柏瑞週報 20200515

1. 15 May
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10 0.6218%
10 -0.543%
•
0.37% 750
812.2
•
0.4% 650
IMF Kristalina Georgieva
10.3%
0.66%
-1.17
-1.05
0.47
-0.16
0.53
-0.28
-0.50
0.91
1.27
2.75
1.41
0.95
2.74
1.57
2.72
2.11
-0.67
-0.37
-0.16
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
0.04
0.19
0.40
0.52
0.58
0.66
0.67
0.71
0.88
1.17
ESG ( )
-
-
% %
Bloomberg 2020/5/14

4. PAGE 3
•
• Anthony Fauci
Powell
S&P 500 1%
•
DAX
3.92% 600 3.33%
• 5
225
1.22%
300
• 0.90%
Bloomberg 2020/5/14
-3.36
-2.15
-2.67
-8.68
-4.77
-0.24
1.41
0.23
0.31
-1.63
4.34
2.60
0.51
2.15
-1.14
1.41
-3.92
-3.33
-2.09
-1.24
-1.21
-1.09
-1.02
-1.00
-0.90
-0.79
-0.57
0.01
0.44
0.70
1.14
1.22
DAX
600
RTS
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
S&P 500
BAML
H
300
MSCI
MSCI
BOVESPA
Nikkei 225
% %

5. PAGE 4
• 6
100 OPEC
6
• 5 8
75 ( )
410
Bloomberg 2020/5/14
-8.47
1.79
1.54
0.76
-1.18
-1.90
-2.61
-2.29
0.19
10.17
5.17
37.05
-3.88
-2.32
-2.09
-1.37
-0.86
-0.67
-0.16
0.44
0.83
4.44
5.67
17.03
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 62 15
16 31
56
• 158
81 61
5
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/5/13
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
( 1)
( 2)
•
Powell
• ETF 5 12
ETF
ETF
3
•
Trump
Bloomberg 2020/5/14

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
200
Uber
(Viking Cruises) BMC
• 86% S&P 500
66% 5
Under
Armour
Cisco
• 4 CPI 1.4%
-0.4%( 2) 1957
4 (PPI) -1.2%
2015
( 1)
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2020/5/14

10. PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2020/5/14
( 1) GDP (%)
( 2) ( )
•
5,400
3,000
• 3
3 GDP
5.8%( 1) 1
GDP 2019 4 2%
2.5%
• 3
32.1% 1 9,710 ( 2)
85.2% 1,031 3
12.2% 6 1,974 2016 7
4.2% 6 943
11

11. PAGE 10
( 1)
( 2) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/5/14
• 4
3.09 ( 1) 1.7
4 M2
11.1% 3
• 4 (CPI)
3.3%( 2) 4.3%
(PPI)
3.1% 4
• 20
GDP
10%
•
650
5/22
4/22 3 5
9

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/5/15
/ /
5/18 1 GDP ( ) -4.8% -7.1%
5/19 5 ZEW - 25.2
5/19 7 4.25% 4.50%
5/20 4 CPI( ) 0.5% 0.7%
5/20 5 -20.9 -22.7
5/20 3 ( ) -7.2% 2.3%
5/20 1 3.81% 3.85%
5/20 5 4.62% 4.65%
5/21 5 Markit PMI( ) 38.9 36.1
5/21 4 -5.1% -6.7%
5/21 5 -42.0 -56.6
5/21 5 PMI( ) - 41.9
5/21 SARB 3.75% 4.25%
5/21 1 - 8.75%
5/22 5 Markit PMI( ) 39.0 33.4
5/22 5 Markit PMI( ) 38.5 34.5
5/22 4 CPI( ) 0.1% 0.4%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.74 (5/14)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 212.0 (5/14) 5 : 130.3
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.16 (5/14)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 467.89 (5/14) 5 : 355.6
/ /

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.54 (5/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 812.2 (5/14) 5 : 474.7
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.14 (5/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 750.0 (5/14) 5 : 447.6

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.37 (5/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 679.0 (5/14) 5 : 388.6
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.99 (5/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 850.7 (5/14) 5 : 529.1

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.59 (5/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 589.92 (5/14) 5 : 355.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.84 (5/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 530.62 (5/14) 5 : 343.4

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 10.30 (5/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 982.0 (5/14) 5 : 576.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.59 (5/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 409.29 (5/14) 5 : 262.7

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.4 (5/14) 5 : 15.9
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.3 (5/14) 5 : 16.9
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.0 (5/14) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 17.0 (5/14) 5 : 16.2
/ /

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.7 (5/14) 5 : 11.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.8 (5/14) 5 : 12.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 16.2 (5/14) 5 : 17.2
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.0 (5/14) 5 : 11.9

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ /
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 32.61 (5/14) 5 : 16.47
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 59.1 (5/14) 5 : 64.9
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 52.8 (5/14) 5 : 65.7
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 676.5 (5/14) 5 : 377.6

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/5/14 '16/5/14 '17/5/14 '18/5/14 '19/5/14 '20/5/14
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/5/14 '16/5/14 '17/5/14 '18/5/14 '19/5/14 '20/5/14
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/5/14 '16/5/14 '17/5/14 '18/5/14 '19/5/14 '20/5/14
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/5/14 '16/5/14 '17/5/14 '18/5/14 '19/5/14 '20/5/14
5 1
27.2% -0.9%
28.6% 0.1%
5 1
15.6% -0.1%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
21.4% -0.5%
29.7% 0.1%
5 1
14.4% 0.5%
25.9% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR109130
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
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