柏瑞週報 20200619

1. 19 June
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
0.7084%
10
-0.407%
•
1.1%
577 0.61%
629.8
•
IMF
0.54%
1.43%
Bloomberg 2020/6/18
4.85
0.17
0.95
2.25
2.90
5.16
3.27
0.79
4.84
7.09
3.54
5.57
6.87
4.11
6.23
6.09
-1.43
-0.28
-0.10
-0.08
-0.04
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.28
0.50
0.52
0.54
0.61
0.74
0.76
1.10
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 3.77% 600
2.93%
•
225 0.52%
•
300 1.21%
•
0.76% 2.17%
Bloomberg 2020/6/18
18.09
7.50
5.38
11.03
1.95
7.52
9.05
8.35
2.17
3.10
18.39
13.92
7.32
11.06
6.39
5.46
-3.39
-1.42
-0.60
-0.52
-0.28
0.11
0.16
0.67
0.76
1.21
1.52
2.00
2.51
2.60
2.93
3.77
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
Nikkei 225
H
MSCI
MSCI
BAML
300
BOVESPA
SENSEX
MSCI
DAX
600
S&P 500
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC
(JMMC)
7 9
• 6 17
121.5 ( ) 13
Bloomberg 2020/6/18
-2.72
-0.56
7.39
3.20
9.17
3.31
6.17
5.26
5.83
1.38
22.06
19.25
-3.15
-0.28
0.31
0.38
0.70
0.81
1.60
1.88
1.92
2.24
6.88
7.68
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 64 38
35 1
38
• 154
96 25
0.36
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/6/17
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
•
(SMCCF)
6 17 7.14
( 1) 2
SMCCF
70 ETF
•
(Pompeo)
Lighthizer
Trump
• 5
17.7%( 2)
4 5
6
Bloomberg 2020/6/18
( 1)
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
450
Ford PG&E
• 6 Fed
-0.2 5 -48.5
6 56.5 69%
12%
6
• 6 12
151
5
Bloomberg 2020/6/18
( 1)
( 2) ( )

10. PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2020/6/18
• Mnuchin
(OECD)
•
0.1% 1,000
7,450
GDP
14
• 6 ZEW
63.4( 1) 14
•
( 2)
2022
( 1) ZEW ( )
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
( 1) (%)
( 2) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/6/18
• 5
4.4% 2
2.8%
( 1) 7.5%
• 57
• 3 Selic
3 2.25% ( 2)
8
• 3 7
1 4.25% 2018
3
2.3%
0.9%~1.9% GDP 5%~6%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/6/19
/ /
6/22 6 -14.1 -18.8
6/22 1 3.80% 3.85%
6/23 5 629k 623k
6/23 6 Markit PMI( ) 47.8 39.8
6/23 6 Markit PMI( ) 44.1 39.4
6/23 5 ( ) - -52.8%
6/24 6 IFO 85.7 79.5
6/24 4 - 76.2
6/25 1 GDP ( ) -5.0% -5.0%
6/25 5 12.0% -17.7%
6/25 1 8.00% 8.25%
6/25 BSP 2.75% 2.75%
6/26 6 79.2 78.9
6/26 5 -3.9% 10.5%
6/26 5 7.7% -13.6%
6/26 5.00% 5.50%
6/28 5 ( ) - -4.3%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.17 (6/18)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 147.0 (6/18) 5 : 130.9
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.99 (6/18)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 444.90 (6/18) 5 : 356.7
/ /

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.74 (6/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 629.8 (6/18) 5 : 478.8
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.42 (6/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 577.0 (6/18) 5 : 451.1

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.37 (6/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 515.0 (6/18) 5 : 392.5
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.09 (6/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 754.2 (6/18) 5 : 534.7

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.56 (6/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 473.77 (6/18) 5 : 358.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.00 (6/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 441.45 (6/18) 5 : 346.2

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.37 (6/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 782.0 (6/18) 5 : 579.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.17 (6/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 358.47 (6/18) 5 : 265.1

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.4 (6/18) 5 : 15.9
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.8 (6/18) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.0 (6/18) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 19.9 (6/18) 5 : 16.2
/ /

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.2 (6/18) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.3 (6/18) 5 : 12.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 19.0 (6/18) 5 : 17.3
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.4 (6/18) 5 : 12.0

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ /
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 32.94 (6/18) 5 : 16.77
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.2 (6/18) 5 : 64.3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 54.6 (6/18) 5 : 65.3
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 481.0 (6/18) 5 : 381.0

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/6/18 '16/6/18 '17/6/18 '18/6/18 '19/6/18 '20/6/18
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/6/18 '16/6/18 '17/6/18 '18/6/18 '19/6/18 '20/6/18
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/6/18 '16/6/18 '17/6/18 '18/6/18 '19/6/18 '20/6/18
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/6/18 '16/6/18 '17/6/18 '18/6/18 '19/6/18 '20/6/18
5 1
31.4% 0.8%
28.4% 0.1%
5 1
25.8% 0.7%
30.8% 0.1%
5 1
28.6% 0.7%
29.6% 0.1%
5 1
24.4% 0.2%
25.6% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR109168
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
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