This document provides a summary of global economic indicators and market performance in September 2020. Section I discusses declines in major global stock market indices from August 31 to September 11, with the MSCI ACWI down 3.5% and S&P 500 down 2.8%. Section II reviews economic data, with US GDP falling by a revised 9.1% annualized rate in Q2 and Eurozone GDP declining by 11.8%. Section III examines bond markets, with investment grade credit spreads widening and high yield default rates rising. Section IV looks at various commodity prices. Section V outlines some key central bank meetings and economic data releases remaining in 2020.

1. September
2020
2020 4

2. I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.

3. I.

4. PAGE 3
MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI MSCI
300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI
ESG MSCI ( )
(NEXGEM) - - -
- - -
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
-6.4
-33.7
-10.7
-1.2
-24.8
7.6
-18.7
5.0
-14.1
17.6
-6.0
-11.9
3.5
3.2
8.3
19.1
9.1
9.6
18.4
0.1
21.3
3.2
2.0
13.7
24.5
3.5
4.6
14.8
5.5
14.98
3 % %
3.0
5.6
4.9
-4.4
0.7
4.8
3.1
-1.9
1.4
-2.7
1.7
1.3
1.7
6.9
5.3
8.8
8.7
3.6
4.7
3.2
7.7
4.9
6.1
15.1
7.9
5.4
6.7
8.7
0.3
1.3
3.7
0.1
-
-
ESG
3 % %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
-17.3
-16.2
-3.0
-26.8
1.7
1.9
-10.1
5.1
0.9
2.6
6.4
-4.4
3.6
-5.3
2.8
-2.9
4.2
2.1
1.4
10.6
8.3
1.8
7.5
-6.3
3 % %
8.0
29.7
-31.4
-30.2
-17.5
24.0
13.7
28.2
20.1
15.9
LME
CRB
3 % %

6. II.

7. PAGE 6
•
•
• 2020
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
GDP( ) -9.1% (2020/6)
40
45
50
55
60
65
2017/8 2018/2 2018/8 2019/2 2019/8 2020/2
PMI 56.0 (2020/8) PMI 58.1 (2020/7)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CPI 1.0% (2020/7) CPI 1.6% (2020/7)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
10.2% (2020/7)

8. PAGE 7
• 0%~0.25%
• Fed 2%
Fed
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 2020/9/11
( 0.25%)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
( ) 0.25% (2020/8/31)

9. PAGE 8
•
• 7,500
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
CPI -0.2% (2020/8) CPI 0.4% (2020/8)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 2019/9 2020/3
PMI 51.7 (2020/8) PMI 50.1 (2020/8)
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
GDP( ) -15.0% (2020/6)
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
7.9% (2020/7)

10. PAGE 9
• 2%
(PEPP) 1.35
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 2020/9/11
( 0.1%)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0.0% (2020/8/31)
-0.5% (2020/8/31)

11. PAGE 10
• 10 GDP
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
GDP( ) -9.9% (2020/6)
20
30
40
50
60
2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 2019/9 2020/3
PMI 47.2 (2020/8) PMI 45.0 (2020/8)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
CPI 0.3% (2020/7) CPI 0.3% (2020/7)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2.9% (2020/7)

12. PAGE 11
• 0% 10 3
2020 GDP -4.5% -5.7%
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 2020/9/11
( 0.1%)
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
-0.1% (2020/8/31)

13. PAGE 12
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
GDP( ) -4.3% (2020/6)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
CPI 3.0% (2020/6)
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
5.1% (2020/3)
30
35
40
45
50
55
2017/10 2018/4 2018/10 2019/4 2019/10 2020/4
PMI 52.5 (2020/8) PMI 49.3 (2020/7)

14. III.

15. PAGE 14
•
10 0.5%~1%
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
10 -0.397% (2020/8/31)
2 -0.652% (2020/8/31)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
10 0.705% (2020/8/31)
2 0.131% (2020/8/31)

16. PAGE 15
• 3
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
J.P. Morgan 2020/8
70bp
120bp
170bp
220bp
270bp
320bp
370bp
420bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
129bp (2020/8/31)
5
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2.00% (2020/8/31) 5

17. PAGE 16
• 4 ETF
(CCC )
BB B
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
BofA Global Research 2020/8
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
1000bp
1100bp
1200bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
477bp (2020/8/31)
5
7.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
BofA Ltm Par-weighted Default Rate
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5.86% (2020/8/31)

18. PAGE 17
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 (EMBI) (NEXGEM)
J.P. Morgan 2020/9/10
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
1000bp
1100bp
1200bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
434bp (2020/8/31)
5
654bp (2020/8/31)
5
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5.06% (2020/8/31) 5

19. PAGE 18
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 (CEMBI)
BofA Global Research 2020/8
4.0
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
LTMIssuerDefaultRate,Pct
BofA EM HY
150bp
250bp
350bp
450bp
550bp
650bp
750bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
354bp (2020/8/31) 5
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4.08% (2020/8/31) 5

20. PAGE 19
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
7.08% (2020/8/31) 5
•
( )
Bloomberg 2020/8/31
BofA Global Research 2020/9/8
125 bp
175 bp
225 bp
275 bp
325 bp
375 bp
425 bp
475 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
254bp (2020/8/31) 5

21. IV.

22. PAGE 21
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 12
Financial Times Bloomberg 2020/8/26 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey Bloomberg 2020/8/18
(%)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
500 22.8 (2020/8/31) 5
▼
▼
VIX
VIX (8/26)

23. PAGE 22
•
Bloomberg 2020/9/9 12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
600 17.7 (2020/8/31)
5
0
200
400
600
2020/2 2020/4 2020/6 2020/8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2019/1 2019/4 2019/7 2019/10 2020/1 2020/4 2020/7
Markit PMI Markit PMI

24. PAGE 23
• /
( )
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 12
Morgan Stanley 2020/8/27
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
300 14.4 (2020/8/31) 5
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2019/1 2019/4 2019/7 2019/10 2020/1 2020/4 2020/7
PMI PMI

25. PAGE 24
•
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 12
CDSL SEBI PineBridge Investments 2020/9
( )( )
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MSCI 22.2 (2020/8/31) 5

26. PAGE 25
•
Bloomberg 2020/9/9 12
HSBC 2020/7/10
Selic
( )
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BOVESPA 16.6 (2020/8/31)
5
財政
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2020/2 2020/4 2020/6 2020/8

27. PAGE 26
• --
5
Bloomberg 2020/8/31 ICE
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 416bp (2020/8/31) 5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.55% (2020/8/31)

28. V.

29. PAGE 28
(CCC )
BB B
2020/9
4

30. PAGE 29
/
--
5
2020/9
4

32. PAGE 31
Barclays Research 2020/9/11
2020 10
• 10/12-18 IMF
• 10/28-29 BOJ
• 10/29 ECB
2020 11
• 11/3
• 11/4-5 FED (FOMC)
• 11/5 BOE
2020 12
• 12/10 ECB
• 12/15-16 FED (FOMC)
• 12/17-18 BOJ
• 12/31

33. PAGE 32PAGE 32PAGE 32PAGE 32
2020/09
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