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4 January
2018
PAGE 2
•
10 2.6%
2.5535%
•
0.67% 0.43%
10.26 557.15
• 0.50%
0.35% 0.34%
1.10%
Bloomberg 2019/1/3
-1.29
0.80
0.90
0.04
1.42
0.82
1.41
-1.22
1.59
1.16
-2.41
2.34
1.22
2.85
0.96
-0.46
-0.08
0.16
0.27
0.34
0.35
0.40
0.43
0.45
0.50
0.67
0.97
0.98
1.08
1.10
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
S&P 500
1.64% NASDAQ 1.76%
600 1.32%
• 225 2018
0.31%
• 12
0.75%
• Bolsonaro
BOVESPA 7.14%
• 17 6.16%
2.42%
Bloomberg 2019/1/3
-8.31
-12.27
-9.62
-6.37
-2.01
-7.17
-9.90
-11.34
-6.62
-9.15
-5.46
-7.55
-0.02
-5.84
1.94
1.98
-1.87
-1.64
-1.56
-1.55
-0.82
-0.75
-0.47
-0.31
-0.29
0.34
1.28
1.32
2.42
2.86
7.14
7.62
MSCI
500
H
SENSEX
MSCI
Nikkei 225
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
600
RTS
BOVESPA
MSCI
% %
PAGE 4
• OPEC
(OPEC)12
OPEC 1
•
( )
2019
59.97
Bloomberg EIA 2019/1/3 2018/12/21
-7.90
-8.88
-11.41
-7.04
-6.51
-1.44
-3.33
-0.59
5.17
0.77
-11.07
-9.30
-4.65
-4.18
-1.71
-0.89
0.63
0.64
1.02
1.40
1.46
5.03
5.56
7.27
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 1 2 211
145 2
6 12
20
• 78 80
18 13 12
4
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/1/3
PAGE 7
• Cook
iPhone
12 29
840 890
930 5% Cook
( )
( 1)
• 12
(PMI) 11 59.3
54.1( 2) 2016 11
57.5
• Trump
• Bristol-Myers Squibb
740 Celgene
Bloomberg 2019/1/3
( 1)
( 2) ISM (PMI)
PAGE 8
• 2018
12 1.85%
( 1)
• 2018 4
(YTW) 8%
( 2)
• Netflix Activision Blizzard
Netflix Netflix
Netflix
• Sears Sears
2018
ESL Sears
Sears
Bloomberg Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/1/3
( 2)
1.85%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2015/12 2016/12 2017/12 2018/12
12
( 1)
PAGE 9
• 12 Markit
PMI 11 51.8 51.4( 1)
50 12
Markit PMI 11 51.8 51.5
33
•
Barclay May
May
May
• 12/30
2019
2019
GDP 2.04%
• 11
1.1%( 2) 11
10 2.4% 2.5%
1.62 1.63 44
Bloomberg 2019/1/3
PAGE 10
• 12
PMI PMI 50
49.4( 1) 34
PMI 0.4
53.8
• 2019
500 1000
•
(NIOC)
11 5
• Bolsonaro
Twitter 12 4
70
Bloomberg 2019/1/3
PMI 50
( 1) PMI
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/1/3
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 157.0 (1/3) 5 : 125.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.12 (1/3)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.16 (1/3)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 360.45 (1/3) 5 : 319.9
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.67 (1/3)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 557.2 (1/3) 5 : 453.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.94 (1/3)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 537.0 (1/3) 5 : 437.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.48 (1/3)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 533.0 (1/3) 5 : 365.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.75 (1/3)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 619.7 (1/3) 5 : 506.0
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.80 (1/3)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 422.62 (1/3) 5 : 339.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.27 (1/3)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 381.16 (1/3) 5 : 332.2
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.53 (1/3)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 604.0 (1/3) 5 : 571.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.53 (1/3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 297.10 (1/3) 5 : 255.5
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.3 (1/3) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.2 (1/3) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (1/3) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 14.4 (1/3) 5 : 17.6
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.5 (1/3) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 9.2 (1/3) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.5 (1/3) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.1 (1/3) 5 : 12.7
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 25.45 (1/3) 5 : 14.90
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 65.8 (1/3) 5 : 65.2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 62.4 (1/3) 5 : 71.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 465.3 (1/3) 5 : 364.8
PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3
2019/1/3
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108003
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
101 013
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20190104

