柏瑞週報 20201008

1. 8 October
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10 10 0.7868%
8 4.5% 2.6%
10
2 -0.493%
•
0.13% ESG 0.02%
•
0.99% 479
0.87% 525
•
0.62%
0.33%
0.57%
Bloomberg 2020/10/07
-0.42
-0.05
0.28
-0.37
-0.50
-0.16
-0.77
-0.26
-0.49
-1.67
-0.81
-1.47
-2.22
-0.32
-0.97
0.06
-0.73
-0.41
-0.30
-0.13
-0.02
-0.02
0.06
0.18
0.33
0.34
0.53
0.57
0.62
0.75
0.87
0.99
ESG ( )
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
• S&P 500 1.68%
•
600 1.21% DAX
1.32%
• 225 1.03%
(Hino) (Toyota)
2
•
(Tata Consultancy)
•
1.18%
Bloomberg 2020/10/07
-6.12
-6.02
-1.76
-5.65
1.44
0.62
-0.68
-1.31
-7.85
-0.22
1.15
0.20
1.22
-1.39
2.46
3.80
-2.93
-1.54
0.00
0.98
1.03
1.18
1.21
1.32
1.43
1.68
1.84
1.86
2.39
2.47
2.84
4.76
RTS
MSCI
300
BOVESPA
Nikkei 225
BAML
600
DAX
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
H
MSCI
SENSEX
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
80%
0.67% 39.95
• 10 2
(EIA) 50 ( )
200
Bloomberg 2020/10/07
-6.08
0.45
-2.39
-1.62
-3.83
-0.09
-0.78
-0.05
8.59
8.57
5.41
10.40
-1.91
-0.67
0.08
0.10
0.60
0.71
1.05
2.54
2.57
2.69
4.81
5.10
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 110 38
11 18
20
• 21
39 34
37
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/10/01
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• Trump
Trump
Biden Trump 6
• 9
Powell
• 9 ISM PMI
55.4( 2)
49.6 14
9 ISM
57.8
Bloomberg 2020/10/7
( 2) ISM
( 1)

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/10/7
( 2) S&P 500
•
( 1)
•
27
Southeastern Grocers AMN
Healthcare
•
16
Facebook Amazon Alphabet Apple
(Antitrust Laws)
Biden
• S&P 500
FactSet
21%
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• 9
(CPI) -0.3%( 1) 9 CPI
0.2%
Lagarde
• 8
8.1% 7.9%
2020
9.5%
•
8 0.2 8
4.5% 2.6%
•
88.8( 2) 2.1
3
( 1) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/10/07
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/10/7
• 9
(PMI) 51.5( 1)
6
PMI 0.7 55.9
2013 11
• 9 Markit
(PMI) 52 56.8( 2)
2
PMI 15
5 49.8
PMI 8 46 54.6
•
-5.02% 2.12%
(IMF)
-9.1% -5.8%
•
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/10/7
/ /
10/10-15 9 M2( ) 10.40% 10.40%
10/10-15 9 ( ) 2800.0b 3580.0b
10/12-18 (IMF)/ -- --
10/12 8 ( ) 1.50% 6.30%
10/12 9 CPI( ) 6.90% 6.69%
10/13 7 -- 4.00%
10/13 9 NFIB 101.2 100.2
10/13 9 CPI( ) 1.40% 1.30%
10/13 9 CPI( )( ) 1.80% 1.70%
10/13 9 ( ) 9.00% 11.60%
10/14 9 PPI ( ) 0.20% -0.20%
10/14 7 0.50% 0.50%
10/15 9 PPI( ) -1.90% -2.00%
10/15 9 CPI( ) 2.00% 2.40%
10/16 9 ( ) 0.70% 0.60%
10/16 9 ( ) 0.70% 0.40%
10/16 10 ( ) 80.5 80.4

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
/ /
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.07 (10/7)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 128 (10/7) 5 : 130
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.48 (10/7)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 392 (10/7) 5 : 358

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.96 (10/7)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 525 (10/7) 5 : 481
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.91 (10/7)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 479 (10/7) 5 : 451

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.17 (10/7)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 447 (10/7) 5 : 397
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.59 (10/7)
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 726 (10/7) 5 : 498

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.09 (10/7)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 425 (10/7) 5 : 369
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.57 (10/7)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 360 (10/7) 5 : 320

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.12 (10/7)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 648 (10/7) 5 : 579
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.91 (10/7)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 264 (10/7) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.2 (10/7) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.7 (10/7) 5 : 17.3
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.3 (10/7) 5 : 14.7
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.5 (10/7) 5 : 16.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.5 (10/7) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.9 (9/30) 5 : 12.1
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.2 (10/7) 5 : 17.6
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.7 (10/7) 5 : 12.4

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
/ /
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 28.06 (10/7) 5 : 17.25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 57.0 (10/7) 5 : 62.1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 54.6 (10/7) 5 : 64.4
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 381 (10/7) 5 : 383

22. PAGE 21
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/10/7 '16/10/7 '17/10/7 '18/10/7 '19/10/7 '20/10/7
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/10/7 '16/10/7 '17/10/7 '18/10/7 '19/10/7 '20/10/7
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/10/7 '16/10/7 '17/10/7 '18/10/7 '19/10/7 '20/10/7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/10/7 '16/10/7 '17/10/7 '18/10/7 '19/10/7 '20/10/7
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 1
35.6% 1.2%
28.1% 0.0%
5 1
36.9% 0.9%
30.5% 0.1%
5 1
36.3% 1.1%
29.3% 0.1%
5 1
29.4% 0.5%
25.3% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109277
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898