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13 December
2019
PAGE 2
•
10
1.8922%
Lagarde
Draghi
10 -0.269%
•
0.75%
0.87% 436.2
•
1.08%
9%
0.24%
0.07%
1.39%
3.09% 2.83%
Bloomberg 2019/12/12
0.29
0.97
0.58
-0.39
0.28
0.62
0.94
0.70
0.78
1.17
0.90
1.01
1.16
1.18
1.54
-0.54
-0.27
-0.22
-0.14
-0.12
0.07
0.13
0.16
0.24
0.30
0.36
0.75
0.87
1.08
1.39
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
• 12 15
S&P 500
1.64%
•
Lagarde
600
1.22% DAX
1.28%
•
225 0.54%
300 0.30%
•
RTS 4.65%
•
0.55%
Bloomberg 2019/12/12
0.59
-0.32
-0.40
0.67
0.17
-0.47
5.10
1.70
2.48
2.74
1.24
1.41
-0.71
1.34
4.75
3.28
-0.49
0.30
0.54
0.55
1.22
1.28
1.43
1.51
1.64
2.09
2.59
2.67
2.84
3.40
3.83
4.65
SENSEX
300
Nikkei 225
BAML
600
DAX
BOVESPA
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
H
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
% %
PAGE 4
• OPEC
• 12 6
82 ( ) 292
Bloomberg 2019/12/12
0.92
0.00
2.56
3.45
4.19
-8.45
1.73
-2.04
-0.17
3.75
4.89
-9.96
-0.42
0.27
1.24
1.28
1.28
1.30
1.58
1.58
1.60
4.12
4.55
6.21
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 17 10
8 5
8
• 91
68 12
3
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/12/11
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
Bloomberg 2019/12/12
( 1) S&P 500
( 2)
•
15
1,600
2020 500
2017
( 1)
•
1.5%~1.75%( 2)
3
•
Trump
Trump
FBI
PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2019/12/12
•
( 1)
•
Apollo Global Management
Cox Media
• 11
26.6 ( 2) 18
1
11
3.5% 3.1%
• (Deutsche
bank) Christian Sewing
2020 1
11.84 11.59
PAGE 9
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/12/12
•
Lagarde
1.1%
Lagarde 1
• Boris Johnson
1987
3
Johnson 1 31
• 12 ZEW
-2.1 10.7( 2)
• GDP GDP
0.2%
1.8%
PAGE 10
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/12/12
• 11
1.75 1.39
( 1)
• 4 11
(CPI) 8 4.5%
19.1%
1.4%
5
• 5%
4.5% ( 2)
•
14% 12%
4
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/12/13
/ /
12/16 12 Markit PMI( ) 52.5 52.6
12/16 12 Markit PMI( ) 47.2 46.9
12/16 12 Markit PMI( ) 44.8 44.1
12/16 11 ( ) 5.1% 4.7%
12/16 11 ( ) 7.6% 7.2%
12/16 12 PMI( ) - 48.9
12/17 11 ( ) 0.83% -0.80%
12/18 11 CPI( ) 0.96% 0.70%
12/18 12 IFO 95.7 95.0
12/19 0.75% 0.75%
12/19 -0.100% -0.100%
12/20 3 GDP( ) 2.1% 2.1%
12/20 12 ( ) 99.19 99.20
12/20 11 0.33% 0.00%
12/20 11 0.37% 0.30%
12/20 11 CPI( ) 0.5% 0.2%
12/20 7.25% 7.50%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.93 (12/12)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 99.0 (12/12) 5 : 127.4
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.10 (12/12)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 324.80 (12/12) 5 : 356.2
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.88 (12/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 436.2 (12/12) 5 : 461.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.32 (12/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 339.0 (12/12) 5 : 439.1
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.61 (12/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 328.0 (12/12) 5 : 377.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.43 (12/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 568.9 (12/12) 5 : 516.6
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.01 (12/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 301.33 (12/12) 5 : 348.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.03 (12/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 317.72 (12/12) 5 : 337.8
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.23 (12/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 638.0 (12/12) 5 : 564.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.40 (12/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 265.20 (12/12) 5 : 257.7
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.2 (12/12) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.4 (12/12) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 15.1 (12/12) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 17.9 (12/12) 5 : 17.0
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.3 (12/12) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (12/12) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 20.1 (12/12) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.5 (12/12) 5 : 12.2
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.94 (12/12) 5 : 15.17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 61.6 (12/12) 5 : 65.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.1 (12/12) 5 : 67.3
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 298.3 (12/12) 5 : 367.6
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12
5 1
37.0% 0.5%
28.8% 0.2%
5 1
32.5% 0.6%
31.1% 0.1%
5 1
34.8% 0.6%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
27.0% 1.1%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108252
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20191213

