柏瑞週報 20200717

1. 17 July
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
0.6168%
10 -0.465%
•
0.93% 39 558
0.74% 21
616
• 0.25%
0.24%
0.17%
0.43%
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
0.46
1.54
1.25
1.13
1.32
0.18
1.29
1.84
1.26
1.94
1.41
0.66
1.66
2.31
0.71
0.15
-0.26
-0.22
0.03
0.15
0.17
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.43
0.45
0.54
0.74
0.93
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500
2.02%
7,500
600 2.33%
DAX 3.09%
•
225
1.07% 2 GDP
300 6.70%
•
0.71%
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
12.50
2.70
6.59
5.67
-1.83
-2.63
8.53
5.61
1.88
1.18
0.83
7.51
3.45
2.91
2.42
4.54
-6.70
-6.01
-3.93
-3.12
-1.17
-0.75
-0.72
-0.29
0.52
0.71
1.07
1.40
1.47
2.02
2.33
3.09
300
H
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
SENSEX
MSCI
BAML
Nikkei 225
BOVESPA
MSCI
S&P 500
600
DAX
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
IEA
OPEC+ 107%
OPEC+ 8
970 / 770 /
• 7 10
749 ( )
210
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
0.38
4.68
4.09
3.06
3.33
4.57
3.34
7.91
12.36
5.88
6.18
11.53
-5.30
-2.27
-0.35
-0.33
0.26
0.39
1.59
1.95
2.17
2.41
2.85
3.22
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 48 17
13 1
17
• 93
79 15
19
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/15
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• Larry Kudlow
Trump
•
7
Brainard Fed
8 600
8,640 ( 1)
• 6
7.5%( 2) 2
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
( 2) ( )
( 1)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 12
Carnival
Cruise Line 10
Norwegian Cruise
Line
•
S&P 500
200 S&P 500
2 10.8% EPS
-44.6%
3.8% EPS
-21.5%
Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs J.P Morgan
Domino’s Pepsi
Netflix Bank of America
• 7 11
130 ( 2)
1 17
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
( 1)
( 2) ( )

10. PAGE 9
•
2%
(PEPP)
1.35 Lagarde
• 7 ZEW
6 58.6 59.6( 1)
7 ZEW 59.3
• 5 GDP 1.8%
24.0%
9 11
1,100
•
-0.1%( 2) 0% 10
3
2020 GDP -4.5% -5.7%
( 1) ZEW
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/7/16

11. PAGE 10
GDP
( 1) GDP
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
• GDP 2 GDP
3.2%( 1) 2.5%
3.1% 6
4.8%
1.8%
• 6 1.81
M2 11.1%
6 3.43
8,099
•
6 (CPI) 6.09%
5.3%
•
1 4%( 2)
2016
4

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/7/17
/ /
7/20 1 3.85% 3.85%
7/20 5 4.65% 4.65%
7/21 6 4.29 2.61
7/21 6 CPI( ) 0.1% 0.1%
7/21 6 ( ) - -32.0%
7/22 7 PMI( ) - 40.1
7/23 6 3.4% 2.8%
7/23 - 44.3
7/23 7 -11.8 -14.7
7/23 2 GDP( ) -2.1% 1.4%
7/23 SARB 3.50% 3.75%
7/23 1 8.25% 8.25%
7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 51.9 49.8
7/24 6 4.76m 3.91m
7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 49.3 47.4
7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 47.6 45.2
7/24 4.25% 4.50%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.03 (7/16)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 138 (7/16) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.89 (7/16)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 442 (7/16) 5 : 357

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.77 (7/16)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.58 (7/16)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 616 (7/16) 5 : 481
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 558 (7/16) 5 : 453

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.79 (7/16)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.84 (7/16)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 512 (7/16) 5 : 395
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 763 (7/16) 5 : 491

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.36 (7/16)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.82 (7/16)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 477 (7/16) 5 : 367
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 412 (7/16) 5 : 321

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.19 (7/16)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.98 (7/16)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 770 (7/16) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 299 (7/16) 5 : 216

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.7 (7/16) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.2 (7/16) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.5 (7/16) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.3 (7/16) 5 : 16.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.8 (7/16) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.6 (7/16) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.6 (7/16) 5 : 17.4
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.8 (7/16) 5 : 12.1
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 28.00 (7/16) 5 : 17.00
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 46.4 (7/16) 5 : 63.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.1 (7/16) 5 : 65.0
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 483 (7/16) 5 : 383
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
5 1
31.4% 0.7%
28.3% 0.1%
5 1
28.0% 0.9%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
29.7% 0.8%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
27.5% 0.5%
25.5% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109195
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
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