柏瑞週報 20200430

1. 30 April
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
0.6269%
10 -0.495%
•
0.05%
758 0.37%
909
• 0.78%
1.42%
1.84%
Bloomberg 2020/4/29
0.75
5.65
3.50
1.58
1.02
4.72
4.44
6.92
3.71
3.05
5.41
2.78
1.46
6.77
2.51
0.35
-0.09
0.05
0.11
0.15
0.16
0.31
0.37
0.40
0.42
0.49
0.63
0.72
0.78
1.10
1.42
1.51
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
(Remdesivir)
•
S&P 500
5.01%
600 5.13%
DAX 6.65%
• 225
3.31% 5
300 0.72% RTS
7.38%
•
1.87%
Bloomberg 2020/4/29
4.23
7.51
8.73
13.27
1.97
9.15
5.64
9.74
11.07
12.83
15.66
11.63
8.46
15.31
15.15
19.81
0.72
1.87
2.74
3.08
3.31
3.49
3.83
4.27
4.51
5.00
5.01
5.13
5.48
6.65
6.68
7.38
300
BAML
MSCI
BOVESPA
Nikkei 225
MSCI
H
SENSEX
MSCI
S&P 500
600
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
RTS
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
60 378
• 4 24
900 ( )
1,060
Bloomberg 2020/4/29
-9.06
-11.99
-2.56
-5.64
5.24
-9.70
8.45
9.82
3.65
13.03
-29.99
-9.59
-4.33
-4.09
-0.59
-0.36
-0.04
0.68
2.50
2.52
2.69
3.09
9.29
10.65
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

7. PAGE 6
GDP
• GDP 1 GDP
4.8%( 1)
2 GDP
•
0%~0.25% ( 2)
(MBS)
• (Gilead)
(Remdesivir)
Trump 4/30
Bloomberg 2020/4/29
( 1) GDP (%)
( 2) (%)

8. PAGE 7
•
0.05%( 1)
•
4 340
Delta Airlines
3
Avis Budget Group
• 4 S&P 500
6
Boeing Ford HSBC Starbucks Caterpillar
Alphabet
AMD Tesla 3M Pfizer NXP
• 4
3 118.8 86.9( 2)
2016
Bloomberg 2020/4/29
( 1)
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/4/29
( 1) (%)
( 2) ( )
•
• 4
0.8%( 1) 1.3% 3
• 26
260 3/14
Conte
5/4
• -0.1%
80
20 3

10. PAGE 9
( 1) (%)
( 2) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/4/29
• 3
5
5 21
5 22
• 3 3
34.9%( 1)
•
5,000
• 2
50 5.5% 6 ( 2)
GDP 4%~6%

12. PAGE 11
Bloomberg 2020/4/30
/ /
5/4 3 -8.5% 0.0%
5/4 5 Sentix - -42.9
5/4 4 Markit PMI - 51.8
5/4 4 Markit PMI - 48.4
5/5 4 ISM 39.6 52.5
5/5 3 ( ) - -0.4%
5/5 RBA 0.25% 0.25%
5/6 4 ADP -14,625k -27k
5/6 3 ( ) - 3.0%
5/6 Selic 3.25% 3.75%
5/7 4 ( ) -8.9% -6.6%
5/7 4 ( ) -10.7% -0.9%
5/7 4 PMI 49.7 43.0
5/7 0.100% 0.100%
5/8 4 -18,876k -701k
5/8 4 15.1% 4.4%
5/8 3 ( ) 0.0% 1.0%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.68 (4/29)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 204.0 (4/29) 5 : 129.6
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.16 (4/29)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 464.07 (4/29) 5 : 355.2
/ /

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 9.50 (4/29)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 909.1 (4/29) 5 : 471.4
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.18 (4/29)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 758.0 (4/29) 5 : 444.9

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.73 (4/29)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 654.0 (4/29) 5 : 386.1
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 9.28 (4/29)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 877.6 (4/29) 5 : 525.9

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.96 (4/29)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 628.79 (4/29) 5 : 353.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.11 (4/29)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 555.32 (4/29) 5 : 341.6

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 13.62 (4/29)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1311.0 (4/29) 5 : 572.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.64 (4/29)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 413.04 (4/29) 5 : 261.3

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.6 (4/29) 5 : 15.8
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.5 (4/29) 5 : 16.9
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.6 (4/29) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 16.0 (4/29) 5 : 16.2
/ /

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.9 (4/29) 5 : 11.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.4 (4/29) 5 : 12.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 16.8 (4/29) 5 : 17.2
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.5 (4/29) 5 : 11.9

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ /
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 31.23 (4/29) 5 : 16.30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 57.2 (4/29) 5 : 65.1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 53.4 (4/29) 5 : 65.9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 627.6 (4/29) 5 : 374.8

21. PAGE 20
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/4/29 '16/4/29 '17/4/29 '18/4/29 '19/4/29 '20/4/29
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/4/29 '16/4/29 '17/4/29 '18/4/29 '19/4/29 '20/4/29
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/4/29 '16/4/29 '17/4/29 '18/4/29 '19/4/29 '20/4/29
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/4/29 '16/4/29 '17/4/29 '18/4/29 '19/4/29 '20/4/29
5 1
28.1% 1.9%
28.5% 0.1%
5 1
15.8% 0.3%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
22.0% 1.1%
29.7% 0.1%
5 1
11.3% 0.6%
25.9% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

22. PAGE 21
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•
•
•
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