More Related Content Similar to 柏瑞週報 20190524 (19) More from Pinebridge (20) 柏瑞週報 201905243. PAGE 2
•
FOMC
10 2.3185%
10
• 0.12%
CCC
0.69% 0.17%
451.26
•
0.12%
0.15% 0.42%
Bloomberg 2019/5/23
-1.50
-1.35
-0.68
-0.48
0.02
0.24
0.07
0.57
0.92
0.87
1.10
0.95
0.98
1.23
1.77
-0.42
-0.19
-0.17
-0.12
0.03
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.19
0.20
0.42
0.66
-
-
% %
4. PAGE 3
• 6 G20
•
S&P 500 1.88%
•
600
2.37% DAX
•
300 4.27%
• SENSEX
3.79%
BOVESPA 4.32%
• 0.14%
Bloomberg 2019/5/23
-10.82
-11.34
-10.46
-2.31
-9.63
-4.49
-4.66
-3.80
-6.51
0.55
-4.68
-4.98
-0.18
-5.94
0.64
-2.10
-4.27
-3.80
-3.14
-2.91
-2.60
-2.37
-1.90
-1.88
-1.59
-0.14
0.42
0.42
1.12
1.70
3.79
4.32
300
H
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
600
MSCI
500
MSCI
Nikkei 225
RTS
MSCI
SENSEX
BOVESPA
% %
5. PAGE 4
•
• 5 17
474 ( ) 170
371.6
Bloomberg EIA 2019/5/23
-12.65
-9.06
-8.30
-3.67
-5.69
-7.51
-4.00
-4.70
0.86
7.18
-11.87
10.96
-7.89
-6.69
-4.44
-3.36
-2.97
-2.85
-2.31
-2.17
-0.25
0.70
1.02
2.84
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
6. PAGE 5
• 9 59
19 2
39
• 64 53
18 6
12
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/5/22
8. PAGE 7
• FOMC
•
• 90
• PMI 5 Markit PMI
53 50.9 PMI 52.6 50.6
PMI 53 50.9 PMI
50
Bloomberg 2019/5/23
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) Markit
9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Taylor Morrison 3
•
5 97.2 102.4
2004 1
49
• T-Mobile
260 Sprint
(FCC)
Sprint T-Mobile
FCC
Sprint
Bloomberg 2019/5/23
( 2)
( 1)
10. PAGE 9
• 5 PMI
47.7 4
GDP 0.4% 5
PMI 44.3 IFO
• 4
•
May
May 5/24
• GDP
2.1%( 2) 0.2%
5 PMI 49.6
5
6
Bloomberg 2019/5/23
( 1) PMI
( 2) GDP
13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
5/28 3 FHFA ( ) - 0.3%
5/28 6 GfK 10.4 10.4
5/28 4 M3 ( ) 4.3% 4.5%
5/28 5 -6.5 -6.5
5/29 1.75% 1.75%
5/30 1 GDP ( ) 3.1% 3.2%
5/30 1 GDP ( ) 0.5% 1.1%
5/31 5 101.5 102.4
5/31 4 0.3% 0.1%
5/31 4 0.2% 0.9%
5/31 4 ( ) 1.3% -2.1%
5/31 5 CPI( ) 1.6% 2.0%
5/31 5 PMI 49.9 50.1
5/31 5 PMI 54.3 54.3
5/31 4 ( ) 0.2% -0.6%
5/31 4 2.4% 2.5%
5/31 7 1.75% 1.75%
14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 122.0 (5/23) 5 : 126.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.54 (5/23)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.57 (5/23)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 324.95 (5/23) 5 : 319.1
15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.41 (5/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 451.3 (5/23) 5 : 456.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.38 (5/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 398.0 (5/23) 5 : 439.9
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.31 (5/23)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 401.0 (5/23) 5 : 374.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.53 (5/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 527.5 (5/23) 5 : 507.8
17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.04 (5/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 367.11 (5/23) 5 : 342.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.63 (5/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 340.59 (5/23) 5 : 333.2
18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.82 (5/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 559.0 (5/23) 5 : 563.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.89 (5/23)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 262.84 (5/23) 5 : 255.2
19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.6 (5/23) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.9 (5/23) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.9 (5/23) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 14.9 (5/23) 5 : 17.3
20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (5/23) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (5/23) 5 : 12.9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 18.7 (5/23) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (5/23) 5 : 12.8
21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.92 (5/23) 5 : 14.99
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 61.1 (5/23) 5 : 64.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.4 (5/23) 5 : 69.9
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 363.8 (5/23) 5 : 366.6
22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/23 '15/5/23 '16/5/23 '17/5/23 '18/5/23 '19/5/23
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/5/23 '15/5/23 '16/5/23 '17/5/23 '18/5/23 '19/5/23
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/23 '15/5/23 '16/5/23 '17/5/23 '18/5/23 '19/5/23
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/5/23 '15/5/23 '16/5/23 '17/5/23 '18/5/23 '19/5/23
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 34.1% -0.1%
利息報酬率 29.4% 0.0%
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 20.0% -0.2%
利息報酬率 31.5% 0.1%
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 27.1% -0.2%
利息報酬率 30.5% 0.1%
過去5年 過去1週
總報酬率 18.1% 0.0%
利息報酬率 26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )