柏瑞週報 20200522

1. 22 May
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
20 10
10
10 0.6720%
5000
10 -0.495%
•
2.31% 681
2.97% 737.3
•
4.2%
10%
3.93%
Bloomberg 2020/5/21
-0.75
0.78
1.37
1.61
1.12
2.91
1.18
1.92
0.97
3.69
2.93
2.97
4.81
4.15
6.00
7.68
-0.45
0.16
0.22
1.10
1.10
1.19
1.27
1.29
1.64
1.83
1.94
2.31
2.76
2.97
3.93
4.20
ESG ( )
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 3.37%
• 5,000
600 4.15%
DAX 7.05%
•
225 3.20%
•
300
0.29% RTS
9.37%
• 0.96%
Bloomberg 2020/5/21
0.97
2.78
2.13
2.45
4.91
7.00
6.59
5.89
7.75
7.17
4.92
5.13
7.96
4.21
14.73
19.18
-0.61
-0.29
0.96
1.68
2.09
2.11
3.20
3.23
3.37
3.65
4.15
5.08
7.05
8.56
8.65
9.37
SENSEX
300
BAML
H
MSCI
Nikkei 225
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
600
BOVESPA
DAX
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
2
• 5 20
498 ( )
215
Bloomberg 2020/5/21
0.51
2.42
2.75
8.91
3.79
-5.62
2.05
7.17
4.76
22.79
86.55
238.86
-0.24
-0.19
0.08
0.36
1.35
2.74
3.12
3.62
5.85
6.00
15.84
23.08
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 76 1
29 13
35
• 178
107 65
3
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/5/20
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) Markit PMI
•
• Powell
Mnuchin
1 FED
2
3
FED
GDP 42.8% GDP 31.05%
• 5 IHS Markit PMI
39.8 PMI 4 26.7 36.9
PMI 36.4 2 ( 2)
50
4
Bloomberg 2020/5/21

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
280
Newell Brands
5 Park Hotels
Inspire Brands
• 95% S&P 500
6
Home Depot Expedia BestBuy L
Brands Nvidia
Walmart Target
• 5 16
244
3,860
Powell 5 6
20 25
( 1)
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2020/5/21

10. PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2020/5/21
( 2) GDP
•
5,000 (Recovery Fund)
5 27
• 5 IHS Markit
30.5( 1)
50 4 13.6 3
4
•
37.5 3 -0.003
2
Bailey
• GDP -0.9%( 2)
3.4% GDP
2015 GDP
GDP
0.7% 0.5%
( 1) Markit PMI

11. PAGE 10
( 1) LPR
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2020/5/21
• LPR 5 LPR(
) ( 1) 3.85%
4.65%
MLF( )
LPR
• 4
3.9%( 2)
1.5%
7.5% 1 4
10.3%
• 2
7 8.75% 8.25%
7 9
• 2 3.75%
4 275
7%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/5/22
/ /
5/25 5 IFO 77.5 74.3
5/25 5 - 83.8
5/26 5 86.0 86.9
5/26 6 GfK -19.5 -23.4
5/27 4 ( ) - -34.9%
5/28 1 GDP( ) -4.9% -4.8%
5/28 4 ( ) -17.5% -14.7%
5/28 5 - -18.8
5/28 7 0.50% 0.75%
5/29 5 74.3 73.7
5/29 4 -5.7% -2.0%
5/29 4 -12.6% -7.5%
5/29 5 CPI( ) - 0.9%
5/29 5 20.6 21.6
5/29 1 GDP( ) 0.8% 4.7%
5/31 5 PMI 51.0 50.8
5/31 5 PMI - 53.2

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.53 (5/21)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 185.0 (5/21) 5 : 130.5
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.06 (5/21)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 453.40 (5/21) 5 : 355.9
/ /

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.81 (5/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 737.3 (5/21) 5 : 475.9
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.45 (5/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 681.0 (5/21) 5 : 448.7

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.90 (5/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 640.0 (5/21) 5 : 389.8
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.57 (5/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 805.2 (5/21) 5 : 530.4

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.02 (5/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 525.06 (5/21) 5 : 356.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.56 (5/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 498.28 (5/21) 5 : 344.2

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 9.32 (5/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 879.0 (5/21) 5 : 577.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.40 (5/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 385.92 (5/21) 5 : 263.3

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 19.2 (5/21) 5 : 15.9
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.0 (5/21) 5 : 16.9
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.8 (5/21) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 17.7 (5/21) 5 : 16.2
/ /

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.2 (5/21) 5 : 11.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.7 (5/21) 5 : 12.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 16.2 (5/21) 5 : 17.2
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.5 (5/21) 5 : 11.9

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ /
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 29.53 (5/21) 5 : 16.54
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.6 (5/21) 5 : 64.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 54.1 (5/21) 5 : 65.6
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 616.5 (5/21) 5 : 378.8

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/5/21 '16/5/21 '17/5/21 '18/5/21 '19/5/21 '20/5/21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/5/21 '16/5/21 '17/5/21 '18/5/21 '19/5/21 '20/5/21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/5/21 '16/5/21 '17/5/21 '18/5/21 '19/5/21 '20/5/21
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/5/21 '16/5/21 '17/5/21 '18/5/21 '19/5/21 '20/5/21
5 1
28.2% 1.0%
28.6% 0.0%
5 1
19.0% 2.8%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
23.6% 1.9%
29.7% 0.1%
5 1
18.8% 3.8%
25.9% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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