柏瑞週報20200911

1. 11 September
2020

3. PAGE 2
• 10
10
0.7180%
10
0.6772%
10 -0.433%
•
0.41% 493
0.35% 530
•
0.86%
0.11%
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
-1.50
-0.37
-1.57
0.88
-0.80
-0.74
0.11
0.73
-0.10
0.94
-0.38
-0.01
0.42
1.02
0.36
0.82
-1.05
-0.86
-0.81
-0.57
-0.56
-0.43
-0.41
-0.35
-0.32
-0.30
-0.25
-0.18
-0.17
-0.16
-0.14
-0.11
ESG ( )
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
Apple
• S&P 500 3.35%
NASDAQ 4.7%
•
600 0.38%
DAX 1.16% 225
0.98% (SoftBank)
SoftBank
• 300 4.88%
• 0.15%
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
-3.02
-0.63
-3.07
-0.06
0.25
-0.10
-4.46
-2.56
4.06
-5.05
-4.05
-1.57
1.72
1.08
0.78
4.11
-4.88
-3.35
-2.58
-2.58
-2.36
-2.12
-1.87
-1.53
-0.98
-0.80
-0.54
-0.52
-0.39
-0.15
0.38
1.16
300
S&P 500
H
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
Nikkei 225
MSCI
RTS
SENSEX
BAML
600
DAX
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
10
6
7
• 9 4 EIA
203.3 ( )
300
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
-11.06
-10.96
0.81
-0.96
3.82
11.66
0.20
2.60
-4.01
12.36
4.25
17.55
-9.84
-9.10
-3.88
-2.82
-1.74
-0.90
0.53
0.63
0.79
1.19
1.60
3.18
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 35 32
4 3
34
• 128
92 2600
18
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/9/9
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• 5000
(Skinny bill)
52 47 60
300
(Pelosi)
•
2780 90.4
AstraZeneca
AstraZeneca
• Trump
(decouple)
70%
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
( 2) ( )
( 1) S&P 500

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
( 2)
•
( 1)
•
(Yum Brands)
(Quicken Loans)
(NuStar Energy)
• 8 8
137 ( 2)
8 8.4% 3
8
• 9 5
88.4 ( 2)
8 29
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
•
0.5 ( 1)
1.35
2%
Lagarde
• 8
18.2 13.4 15.2
•
Internal Market Bill
•
6.3%( 2) 1.9%
GDP
7.8% 7.9
( 1)
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
( 2) (%)

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
•
• 8 11.05
9 2.05 17.2%
8 1.65 11.6%( 1)
7
• CPI 8 (CPI)
2.4% 2.7%
11.2% 0.1% 1-8
3.5% 8
(PPI) 2 7 ( 2)
• 2 1960
(GDP)
16.4% 51%
GDP 7%
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/9/10
/ /
9/14 8 CPI( ) 6.90% 6.93%
9/15 8 ( ) 0.00% -1.10%
9/15 9 ZEW 70 71.5
9/16 8 ( ) -15.60% -19.20%
9/16 8 ( ) 1.00% 1.20%
9/16 9 NAHB 78 78
9/16 Selic 2.00% 2.00%
9/16 FOMC ( ) 0.25% 0.25%
9/17 7 4.00% 4.00%
9/17 8 CPI( ) -0.20% -0.20%
9/17 0.10% 0.10%
9/17 8 ( ) -3.10% 22.60%
9/17 SARB 3.38% 3.50%
9/17 -- -0.10%
9/18 8 ( ) 0.20% 0.30%
9/18 4.25% 4.25%
9/18 9 74.9 74.1

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.00 (9/10)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 131 (9/10) 5 : 130
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.56 (9/10)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 407 (9/10) 5 : 358

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.95 (9/10)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.96 (9/10)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 530 (9/10) 5 : 481
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 493 (9/10) 5 : 452

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.08 (9/10)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.19 (9/10)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 432 (9/10) 5 : 397
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 678 (9/10) 5 : 496

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.82 (9/10)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.41 (9/10)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 411 (9/10) 5 : 369
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 352 (9/10) 5 : 321

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.05 (9/10)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.77 (9/10)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 648 (9/10) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 258 (9/10) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.3 (9/10) 5 : 16.1
8
13
18
23
28
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.6 (9/10) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.7 (9/10) 5 : 14.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.4 (9/10) 5 : 16.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.7 (9/10) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.9 (9/10) 5 : 12.1
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.3 (9/10) 5 : 17.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.7 (9/10) 5 : 12.3
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 29.71 (9/10) 5 : 17.18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 45.2 (9/10) 5 : 62.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.4 (9/10) 5 : 64.6
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 377 (9/10) 5 : 384
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/9/10 '16/9/10 '17/9/10 '18/9/10 '19/9/10 '20/9/10
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/10 '16/9/10 '17/9/10 '18/9/10 '19/9/10 '20/9/10
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/10 '16/9/10 '17/9/10 '18/9/10 '19/9/10 '20/9/10
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/9/10 '16/9/10 '17/9/10 '18/9/10 '19/9/10 '20/9/10
5 1
35.6% -0.2%
28.2% 0.0%
5 1
35.4% -0.3%
30.6% 0.1%
5 1
35.5% -0.2%
29.4% 0.1%
5 1
32.5% -0.5%
25.3% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109251
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898