柏瑞週報 20190517

1. 17 May
2019

3. PAGE 2
• Trump
Trump
10
2.3944%
10
• 0.14%
CCC
0.39% 0.14%
443
•
0.25%
0.20% 0.65%
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
0.19
-0.62
-0.33
-0.95
0.10
0.64
0.97
0.72
0.84
0.27
1.06
0.93
1.32
1.12
-1.62
-0.17
-0.14
-0.14
-0.13
-0.06
0.01
0.14
0.14
0.20
0.25
0.27
0.32
0.34
0.50
0.65
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
Trump
S&P 500
0.20%
600 1.85%
•
225
1.58%
•
300 4.01%
•
BOVESPA 5.05%
• 10
0.52% 10.42%
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
-4.57
-7.76
-4.15
-8.04
-7.54
-5.21
-4.79
-8.54
-2.40
-1.06
0.73
-4.31
-1.63
0.47
1.73
-8.37
-5.05
-3.88
-2.41
-1.82
-1.68
-1.58
-0.44
-0.31
0.09
0.20
0.52
1.64
1.85
2.29
2.81
4.01
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
H
MSCI
500
MSCI
600
RTS
DAX
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
• 5 10
543.1 ( ) 120
112.3
Bloomberg EIA 2019/5/16
-14.29
-6.08
0.77
-6.16
-2.65
-1.84
1.25
-5.43
-6.00
0.24
5.57
4.94
-4.88
-0.03
0.21
1.03
1.85
1.90
3.17
3.32
3.38
3.39
7.29
8.73
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 195 81
45 18
16
• 51 78
17 35
29
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/5/15

8. PAGE 7
• 5 10
2,000 10%
25% Trump
G20
Mnuchin
• 5 18
25%
6
• Trump
Trump
• 4 (CPI)
2.0% CPI 2.1%
Powell
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 1) S&P 500
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Transocean 4
• 4
3 0.2%( 2)
0.2%
• FCA Moody’s
Fiat Chrysler(FCA)
Ba3 Ba2
Moody‘s FCA
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 2)
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• GDP
1.2%
GDP 0% 0.4%
GDP 2 0.2%
• May
May
May
( 1)
• Matteo Salvini
GDP 3%
GDP 140%
• 3
0.9 99.6( 2) 2
6
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 1)
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
• 4
5.4%( 1)
4 7.2%
1 4 6.1%
•
6 1
600
10% 25%
•
8.25 ( 2)
4%
• Guedes
2019 2.2% 1.5%
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 1) )
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
5/20 1 GDP ( ) -0.1% 0.5%
5/21 4 5.34m 5.21m
5/21 5 -7.6 -7.9
5/22 3 ( ) 0.0% 1.8%
5/22 4 CPI( ) 2.2% 1.9%
5/23 4 677k 692k
5/23 5 Markit ( ) 53.0 52.6
5/23 5 - -
5/23 5 Markit ( ) 48.2 47.9
5/23 1 GDP ( ) 0.6% 0.6%
5/23 5 IFO 99.2 99.2
5/23 5 Markit ( ) 44.8 44.4
5/23 5 ( ) - 50.2
5/23 SARB 6.75% 6.75%
5/24 4 -2.0% 2.6%
5/24 3 ( ) -0.2% -0.2%
5/24 4 ( ) 0.9% 0.5%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 117.0 (5/16) 5 : 126.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.58 (5/16)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.55 (5/16)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 315.16 (5/16) 5 : 319.1

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.39 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 443.0 (5/16) 5 : 456.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.37 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 392.0 (5/16) 5 : 439.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.27 (5/16)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 399.0 (5/16) 5 : 373.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.54 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 525.1 (5/16) 5 : 507.7

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.04 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 357.18 (5/16) 5 : 342.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.64 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 332.66 (5/16) 5 : 333.1

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.77 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 545.0 (5/16) 5 : 563.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.91 (5/16)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 261.54 (5/16) 5 : 255.2

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.8 (5/16) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.3 (5/16) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.2 (5/16) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.0 (5/16) 5 : 17.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.2 (5/16) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.8 (5/16) 5 : 12.9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 18.2 (5/16) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.9 (5/16) 5 : 12.8

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.29 (5/16) 5 : 14.98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 57.0 (5/16) 5 : 64.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.6 (5/16) 5 : 70.0
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 348.0 (5/16) 5 : 366.5

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
5 1
34.3% 0.5%
29.4% 0.1%
5 1
20.3% -0.2%
31.5% 0.1%
5 1
27.3% 0.2%
30.5% 0.1%
5 1
18.1% 0.1%
26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108103
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898