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柏瑞週報 20190809
- 3. PAGE 2
• Trump
10
3 10
1.7172%
10 -0.56%
30
•
0.55%
0.35% 463.9
• 0.51%
1.52%
0.68%
0.18%
0.05%
5%
Bloomberg 2019/8/8
-0.64
-0.30
-0.06
-0.43
-0.19
-0.63
0.69
1.23
1.11
1.24
0.94
1.99
1.81
1.42
2.09
-0.59
-0.55
-0.44
-0.41
-0.35
-0.05
0.18
0.49
0.51
0.63
0.68
0.74
1.02
1.06
1.17
-
-
% %
- 4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 0.52%
600
3.35%
•
300 3.53%
Sensex
0.83%
225 4%
•
Bovespa 1.95%
Vale
• 0.42%
(GE)
Bloomberg 2019/8/8
-6.37
-4.37
-5.79
-5.92
-3.51
-3.90
-5.57
-6.84
-6.04
-2.39
-2.61
-5.56
-1.27
0.94
-3.60
-0.40
-5.46
-4.40
-4.34
-3.93
-3.53
-3.35
-3.33
-3.16
-2.51
-2.21
-1.52
-0.97
-0.52
-0.42
0.83
1.95
H
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
300
600
DAX
RTS
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
S&P 500
BAML
SENSEX
BOVESPA
% %
- 5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/8/8
•
• 8 2
238.5 ( ) 270
443.7 125
-10.50
-3.11
-8.58
-8.88
-1.60
-5.74
-1.71
-1.00
7.55
-6.48
-2.45
24.84
-5.16
-4.16
-3.72
-2.61
-1.71
-1.44
-0.11
2.05
3.86
4.65
4.78
8.80
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
- 6. PAGE 5
• 249 152
39 18
62
• 36
67 29
40 17
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/8/7
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
- 9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Clear Channel
Sirius Minerals
Sinclair Broadcast Disney 21
• 7
16.4
3.7%( 2)
3.2%
• S&P 500
9
73% 56%
S&P 500 2 2.8%
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/8/8
( 1)
( 2)
- 10. PAGE 9
• 7 IHS Markit
PMI 52.2 51.5 PMI
47.6 46.5( 1) 2012 12
• Boris Johnson
( 2)
• Matteo Salvini
14
Matteo Salvini
•
Bloomberg 2019/8/8
( 2)
( 1) PMI
- 11. PAGE 10
•
( 1)
• 370
•
( 2)
1 4.25% 1
1.50% 35
2019-2020
•
2
10 9,330
Paulo Guedes
Bloomberg 2019/8/8
( 1)
( 2)
- 13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/8/8
/ /
8/9-8/15 7 ( ) 1625.0b 2260.0b
8/9-8/15 7 M2( ) 8.40% 8.50%
8/12 2 GDP 0.80% 0.50%
8/13 8 ZEW -28 -24.5
8/13 7 NFIB 104.8 103.3
8/13 7 CPI( ) 3.12% 3.18%
8/13 7 CPI( ) 1.70% 1.60%
8/14 6 ( ) -1.00% -7.80%
8/14 7 ( ) 6.00% 6.30%
8/14 7 ( ) 8.60% 9.80%
8/14 2 GDP ( ) 1.10% 1.10%
8/15 7 ( ) 0.30% 0.40%
8/15 7 ( ) 0.20% 0.00%
8/15 8.00% 8.25%
8/16 6 ( ) 18.5b 20.2b
8/16 7 ( ) 0.60% -0.90%
8/16 8 97.5 98.4
- 14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 119.0 (8/8) 5 : 127.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.97 (8/8)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.31 (8/8)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 359.85 (8/8) 5 : 361.7
- 15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.07 (8/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 463.9 (8/8) 5 : 459.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.05 (8/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 416.0 (8/8) 5 : 441.5
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
- 16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.96 (8/8)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 395.0 (8/8) 5 : 376.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.42 (8/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 578.4 (8/8) 5 : 511.0
- 17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.28 (8/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 345.05 (8/8) 5 : 346.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.12 (8/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 347.47 (8/8) 5 : 335.3
- 18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.33 (8/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 564.0 (8/8) 5 : 563.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.40 (8/8)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 276.06 (8/8) 5 : 256.2
- 19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.7 (8/8) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.1 (8/8) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.7 (8/8) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 14.5 (8/8) 5 : 17.1
- 20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.9 (8/8) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.6 (8/8) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.2 (8/8) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.6 (8/8) 5 : 12.2
- 21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.91 (8/8) 5 : 15.12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 78.6 (8/8) 5 : 65.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.5 (8/8) 5 : 68.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 347.6 (8/8) 5 : 367.8
- 22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/8/8 '15/8/8 '16/8/8 '17/8/8 '18/8/8 '19/8/8
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/8 '15/8/8 '16/8/8 '17/8/8 '18/8/8 '19/8/8
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/8 '15/8/8 '16/8/8 '17/8/8 '18/8/8 '19/8/8
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/8/8 '15/8/8 '16/8/8 '17/8/8 '18/8/8 '19/8/8
5 1
36.6% -0.4%
29.1% 0.0%
5 1
23.2% -0.3%
31.3% 0.1%
5 1
29.9% -0.4%
30.2% 0.1%
5 1
24.8% 0.8%
26.4% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )