全球股市普遍收漲-美國新公布經濟數據表現優異、聯準會持續看好經濟將維持溫和擴張...

1. 29 November
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.7654%
10 -0.361%
•
0.46% 0.32%
465.4
•
0.40%
(IMF)
11.74%
0.20%
0.12% 0.92%
Bloomberg 2019/11/28
-2.57
0.54
0.74
0.63
0.65
0.44
0.91
0.56
0.74
-0.06
-0.26
0.03
-0.00
1.21
0.95
-0.92
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.19
0.20
0.27
0.32
0.40
0.42
0.46
0.48
0.77
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
• (Trump)
S&P 500
1.61%
•
600 1.75%
• 225
1.61% 300
0.70%
•
0.31
-6.70
1.93
-1.64
-0.34
2.67
0.71
0.10
2.35
-0.08
2.87
4.79
2.36
2.37
3.76
2.57
-1.25
-1.24
-1.07
-0.70
0.00
0.51
0.56
0.74
0.82
1.07
1.29
1.37
1.53
1.61
1.61
1.75
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
300
BAML
MSCI
BOVESPA
DAX
H
MSCI
SENSEX
MSCI
Nikkei 225
S&P 500
600
% %
Bloomberg 2019/11/28

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC
• 11 22
157 ( ) 87
-15.81
-4.21
-5.53
4.12
-2.57
-10.44
1.16
3.74
0.86
-0.27
3.27
0.19
-3.28
-2.11
-1.56
-0.80
-0.70
-0.65
-0.21
-0.16
1.04
1.08
3.83
4.96
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
Bloomberg 2019/11/28

6. PAGE 5
• 28 9
4 2
31
• 97
65 5
12
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/11/27
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• GDP
2.1%( 1) 1.9%
11 Markit
52.2( 2)
51.6
•
(Trump)
12
• (FED)
12
Bloomberg 2019/11/28
( 1) GDP
( 2) Markit PMI

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Melco Resorts 10
• Charles
Schwab 260 TD Ameritrade
Tiffany 162 LVMH
(Novartis) 97
(Medicines Co)
•
11 125.5( 2) 4
2020
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/11/28

10. PAGE 9
• Markit 11
PMI 50.3 PMI 46.6 PMI
51.5 PMI
51.3 38
PMI PMI
50
• 12 12
• 10 7.1
8 10 10 1
4
10
3 GDP IMF
( 2)
( 1) Markit PMI
Bloomberg 2019/11/28

11. PAGE 10
• 60 3
5 10 20
• 10
4,275.6 9.9%( 1)
2011
•
Paulo
Guedes
11 26
•
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/11/28

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/11/29
/ /
11/29 2.40% 2.40%
11/29 ( ) -2.00% 1.70%
11/29 7 1.25% 1.25%
11/29 ( ) 6.0k 6.0k
11/29 1.30% 3.70%
11/30 PMI 49.5 49.3
11/30 ( ) -10.00% -14.70%
12/02 51.3 51.7
12/02 Markit -- 51.6
12/02 ISM 49.5 48.3
12/03 RBA 0.75% 0.75%
12/03 GDP 1.10% 1.00%
12/04 GDP ( ) 0.50% 0.50%
12/04 1.75% 1.75%
12/05 RBI 4.90% 5.15%
12/05 -- 213k
12/05 -- 0.60%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.87 (11/27)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 105.0 (11/27) 5 : 127.6
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.11 (11/28)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 334.35 (11/28) 5 : 356.9

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.12 (11/28)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 465.4 (11/28) 5 : 461.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.61 (11/27)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 373.0 (11/27) 5 : 440.1

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.69 (11/28)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 345.0 (11/28) 5 : 377.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.26 (11/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 558.0 (11/27) 5 : 516.2

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.21 (11/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 334.01 (11/27) 5 : 348.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.04 (11/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 331.29 (11/27) 5 : 337.9

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.38 (11/27)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 663.0 (11/27) 5 : 565.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.35 (11/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 265.42 (11/27) 5 : 257.6

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.1 (11/28) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.4 (11/27) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 15.1 (11/28) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 17.7 (11/28) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.0 (11/28) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.9 (11/28) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 20.5 (11/28) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (11/28) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.75 (11/27) 5 : 15.17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 57.6 (11/27) 5 : 65.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 59.7 (11/28) 5 : 67.4
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 324.2 (11/27) 5 : 367.8

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/11/28 '15/11/28 '16/11/28 '17/11/28 '18/11/28 '19/11/28
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/11/28 '15/11/28 '16/11/28 '17/11/28 '18/11/28 '19/11/28
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/11/28 '15/11/28 '16/11/28 '17/11/28 '18/11/28 '19/11/28
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/11/28 '15/11/28 '16/11/28 '17/11/28 '18/11/28 '19/11/28
5 1
34.9% 0.0%
28.8% 0.3%
5 1
27.4% 0.4%
31.1% 0.1%
5 1
31.2% 0.2%
30.0% 0.2%
5 1
22.1% 0.1%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108242
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
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( )
•
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