柏瑞週報 20191122

1. 22 November
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.7723%
10
-0.325%
•
0.25% 0.19%
482.8
•
0.46%
22.35% 0.17%
0.31%
0.50%
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
-0.56
-0.18
-0.20
0.08
-0.47
0.78
1.12
0.61
0.25
0.65
0.27
0.53
0.46
0.64
-0.51
-0.46
-0.25
-0.19
-0.15
-0.10
0.08
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.28
0.31
0.38
0.40
0.50
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
• S&P 500
S&P 500
0.22%
•
600 0.54%
• 225
0.44%
300 0.42%
•
0.04%
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
2.03
2.17
0.23
3.06
-0.06
1.84
-0.88
3.22
1.56
2.62
4.40
-1.49
3.25
1.39
3.35
6.56
-0.54
-0.44
-0.42
-0.32
-0.04
0.02
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.50
0.69
0.72
0.88
0.94
1.24
600
Nikkei 225
300
DAX
BAML
MSCI
H
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
BOVESPA
RTS
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
(OPEC)
• 11 15
138 ( ) 150
Bloomberg EIA 2019/11/21
-10.03
-7.28
-4.21
-4.84
-3.46
-1.36
0.29
-2.77
0.02
3.43
8.50
9.89
-4.39
-4.30
-3.78
-1.93
-1.72
-0.48
-0.40
0.25
0.29
0.36
2.71
3.19
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 15 41
8 8
26
• 70
55 3
2
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/11/20
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
•
Trump 10
•
• 10 9
0.3%( 2) -0.3%
(Fed)12
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 1) S&P 500
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
161 2017 3
Teva
Pharmaceutical Kaiser Aluminum
2 3
• Paypal 40
Honey Science Paypal
(Charles Schwab) 250
TD Ameritrade 5
• 11
16 22.7
6
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 1)
( 2)

10. PAGE 9
• 2020
1,536
• ECB
10
(CPI) 0.7%( 1)
•
38.5% 9%
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 2) 225
( 1) CPI ( )

11. PAGE 10
• 1,800
7 5 2.5%
(LPR) 1 5
5
•
2011
IPO 1,012
176
40
•
(Gotabaya)
Gotabaya
(Hambantota)
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 1) (LPR)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/11/22
/ /
11/22 GDP ( ) 0.10% 0.10%
11/22 Markit 50.9 50.7
11/22 Markit 46.4 45.9
11/22 Markit PMI ( ) 48.9 49.6
11/22 IBGE IPCA-15( ) 0.16% 0.09%
11/22 95.7 95.7
11/25 IFO 95 94.6
11/25 GDP ( ) -- -0.40%
11/26 707k 701k
11/26 126.8 125.9
11/27 99.9 99.6
11/27 MBA -- -2.20%
11/27 GDP ( ) 1.90% 1.90%
11/27 -0.50% -1.20%
11/27 -- 227k
11/28 CPI( ) 1.30% 1.10%
11/28 ( ) -4.00% 9.10%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.91 (11/21)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 109.0 (11/21) 5 : 127.6
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.11 (11/21)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 335.55 (11/21) 5 : 357.2

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.28 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 482.8 (11/21) 5 : 461.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.83 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 396.0 (11/21) 5 : 440.3

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.87 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 374.0 (11/21) 5 : 377.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.27 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 558.8 (11/21) 5 : 516.0

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.25 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 336.67 (11/21) 5 : 348.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.07 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 334.11 (11/21) 5 : 337.8

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.40 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 666.0 (11/21) 5 : 565.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.36 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 266.98 (11/21) 5 : 257.6

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.8 (11/21) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.0 (11/21) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.9 (11/21) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 17.4 (11/21) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.8 (11/21) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.9 (11/21) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 20.4 (11/21) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (11/21) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.13 (11/21) 5 : 15.17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 61.8 (11/21) 5 : 65.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.1 (11/21) 5 : 67.5
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 344.5 (11/21) 5 : 367.8

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
5 1
35.6% 0.0%
29.0% 0.0%
5 1
27.1% -0.1%
31.2% 0.1%
5 1
31.4% -0.1%
30.1% 0.1%
5 1
22.7% -0.1%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108238
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•
•
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•
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