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 2.6% 2.5535% • 0.67% 0.43% 10.26 557.15 • 0.50% 0.35% 0.34% 1.10% Bloomberg 2019/1/3 -1.29 0.80 0.90 0.04 1.42 0.82 1.41 -1.22 1.59 1.16 -2.41 2.34 1.22 2.85 0.96 -0.46 -0.08 0.16 0.27 0.34 0.35 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.50 0.67 0.97 0.98 1.08 1.10 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • S&P 500 1.64% NASDAQ 1.76% 600 1.32% • 225 2018 0.31% • 12 0.75% • Bolsonaro BOVESPA 7.14% • 17 6.16% 2.42% Bloomberg 2019/1/3 -8.31 -12.27 -9.62 -6.37 -2.01 -7.17 -9.90 -11.34 -6.62 -9.15 -5.46 -7.55 -0.02 -5.84 1.94 1.98 -1.87 -1.64 -1.56 -1.55 -0.82 -0.75 -0.47 -0.31 -0.29 0.34 1.28 1.32 2.42 2.86 7.14 7.62 MSCI 500 H SENSEX MSCI Nikkei 225 MSCI DAX MSCI 600 RTS BOVESPA MSCI % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC (OPEC)12 OPEC 1 • ( ) 2019 59.97 Bloomberg EIA 2019/1/3 2018/12/21 -7.90 -8.88 -11.41 -7.04 -6.51 -1.44 -3.33 -0.59 5.17 0.77 -11.07 -9.30 -4.65 -4.18 -1.71 -0.89 0.63 0.64 1.02 1.40 1.46 5.03 5.56 7.27 LME LME LME CRB LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 1 2 211 145 2 6 12 20 • 78 80 18 13 12 4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/1/3
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • Cook iPhone 12 29 840 890 930 5% Cook ( ) ( 1) • 12 (PMI) 11 59.3 54.1( 2) 2016 11 57.5 • Trump • Bristol-Myers Squibb 740 Celgene Bloomberg 2019/1/3 ( 1) ( 2) ISM (PMI)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • 2018 12 1.85% ( 1) • 2018 4 (YTW) 8% ( 2) • Netflix Activision Blizzard Netflix Netflix Netflix • Sears Sears 2018 ESL Sears Sears Bloomberg Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/1/3 ( 2) 1.85% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2015/12 2016/12 2017/12 2018/12 12 ( 1)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 12 Markit PMI 11 51.8 51.4( 1) 50 12 Markit PMI 11 51.8 51.5 33 • Barclay May May May • 12/30 2019 2019 GDP 2.04% • 11 1.1%( 2) 11 10 2.4% 2.5% 1.62 1.63 44 Bloomberg 2019/1/3
  • 11. PAGE 10 • 12 PMI PMI 50 49.4( 1) 34 PMI 0.4 53.8 • 2019 500 1000 • (NIOC) 11 5 • Bolsonaro Twitter 12 4 70 Bloomberg 2019/1/3 PMI 50 ( 1) PMI ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 157.0 (1/3) 5 : 125.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.12 (1/3) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.16 (1/3) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 360.45 (1/3) 5 : 319.9
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.67 (1/3) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 557.2 (1/3) 5 : 453.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.94 (1/3) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 537.0 (1/3) 5 : 437.8 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.48 (1/3) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 533.0 (1/3) 5 : 365.6 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 8.75 (1/3) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 619.7 (1/3) 5 : 506.0
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.80 (1/3) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 422.62 (1/3) 5 : 339.4 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.27 (1/3) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 381.16 (1/3) 5 : 332.2
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 8.53 (1/3) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 604.0 (1/3) 5 : 571.7 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.53 (1/3) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 297.10 (1/3) 5 : 255.5
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.3 (1/3) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 14.2 (1/3) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.0 (1/3) 5 : 15.4 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 14.4 (1/3) 5 : 17.6
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 10.5 (1/3) 5 : 12.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 9.2 (1/3) 5 : 12.6 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 20.5 (1/3) 5 : 18.1 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.1 (1/3) 5 : 12.7
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 25.45 (1/3) 5 : 14.90 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 65.8 (1/3) 5 : 65.2 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 62.4 (1/3) 5 : 71.8 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 465.3 (1/3) 5 : 364.8
  • 22. PAGE 21 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% '14/1/3 '15/1/3 '16/1/3 '17/1/3 '18/1/3 '19/1/3 2019/1/3 * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108003 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 101 013 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898