
• 5
17.8%( 1)
147%
5
GDP
-8.7% 5.8%
7500
•
Sunak 300
(1)
50 90%
(2)
6
20% 5% 40
500 250
• 5
1.7%( 2)
3.1% 6
38.8 23.3
2002
( 1) ( )
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
( 1) PMI
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/7/9
• 6
(PMI) 58.4( 1) 55
2010 4 5
3
PMI
54.5 55.7 2010 11
• 6 (CPI)
2.5%
6 CPI 4
6 (PPI)
3%
•
3 4 15.29%
4
2020
-4.7% -6.5%
•
1.75%(
2) 2004

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/7/10
/ /
7/13 5 -3.7% -6.0%
7/14 6 CPI( ) 0.6% 0.1%
7/14 5 ( ) -21.1% -28.0%
7/14 7 ZEW 65.2 63.4
7/14 6 ( ) -2.3% -3.3%
7/14 6 ( ) -9.2% -16.7%
7/15 6 ( ) 4.7% 1.4%
7/15 - -0.100%
7/15 0.25% 0.25%
7/16 6 ( ) 5.0% 17.7%
7/16 2 GDP( ) 2.0% -6.8%
7/16 6 ( ) 4.7% 4.4%
7/16 6 ( ) 0.0% -2.8%
7/16 ECB 0.000% 0.000%
7/16 7 0.50% 0.50%
7/16 7 4.00% 4.25%
7/17 7 ( ) 79.6 78.1

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.08 (7/9)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 143 (7/9) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.97 (7/9)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 450 (7/9) 5 : 357

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.90 (7/9)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.80 (7/9)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 637 (7/9) 5 : 481
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 597 (7/9) 5 : 453

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.89 (7/9)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.76 (7/9)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 521 (7/9) 5 : 394
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 745 (7/9) 5 : 490

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.38 (7/9)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.84 (7/9)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 480 (7/9) 5 : 367
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 416 (7/9) 5 : 321

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.18 (7/9)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.01 (7/9)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 769 (7/9) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 300 (7/9) 5 : 216

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.4 (7/9) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.8 (7/9) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.0 (7/9) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.2 (7/9) 5 : 16.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.3 (7/9) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.6 (7/9) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.6 (7/9) 5 : 17.4
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.4 (7/9) 5 : 12.0
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 29.26 (7/9) 5 : 16.94
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 50.1 (7/9) 5 : 63.9
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.0 (7/9) 5 : 65.1
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 505 (7/9) 5 : 383
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/7/9 '16/7/9 '17/7/9 '18/7/9 '19/7/9 '20/7/9
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/9 '16/7/9 '17/7/9 '18/7/9 '19/7/9 '20/7/9
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/9 '16/7/9 '17/7/9 '18/7/9 '19/7/9 '20/7/9
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/7/9 '16/7/9 '17/7/9 '18/7/9 '19/7/9 '20/7/9
5 1
31.5% 0.4%
28.3% 0.0%
5 1
27.5% 0.5%
30.8% 0.1%
5 1
29.5% 0.5%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
26.6% 0.4%
25.6% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109189
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
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•
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