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 1.8922% Lagarde Draghi 10 -0.269% • 0.75% 0.87% 436.2 • 1.08% 9% 0.24% 0.07% 1.39% 3.09% 2.83% Bloomberg 2019/12/12 0.29 0.97 0.58 -0.39 0.28 0.62 0.94 0.70 0.78 1.17 0.90 1.01 1.16 1.18 1.54 -0.54 -0.27 -0.22 -0.14 -0.12 0.07 0.13 0.16 0.24 0.30 0.36 0.75 0.87 1.08 1.39 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • 12 15 S&P 500 1.64% • Lagarde 600 1.22% DAX 1.28% • 225 0.54% 300 0.30% • RTS 4.65% • 0.55% Bloomberg 2019/12/12 0.59 -0.32 -0.40 0.67 0.17 -0.47 5.10 1.70 2.48 2.74 1.24 1.41 -0.71 1.34 4.75 3.28 -0.49 0.30 0.54 0.55 1.22 1.28 1.43 1.51 1.64 2.09 2.59 2.67 2.84 3.40 3.83 4.65 SENSEX 300 Nikkei 225 BAML 600 DAX BOVESPA MSCI S&P 500 MSCI MSCI H MSCI MSCI RTS % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC • 12 6 82 ( ) 292 Bloomberg 2019/12/12 0.92 0.00 2.56 3.45 4.19 -8.45 1.73 -2.04 -0.17 3.75 4.89 -9.96 -0.42 0.27 1.24 1.28 1.28 1.30 1.58 1.58 1.60 4.12 4.55 6.21 LME CRB LME LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 17 10 8 5 8 • 91 68 12 3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/12/11 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 Bloomberg 2019/12/12 ( 1) S&P 500 ( 2) • 15 1,600 2020 500 2017 ( 1) • 1.5%~1.75%( 2) 3 • Trump Trump FBI
  • 9. PAGE 8 ( 1) ( 2) ( ) Bloomberg 2019/12/12 • ( 1) • Apollo Global Management Cox Media • 11 26.6 ( 2) 18 1 11 3.5% 3.1% • (Deutsche bank) Christian Sewing 2020 1 11.84 11.59
  • 10. PAGE 9 ( 1) ( 2) Bloomberg 2019/12/12 • Lagarde 1.1% Lagarde 1 • Boris Johnson 1987 3 Johnson 1 31 • 12 ZEW -2.1 10.7( 2) • GDP GDP 0.2% 1.8%
  • 11. PAGE 10 ( 1) ( 2) Bloomberg 2019/12/12 • 11 1.75 1.39 ( 1) • 4 11 (CPI) 8 4.5% 19.1% 1.4% 5 • 5% 4.5% ( 2) • 14% 12% 4
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2019/12/13 / / 12/16 12 Markit PMI( ) 52.5 52.6 12/16 12 Markit PMI( ) 47.2 46.9 12/16 12 Markit PMI( ) 44.8 44.1 12/16 11 ( ) 5.1% 4.7% 12/16 11 ( ) 7.6% 7.2% 12/16 12 PMI( ) - 48.9 12/17 11 ( ) 0.83% -0.80% 12/18 11 CPI( ) 0.96% 0.70% 12/18 12 IFO 95.7 95.0 12/19 0.75% 0.75% 12/19 -0.100% -0.100% 12/20 3 GDP( ) 2.1% 2.1% 12/20 12 ( ) 99.19 99.20 12/20 11 0.33% 0.00% 12/20 11 0.37% 0.30% 12/20 11 CPI( ) 0.5% 0.2% 12/20 7.25% 7.50%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 2.93 (12/12) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 99.0 (12/12) 5 : 127.4 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.10 (12/12) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 324.80 (12/12) 5 : 356.2
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.88 (12/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 436.2 (12/12) 5 : 461.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.32 (12/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 339.0 (12/12) 5 : 439.1
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.61 (12/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 328.0 (12/12) 5 : 377.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 7.43 (12/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 568.9 (12/12) 5 : 516.6
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 5.01 (12/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 301.33 (12/12) 5 : 348.6 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 5.03 (12/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 317.72 (12/12) 5 : 337.8
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 8.23 (12/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 638.0 (12/12) 5 : 564.8 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.40 (12/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 265.20 (12/12) 5 : 257.7
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 17.2 (12/12) 5 : 16.2 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 18.4 (12/12) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 15.1 (12/12) 5 : 14.9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 17.9 (12/12) 5 : 17.0
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.3 (12/12) 5 : 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.0 (12/12) 5 : 12.7 5 10 15 20 25 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 20.1 (12/12) 5 : 18.3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.5 (12/12) 5 : 12.2
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.94 (12/12) 5 : 15.17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 61.6 (12/12) 5 : 65.6 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 61.1 (12/12) 5 : 67.3 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2012 : 298.3 (12/12) 5 : 367.6
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/12/12 '15/12/12 '16/12/12 '17/12/12 '18/12/12 '19/12/12 5 1 37.0% 0.5% 28.8% 0.2% 5 1 32.5% 0.6% 31.1% 0.1% 5 1 34.8% 0.6% 29.9% 0.1% 5 1 27.0% 1.1% 26.2% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108252 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898