柏瑞週報 20200904

1. 4 September
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10 11
0.6347% 10
-0.4880%
•
0.30% 480
0.67% 533
• 1.49%
IMF 65
20.74% 0.55%
0.31%
1.42%
6.22%
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
0.29
0.91
0.74
0.86
1.93
1.33
0.64
2.33
1.97
1.82
-0.34
-0.20
0.13
0.52
-0.33
1.80
0.22
0.30
0.31
0.47
0.52
0.55
0.58
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.91
0.93
1.05
1.42
1.43
1.49
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 0.85%
NASDAQ 1.44%
600 1.25%
•
225 1.11%
300 1.81%
•
0.17%
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
-3.53
-2.72
-0.93
0.67
3.65
4.87
2.87
4.19
5.55
1.96
3.25
1.39
-2.05
5.72
0.96
-1.14
-3.59
-3.29
-2.57
-1.25
-0.86
-0.85
-0.75
-0.70
-0.31
-0.31
-0.29
-0.17
0.10
1.11
1.81
3.33
MSCI
RTS
H
600
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
DAX
BAML
BOVESPA
Nikkei 225
300
MSCI
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
• 8 28 EIA
936.2 ( )
200
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
0.88
-0.18
0.05
2.49
1.13
8.25
1.60
-2.33
8.18
6.19
11.42
8.17
-3.88
-2.26
-1.85
-1.49
-0.87
-0.63
-0.06
0.07
1.15
1.98
2.76
3.07
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 15 39
3 5
13
• 220
166 11
32
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/9/2
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
Fed
• Fed
8
• 8 ISM PMI 56( 2)
4
1
8
PMI 56.9 3
• 8/31
Salesforce.com
(Amgen) (Honeywell)
(Exxon Mobil) (Pfizer)
(Raytheon Technologies) (Apple)
•
11
23
( 2) ISM
( 1) S&P 500
Bloomberg 2020/9/3

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
( 1)
( 2) ( )
•
0.30%( 1)
•
8
528 6 580
9
350 400 250
350
• 8 ADP
42.8 21.2
90
• 7
1.9%( 2)
6.2%
600 7
8

10. PAGE 9
• 8
-0.2%( 1) 0.2% 2016 5
CPI
0.4%
• 7 6
7.7% 7.9% 8.0%
•
1,000 GDP
4%
16
2022 2019
•
(LDP)
( 1) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
( 2) (%)

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
• 8 PMI
53.1( 1) 2011 2
9
3
8 PMI 54 4
6
• 8 Markit PMI 7
46 52 4
48.2
• 8 PMI 48.5
50
3
2 GDP
3.3% 3.2%
2008 4
• 8 Markit PMI 7
58.2 64.7 3
12
( 1) PMI
( 2) PMI

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/9/4
/ /
9/7 9 Sentix -11.1 -13.4
9/7 7 ( ) 4.9% 8.9%
9/7 8 ( ) 7.6% 7.2%
9/7 8 ( ) 0.4% -1.4%
9/8 8 NFIB 98.8 98.8
9/8 2 GDP( ) -28.5% -27.8%
9/9 8 CPI( ) 2.4% 2.7%
9/9 8 PPI( ) -1.9% -2.4%
9/9 0.25% 0.25%
9/10 7 ( ) -0.4% -0.1%
9/10 8 PPI( ) 0.2% 0.6%
9/10 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
9/10 7 ( ) 2.8% -7.6%
9/10-9/15 8 1,295.5b 992.7b
9/10 7 ( ) - 0.5%
9/11 8 CPI( ) 0.3% 0.6%
9/11 7 ( ) -12.0% -16.6%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 1.93 (9/3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 128 (9/3) 5 : 130
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.56 (9/3)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 410 (9/3) 5 : 358

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.97 (9/3)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.84 (9/3)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 533 (9/3) 5 : 482
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 480 (9/3) 5 : 452

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.13 (9/3)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.01 (9/3)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 441 (9/3) 5 : 397
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 653 (9/3) 5 : 496

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.89 (9/3)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.35 (9/3)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 423 (9/3) 5 : 369
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 350 (9/3) 5 : 321

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.25 (9/3)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.70 (9/3)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 673 (9/3) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 251 (9/3) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.8 (9/3) 5 : 16.1
8
13
18
23
28
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.5 (9/3) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.7 (9/3) 5 : 14.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.6 (9/3) 5 : 16.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.0 (9/3) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.5 (9/3) 5 : 12.1
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.5 (9/3) 5 : 17.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.6 (9/3) 5 : 12.3
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 33.60 (9/3) 5 : 17.17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 45.8 (9/3) 5 : 62.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.4 (9/3) 5 : 64.6
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 364 (9/3) 5 : 384
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
5 1
35.9% -0.2%
28.2% 0.3%
5 1
36.5% 0.6%
30.6% 0.1%
5 1
36.2% 0.2%
29.4% 0.2%
5 1
33.4% 1.3%
25.3% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109244
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
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•
•
•
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