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柏瑞週報 20200313
- 3. PAGE 2
• (WHO)
10
0.8042%
0.5407%
10
10 -0.741%
•
8.28%
726 9.51%
814
•
10.97%
2.2%
9.08%
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
-10.65
-10.59
-10.10
-10.70
-9.71
-10.43
-5.47
-3.11
-4.87
-2.48
-0.95
-2.05
-0.64
0.72
-0.46
4.85
-10.97
-9.51
-9.12
-9.08
-8.28
-8.14
-5.90
-5.49
-4.67
-4.11
-3.88
-3.59
-2.20
-1.41
-1.40
0.46
-
ESG ( )
-
% %
- 4. PAGE 3
• OPEC+
VIX
75.5
•
S&P 500
17.97% 2
•
600 22.54%
225 12.98%
•
300 6.08%
•
8.66%
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
-40.12
-37.79
-36.84
-37.95
-33.37
-31.60
-26.25
-26.60
-20.42
-21.14
-22.22
-15.65
-11.48
-10.65
-9.94
-0.84
-29.11
-29.00
-27.19
-27.00
-23.30
-22.54
-18.48
-17.97
-15.03
-14.80
-12.98
-12.09
-9.49
-9.34
-8.66
-6.08
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
RTS
DAX
600
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
MSCI
H
BAML
300
% %
- 6. PAGE 5
• 47 47
48 29
26
• 259
159 112
70
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/3/11
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
- 8. PAGE 7
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) ( )
• (WHO)
(Pandemic)
NBA Broadway Disney
Trump 30
•
1750 14 (repo)
450 repo
500
9
4.3
• 2 3.5%
27.3 ( 2)
2018
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
- 9. PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) PPI (%)
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
•
•
Del Monte
Foods
• Joe
Biden
6
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warran
Sanders
• 2 (PPI)
-0.6%( 2)
2015 2 (CPI)
- 11. PAGE 10
( 1) CPI/ PPI (%)
( 2) CPI
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
• 2
9,057
2 8,554
3
• 2 (CPI)
5.2%( 1) 5.4%
CPI 1.0% 2
(PPI)
0.4%
• 2 (CPI)
6.58%( 2) 2
6.80%
CPI
•
Bolsonaro
10 450
- 13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/3/13
/ /
3/16 3 6.0 12.9
3/16 2 ( ) -3.0% -
3/16 2 ( ) -3.1% -
3/16 1 ( ) -0.4% -12.5%
3/17 2 ( ) 0.2% 0.3%
3/17 2 ( ) 0.4% -0.3%
3/17 3 ZEW - 10.4
3/19 FOMC ( ) 0.75% 1.25%
3/19 2 0.0% 0.8%
3/19 2 CPI( ) 0.5% 0.7%
3/19 1 ( ) 0.3% 0.0%
3/19 -0.10% -0.10%
3/19 Selic 4.00% 4.25%
3/19 SARB 6.00% 6.25%
3/19 7 4.50% 4.75%
3/20 1 4.00% 4.05%
3/20 5 4.70% 4.75%
- 14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.03 (3/12)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 209.0 (3/12) 5 : 126.2
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.61 (3/12)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 475.75 (3/12) 5 : 352.5
- 15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.78 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 813.5 (3/12) 5 : 458.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.22 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 726.0 (3/12) 5 : 434.5
- 16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.31 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 654.0 (3/12) 5 : 376.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.83 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 715.7 (3/12) 5 : 516.3
- 17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.31 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 537.17 (3/12) 5 : 346.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.45 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 465.10 (3/12) 5 : 335.8
- 18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 11.24 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1040.0 (3/12) 5 : 556.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.10 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 342.03 (3/12) 5 : 257.3
- 19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.8 (3/12) 5 : 15.9
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.0 (3/12) 5 : 16.8
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 10.9 (3/12) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 13.7 (3/12) 5 : 16.3
- 20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 10.6 (3/12) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.3 (3/12) 5 : 12.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 14.9 (3/12) 5 : 17.2
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 8.9 (3/12) 5 : 12.0
- 21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 75.47 (3/12) 5 : 15.32
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 152.6 (3/12) 5 : 65.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.7 (3/12) 5 : 66.5
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 685.4 (3/12) 5 : 366.0
- 22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
5 1
22.5% -8.7%
28.5% 0.1%
5 1
21.13% -8.7%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
21.9% -8.7%
29.7% 0.1%
5 1
20.4% -9.1%
26.0% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
