柏瑞週報 20181214

1. 14 December
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.8 2.91%
0.05%
•
10
0.45%
•
0.89%
0.24%
0.26%
0.58%
Bloomberg 2018/12/13
商品 資金流向
0.39
0.88
1.49
1.26
-0.48
1.02
0.11
2.11
1.01
0.56
-2.54
-0.65
-0.64
1.01
1.06
-0.62
-0.07
-0.05
0.13
0.16
0.17
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.29
0.36
0.45
0.46
0.58
0.89
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
Trump
•
Trump
S&P 500 1.68%
• May
600 1.78%
225 1.46%
•
1.11%
• 10
0.51% 6.16%
Bloomberg 2018/12/13
商品 資金流向
-2.63
3.44
-2.06
2.66
2.83
0.60
-1.92
2.02
0.75
2.13
-4.77
-0.78
0.03
2.23
-4.12
0.85
-1.68
-1.14
-0.65
-0.42
-0.18
-0.09
0.51
0.67
0.73
0.85
1.05
1.11
1.46
1.75
1.78
1.80
500
BOVESPA
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
H
MSCI
DAX
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
600
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
(OPEC+)
• (EIA)
12 7 121 ( )
2
Bloomberg EIA 2018/12/13
商品 資金流向
3.09
3.27
-0.18
-4.36
3.31
4.84
4.68
-0.82
1.35
-5.58
-6.14
5.56
-1.04
-0.27
-0.21
0.00
0.34
0.39
0.42
0.95
1.40
2.12
2.31
3.98
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 12 12 390
277 23
2 9
45
• 131 84
32 9
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/12/13
商品 資金流向

8. PAGE 7
• Trump Trump
Charls Schumer Nancy Pelosi
Trump
Trump
12 21
•
11 0.2%
2.2%
10
• 10 10
708 100
•
1000
16
2019 2 6
Bloomberg 2018/12/13
( 1)
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
• 2019
287 1653
2009
1800 2000 2018
1800
1900
• Lipper
8.3 12
7 38
• 10
12/13 430
10 87
2015
Bloomberg 2018/12/13

10. PAGE 9
•
May
May
May 200
May
•
2019
GDP 2.0-2.2%
Conte
• 12/13
2.6
Draghi
• 2.5% GDP
2.5%
Bloomberg 2018/12/13

11. PAGE 10
•
113
Trump 12
•
2025
• Urjit Patel
Shaktikanta Das
Das
•
6.5%
Bloomberg 2018/12/13
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2018/12/13

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 140.0 (12/13) 5 : 125.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.30 (12/13)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.16 (12/13)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 324.79 (12/13) 5 : 319.8

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.24 (12/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 481.4 (12/13) 5 : 452.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.27 (12/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 430.0 (12/13) 5 : 436.6
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.17 (12/13)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 495.0 (12/13) 5 : 363.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.75 (12/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 591.7 (12/13) 5 : 504.8

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.80 (12/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 386.87 (12/13) 5 : 338.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.34 (12/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 348.68 (12/13) 5 : 331.7

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.47 (12/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 562.0 (12/13) 5 : 571.9
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.67 (12/13)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 283.50 (12/13) 5 : 255.2

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.0 (12/13) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.2 (12/13) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.5 (12/13) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 15.7 (12/13) 5 : 17.6

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (12/13) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (12/13) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.6 (12/13) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.3 (12/13) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.65 (12/13) 5 : 14.76
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 55.7 (12/13) 5 : 65.3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.1 (12/13) 5 : 72.1
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 405.5 (12/13) 5 : 363.3

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/12/13 '14/12/13 '15/12/13 '16/12/13 '17/12/13 '18/12/13
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/12/13 '14/12/13 '15/12/13 '16/12/13 '17/12/13 '18/12/13
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'13/12/13 '14/12/13 '15/12/13 '16/12/13 '17/12/13 '18/12/13
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/12/13 '14/12/13 '15/12/13 '16/12/13 '17/12/13 '18/12/13
2018/12/13
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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