柏瑞週報20190125

1. 25 January
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
(IMF)
10 3.47
2.7157% 10
6.3 0.180%
•
0.07%
0.55%
• 1.44%
0.65%
0.41%
0.57%
Bloomberg 2019/1/24
0.45
4.21
0.30
1.23
1.84
0.71
1.51
1.59
3.78
3.79
2.26
2.60
1.36
3.16
3.64
-0.02
0.07
0.25
0.28
0.33
0.36
0.41
0.46
0.55
0.57
0.65
0.87
0.88
0.90
1.44
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500
0.24%
•
DAX
1.94% 600 1.41%
•
225 0.84%
•
GDP
1.25% H 1.70%
•
0.50% 4.27%
Bloomberg 2019/1/24
2.04
12.39
9.63
5.44
5.35
2.03
2.46
6.99
2.56
6.09
14.64
6.24
4.67
13.98
11.03
9.58
-0.49
0.24
0.46
0.50
0.84
0.84
0.90
1.04
1.25
1.41
1.47
1.70
1.94
2.44
2.69
2.73
SENSEX
500
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
MSCI
600
MSCI
H
DAX
BOVESPA
RTS
MSCI
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
• 1 18
797 ( )
Bloomberg EIA 2019/1/24
0.81
-0.56
0.95
-0.20
6.46
21.04
0.97
3.62
8.08
-0.13
24.92
6.71
-1.65
-1.17
-0.84
-0.79
-0.29
-0.15
0.72
0.91
1.55
1.75
2.04
3.65
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 1 23 5
22 25
14 31 15
• 52 7
1200
31 12
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/1/24

8. PAGE 7
• Trump
Ross
Kudlow
• PMI 1 Markit
(PMI) 12 53.8 54.9 PMI
12 54.4 54.2( 1)
• 12
499 2015 11
6.4 ( 2)
•
Trump
Bloomberg 2019/1/24
( 1) Markit (PMI)
( 2)
(50 )

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 12
5
• S&P 500
19% 75% ( 2)
60% 4
S&P 500 14.2%
• PG&E
2017
PG&E( )
PG&E
2017 2018 2
PG&E
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/1/24
( 2) ( )
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
•
QE
Draghi
• May
May
May
•
0.1%
2019 CPI 1.4% 0.9%
• 12
3.8% 1.9%
Bloomberg 2019/1/24
( 1)
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
• 2018 GDP 28 2018 GDP
6.6% 2017 6.8%
28 GDP 6.4%
10
•
• TMLF
1/23 2019
(TMLF) 2,575
3.15%
(MLF) 15
•
Juan Guaido
Trump
Nicolas Maduro
Maduro
Bloomberg 2019/1/24
( 1) GDP
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/1/24
1/28 12 M3 3.8% 3.7%
1/30 4 GDP 2.5% 3.4%
1/30 1 ADP 170k 271k
1/30 1 CPI 1.7% 1.7%
1/30 12 0.8% 1.4%
1/31 FOMC 2.50% 2.50%
1/31 12 0.5% 0.2%
1/31 4 GDP 1.2% 1.6%
1/31 12 7.9% 7.9%
1/31 12 -0.5% -1.0%
1/31 1 PMI 49.3 49.4
2/1 1 163k 312k
2/1 1 ISM 54.3 54.1
2/1 1 - 90.7
2/1 1 3.8% 3.9%
2/1 1 CPI 1.0% 1.0%
2/1 12 2.5% 2.5%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 134.0 (1/24) 5 : 125.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.05 (1/24)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.94 (1/24)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 322.13 (1/24) 5 : 319.8

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.94 (1/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 468.5 (1/24) 5 : 454.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.17 (1/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 440.0 (1/24) 5 : 438.6
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.05 (1/24)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 480.0 (1/24) 5 : 367.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.28 (1/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 563.2 (1/24) 5 : 507.1

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.38 (1/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 362.33 (1/24) 5 : 340.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.00 (1/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 336.08 (1/24) 5 : 332.5

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.75 (1/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 511.0 (1/24) 5 : 570.9
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.40 (1/24)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 275.02 (1/24) 5 : 255.6

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.5 (1/24) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.7 (1/24) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.0 (1/24) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 14.9 (1/24) 5 : 17.5

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.6 (1/24) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 9.9 (1/24) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 21.2 (1/24) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.2 (1/24) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 18.89 (1/24) 5 : 14.97
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 54.2 (1/24) 5 : 65.2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.4 (1/24) 5 : 71.5
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 384.0 (1/24) 5 : 365.7

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/24 '15/1/24 '16/1/24 '17/1/24 '18/1/24 '19/1/24
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/1/24 '15/1/24 '16/1/24 '17/1/24 '18/1/24 '19/1/24
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/24 '15/1/24 '16/1/24 '17/1/24 '18/1/24 '19/1/24
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/1/24 '15/1/24 '16/1/24 '17/1/24 '18/1/24 '19/1/24
5 1
35.7% 0.5%
29.6% 0.0%
5 1
19.6% 0.2%
31.7% 0.1%
5 1
27.6% 0.4%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
22.7% 1.0%
26.7% 0.1%
2019/1/24
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108020
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•
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•
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