柏瑞週報 20190119

1. 19 January
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
10
2.7842% 10
0.262%
•
0.69%
0.71% 24.18 461.84
• 0.94%
0.46%
0.25%
0.17%
Bloomberg 2019/1/18
0.37
0.33
0.48
1.06
3.90
1.27
1.19
0.71
1.68
2.32
2.45
1.73
2.23
1.58
2.52
-0.50
-0.40
-0.19
0.13
0.17
0.23
0.25
0.43
0.46
0.69
0.71
0.73
0.75
0.89
0.94
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500
2.87%
•
DAX 2.92% 600
2.25%
• 225 1.50%
UNIQLO Fast Retailing
•
1.65% H 1.74%
•
0.50% 4.08%
Bloomberg 2019/1/18
4.18
1.21
0.11
-2.13
0.75
5.71
4.14
3.97
13.72
4.95
4.87
6.36
10.95
5.92
4.89
4.33
0.50
0.79
1.05
1.50
1.65
1.69
1.71
1.74
1.82
2.16
2.25
2.41
2.60
2.66
2.87
2.92
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
H
MSCI
MSCI
600
RTS
BOVESPA
MSCI
500
DAX
% %

5. PAGE 4
• OPEC( )
1
OPEC
12 12 OPEC
71.5
• 1 11
268.3 ( )
Bloomberg EIA 2019/1/18
2.59
-2.82
0.99
-0.97
1.37
-2.86
-5.09
4.47
9.09
2.38
11.45
16.35
-0.45
-0.34
0.71
0.93
1.85
1.85
1.93
2.32
3.14
3.53
3.67
4.28
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 1 16 48
77 8
16 34 14
• 28 13
28 2017 4
25
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/1/17

8. PAGE 7
•
Mnuchin
2024
( 1)
• 12 CPI(
) 1.9%
CPI 2.2%( 2)
•
• Trump
Davos
Hassett
Bloomberg 2019/1/18
( 1) S&P 500 K
( 2) CPI( )

9. PAGE 8
•
3.84%( 1)
• 12
BB DCP 1.5
5
• S&P 500 11%
76% ( 2)
58% 4
S&P 500 14.2%
• PG&E PG&E( )
PG&E 11
300
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/1/18
( 2) ( )
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• May
432
202 May
May 1 21
1 29
• 12 CPI(
) 1.6% CPI 1.0%( 1)
(ECB) Draghi
• 2018
(GDP) 1.5% 2017 2.2%
• 12 CPI( )
0.3%
0.3%( 2) CPI
Bloomberg 2019/1/18
( 1) CPI( )
( 2) CPI( )

11. PAGE 10
•
5600
•
2018 12
4.4%
7.6% ( 1)
•
24% ( 2)
•
Moody’s
Bloomberg 2019/1/18
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/1/18
1/21 4 GDP( ) 6.40% 6.50%
1/22 4 GDP( ) 2.30% 2.00%
1/22 12 ( ) -1.50% 1.90%
1/23 11 FHFA ( ) 0.30% 0.30%
1/23 1 -2 -8
1/23 -0.10% -0.10%
1/23-2/1 11 ( ) 4.20% -8.90%
1/23-2/1 12 ( ) 0.10% 0.20%
1/23-2/1 12 ( ) -0.50% 3.20%
1/24 1 Markit 51.3 51.4
1/24 1 Markit 51.5 51.2
1/24 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
1/24 1 Markit 53.5 53.8
1/24 1 Markit 53.9 54.4
1/24 1 4 3
1/25 1 IFO 100.6 101
1/25 12 1.50% --

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 138.0 (1/18) 5 : 125.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.15 (1/18)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.95 (1/18)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 316.28 (1/18) 5 : 319.9

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.93 (1/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 461.8 (1/18) 5 : 454.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.05 (1/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 422.0 (1/18) 5 : 438.4
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.01 (1/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 472.0 (1/18) 5 : 367.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.45 (1/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 575.9 (1/18) 5 : 506.9

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.52 (1/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 370.09 (1/18) 5 : 340.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.09 (1/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 338.05 (1/18) 5 : 332.5

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.94 (1/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 523.0 (1/18) 5 : 571.2
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.48 (1/18)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 278.49 (1/18) 5 : 255.6

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.5 (1/18) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.8 (1/18) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.0 (1/18) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.0 (1/18) 5 : 17.5

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.5 (1/18) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 9.9 (1/18) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 21.3 (1/18) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (1/18) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.80 (1/18) 5 : 14.96
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 53.8 (1/18) 5 : 65.2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.3 (1/18) 5 : 71.6
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 382.7 (1/18) 5 : 365.5

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/18 '15/1/18 '16/1/18 '17/1/18 '18/1/18 '19/1/18
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/1/18 '15/1/18 '16/1/18 '17/1/18 '18/1/18 '19/1/18
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/18 '15/1/18 '16/1/18 '17/1/18 '18/1/18 '19/1/18
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/1/18 '15/1/18 '16/1/18 '17/1/18 '18/1/18 '19/1/18
5 1
35.7% 0.5%
29.6% 0.1%
5 1
19.8% 0.6%
31.7% 0.1%
5 1
27.8% 0.5%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
21.2% 0.5%
26.7% 0.1%
2019/1/18
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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