柏瑞週報 20191206

1. 06 December
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.8103%
10
-0.294%
•
0.18%
0.24% 463.5
•
0.09%
0.06%
0.16%
0.94%
Bloomberg 2019/12/05
-0.07
-0.28
0.35
0.59
-0.29
0.48
1.20
0.38
0.70
0.49
0.62
0.17
0.10
0.94
-1.49
-0.49
-0.41
-0.16
-0.12
-0.09
-0.05
-0.03
-0.00
0.01
0.06
0.14
0.18
0.24
0.32
0.94
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
(Trump)
S&P 500 1.15%
• (Trump)
WTO
600 1.61%
•
225
0.47% 300
0.44%
•
0.18%
Bloomberg 2019/12/05
-5.11
-0.39
-0.71
-2.38
1.39
0.44
1.32
-2.65
-2.06
0.21
-3.05
-0.42
-0.19
-3.08
1.75
-3.84
-2.27
-1.61
-1.44
-1.30
-1.15
-0.97
-0.85
-0.72
-0.61
-0.47
-0.44
-0.19
-0.18
0.44
2.15
2.52
H
600
DAX
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
SENSEX
MSCI
RTS
Nikkei 225
MSCI
BAML
300
BOVESPA
MSCI
% %

5. PAGE 4
• OPEC
• 11 29
485 ( ) 150
Bloomberg 2019/12/05
-18.46
-10.57
1.65
0.68
1.10
-3.53
-1.11
-0.88
-5.35
2.10
-0.51
-1.31
-5.25
-1.93
-0.90
-0.75
-0.62
-0.29
-0.15
-0.07
0.26
0.55
1.40
3.86
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 72 26
8 3
18
• 92
69 12
0.5
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/12/04
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
•
12 15
•
(Trump)
• ISM 11
(PMI) 48.1( 1) PMI
53.9( 2)
2012
Bloomberg 2019/12/05
( 1) ISM PMI
( 2) ISM PMI

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Twitter
60
•
(Black Friday) (Cyber Monday)
(Bloomberg)
5.4 689
•
20.3 ( 2)
ADP 11
6.7 15
11
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/12/05

10. PAGE 9
•
24
100% 1
7
3%
Google Facebook Amazon
• 11
(CPI) 1%( 2)
Lagarde
ECB
( 1)
•
15
26 3
(1)
(2)
(3)
GDP 1.4%
( 1)
( 2) CPI
Bloomberg 2019/12/05

11. PAGE 10
• Markit 11
PMI 10 51.1 53.5( 1) PMI
53.2 5
• 3 GDP
0.6%( 2) 2018
•
5.15
4%
•
1.25%
2.2% 2% 2020 2.5% 2.3%
( 1) PMI
( 2) GDP
Bloomberg 2019/12/05

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/12/06
/ /
12/06 ( ) 0.10% -0.60%
12/06 185k 128k
12/06 3.60% 3.60%
12/06 97 96.8
12/09 GDP ( ) 0.20% 0.10%
12/10 CPI( ) 4.20% 3.80%
12/10 PPI( ) -1.50% -1.60%
12/10 ZEW -22 -24.7
12/11 PPI 0.00% -0.40%
12/11 CPI( ) 0.20% 0.40%
12/11 FOMC 1.5% - 1.75% 1.5% - 1.75%
12/11 Selic 4.50% 5.00%
12/12 CPI( ) -- 1.00%
12/12 1 12.50% 14.00%
12/12 ( ) -4.20% -4.30%
12/12 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
12/12 -- --

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.87 (12/5)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 103.0 (12/5) 5 : 127.5
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.15 (12/5)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 338.70 (12/5) 5 : 356.5

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.09 (12/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 463.5 (12/5) 5 : 461.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.58 (12/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 372.0 (12/5) 5 : 439.7

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.68 (12/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 341.0 (12/5) 5 : 377.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.38 (12/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 565.8 (12/5) 5 : 516.4

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.14 (12/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 323.61 (12/5) 5 : 348.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.05 (12/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 329.29 (12/5) 5 : 337.9

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.39 (12/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 664.0 (12/5) 5 : 565.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.40 (12/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 267.42 (12/5) 5 : 257.7

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.0 (12/5) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.2 (12/5) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.9 (12/5) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 17.8 (12/5) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.9 (12/5) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.9 (12/5) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 20.4 (12/5) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.4 (12/5) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.52 (12/5) 5 : 15.18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 63.7 (12/5) 5 : 65.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.4 (12/5) 5 : 67.3
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 327.1 (12/5) 5 : 367.8

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/12/5 '15/12/5 '16/12/5 '17/12/5 '18/12/5 '19/12/5
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/12/5 '15/12/5 '16/12/5 '17/12/5 '18/12/5 '19/12/5
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/5 '15/12/5 '16/12/5 '17/12/5 '18/12/5 '19/12/5
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/12/5 '15/12/5 '16/12/5 '17/12/5 '18/12/5 '19/12/5
5 1
35.8% -0.2%
28.9% 0.1%
5 1
29.3% 0.3%
31.1% 0.1%
5 1
32.6% 0.1%
30.0% 0.1%
5 1
23.2% 0.0%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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•
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