柏瑞週報20190906

1. 6 September
2019

3. PAGE 2
• 10
10
1.559%
3 -0.594%
•
0.19% 0.45%
472.2
• 1.05%
3.11%
0.09%
0.28%
1.63%
5.33%
3.95%
0.1%
Bloomberg 2019/9/5
1.48
1.12
1.46
1.22
-0.09
1.30
1.72
1.66
1.59
0.40
1.69
-1.35
-0.07
2.06
0.76
-0.81
-0.74
-0.44
-0.30
-0.02
0.09
0.13
0.17
0.19
0.28
0.34
0.44
0.45
1.05
1.63
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
10
S&P 500
1.76%
• 600
2.44% DAX 2.43%
225 3.05%
•
300 3.57%
A
H 3.92%
Sensex 1.15%
•
0.31%
15%
Bloomberg 2019/9/5
-0.15
1.54
2.14
4.61
3.61
4.02
4.46
3.20
1.76
4.18
3.08
6.79
-0.40
3.00
2.02
4.34
-1.15
0.31
1.71
1.76
2.10
2.43
2.44
2.81
3.05
3.23
3.39
3.57
3.82
3.92
4.03
4.12
SENSEX
BAML
BOVESPA
S&P 500
MSCI
DAX
600
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
300
MSCI
H
MSCI
RTS
% %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/9/5
•
3
• 8 30
477 ( ) 249
240 152
-5.71
2.94
3.77
-11.47
1.91
0.50
2.16
0.64
1.19
2.81
1.34
17.61
-0.75
-0.72
-0.57
-0.28
-0.21
0.16
0.48
0.61
1.77
2.07
3.22
6.38
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 84 26
4 9
39
• 114
79 33
3 2.1
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/9/4
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• 10
• 8 ISM PMI
49.1( 1) 2016 8
50
50
• 8 Markit
PMI 7 53.0 50.7( 2) 3
5
•
8
(modest pace)
9
(FOMC)
Bloomberg 2019/9/5
( 1) ISM PMI
( 2) Markit PMI

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
9 8
9 200~250
• 8 ADP
19.5 ( 2) 14
• 7
7
6 0.6%
Bloomberg 2019/9/5
( 1)
( 2) ADP

10. PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2019/9/5
( 2) PMI
( 1) Markit PMI
• 8 Markit PMI
51.9
PMI 47.0( 1) 7
• Lagarde
Lagarde
Lagarde
•
10 19
1 31 Boris
Johnson
• 8 PMI
49.3( 2) 4
2016
PMI 53.3 2
35

11. PAGE 10
• 8 PMI
49.5 PMI 50.4
( 1)
8 PMI
52.1 3
4
•
• 2 GDP
5.8% 5% 6
5.7%
•
9 2
Guido
Sandleris IMF 9
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/9/5
( 1) PMI
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/9/6
/ /
9/9 2 GDP ( ) 1.3% 1.8%
9/9 7 ¥2047.2b ¥1211.2b
9/10 8 CPI( ) 2.6% 2.8%
9/10 8 PPI( ) -0.9% -0.3%
9/11 7 ( ) 0.2% 0.2%
9/11-9/18 8 M2 ( ) 8.2% 8.1%
9/12 8 CPI( ) 1.7% 1.8%
9/12 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
9/12 ECB -0.5% -0.4%
9/12 8 CPI( ) 1.4% 1.4%
9/12 7 ( ) -9.8% 13.9%
9/12 8 PPI( ) -0.8% -0.6%
9/12 1 17.13% 19.75%
9/12 7 ( ) 2.6% 2.0%
9/13 9 90.2 89.8
9/13 8 ( ) 0.2% 0.7%
9/13 7 ( ) - 1.3%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.87 (9/5)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 120.0 (9/5) 5 : 127.7
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.18 (9/5)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 355.38 (9/5) 5 : 360.7

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.08 (9/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 472.2 (9/5) 5 : 460.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.70 (9/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 388.0 (9/5) 5 : 442.1

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.76 (9/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 355.0 (9/5) 5 : 377.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.49 (9/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 604.4 (9/5) 5 : 512.9

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.05 (9/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 335.44 (9/5) 5 : 347.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.11 (9/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 358.45 (9/5) 5 : 336.3

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.11 (9/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 652.0 (9/5) 5 : 564.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.26 (9/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 280.73 (9/5) 5 : 256.7

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.0 (9/5) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 17.3 (9/5) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.2 (9/5) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 16.3 (9/5) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.6 (9/5) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.5 (9/5) 5 : 12.6
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 19.3 (9/5) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.8 (9/5) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.27 (9/5) 5 : 15.21
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 79.9 (9/5) 5 : 65.4
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.5 (9/5) 5 : 68.4
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 333.2 (9/5) 5 : 368.3

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/9/5 '15/9/5 '16/9/5 '17/9/5 '18/9/5 '19/9/5
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/9/5 '15/9/5 '16/9/5 '17/9/5 '18/9/5 '19/9/5
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/9/5 '15/9/5 '16/9/5 '17/9/5 '18/9/5 '19/9/5
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/9/5 '15/9/5 '16/9/5 '17/9/5 '18/9/5 '19/9/5
5 1
37.5% 0.3%
29.1% 0.1%
5 1
23.3% 0.2%
31.3% 0.1%
5 1
30.4% 0.3%
30.2% 0.1%
5 1
23% 0.8%
26.3% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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