受到美國經濟數據疲弱以及總統彈劾案不確定性增加的影響，市場擔憂景氣前景，使得避險情緒增加，美國公債殖利率下跌，全球股市也跌多漲少。

1. 05 October
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.5290%
10
-0.586%
•
0.49%
0.23% 501.6
• 0.36%
1.42%
0.64% 0.41%
1.21%
2.65%
Bloomberg 2019/10/4
-0.43
-0.13
0.01
0.05
0.84
1.89
-0.88
0.78
-0.00
0.29
0.13
-0.02
-0.30
-0.13
1.22
-0.57
-0.49
-0.23
0.03
0.27
0.34
0.36
0.41
0.45
0.64
0.75
0.88
0.89
1.07
1.21
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
• PMI
S&P
500 0.33%
600
2.95% DAX 2.97% 225
2.14%
•
BOVESPA 2.40%
Sensex
2.96% 10 1 7
•
0.05%
Bloomberg 2019/10/4
-0.10
2.58
-0.77
-0.56
-1.44
1.33
3.69
-1.84
0.24
0.60
0.48
0.79
-1.37
0.37
3.11
2.23
-2.97
-2.96
-2.95
-2.74
-2.68
-2.40
-2.14
-0.99
-0.94
-0.49
-0.33
-0.30
-0.01
0.05
0.21
0.60
DAX
SENSEX
600
MSCI
RTS
BOVESPA
Nikkei 225
300
MSCI
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
H
BAML
MSCI
% %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/10/4
-3.84
-6.13
-1.83
0.46
-3.15
-0.43
-3.07
6.46
4.93
-1.17
7.32
4.65
-5.72
-5.54
-2.15
-1.26
-0.92
-0.15
0.51
0.67
3.09
3.40
3.57
3.77
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %
•
• 9 27
310 ( ) 130
20 30.8

6. PAGE 5
• 66 67
24 5
12
• 101
100 37
2 13
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/10/2
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
Bloomberg 2019/10/4
• (ISM)
9 PMI 47.8( 1) 2
50
10
10
6
• (ISM) 9
52.6( 2) 2016
• (WTO)10 2
10 18 10%
25%
WTO
( 1) ISM PMI
( 2) ISM

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
9 10
NFP Corp. Ryman
Hospitality
• 9
13.6 ( 2) 9
3.5% 50
•
(Trump)
Bloomberg 2019/10/4
( 1)
( 2)

10. PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2019/10/4
( 2) CPI
( 1) Markit PMI• Markit 9
PMI 10
41.7( 1)
Ifo
0.5% 2020 1.1%
• CPI 9 CPI
0.9%( 2) 2%
Draghi
• Johnson 4
2020
2025
Foster
• 10 1
8% 10%
8%

11. PAGE 10
• 9
PMI ( 1)
PMI 49.5 49.8 5
5
PMI 51.4 50.2
50.4
• 9 4
1,822 4
1,652
2020
• 25
5.15%( 2)
5
2019-20 6.9% 6.1%
•
760 2
10 10 10
Bloomberg 2019/10/4
( 1) PMI
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/10/5
/ /
10/7 10 Sentix -13.0 -11.1
10/7 8 ( ) -0.3% -2.7%
10/7 8 91.7 93.7
10/8 8 ( ) -0.1% -0.6%
10/8 9 PMI 52.0 52.1
10/8 8 ¥2100.0b ¥1999.9b
10/8 8 ( ) -0.2% -0.3%
10/9 8 ( ) 0.4% 0.4%
10/9-10/15 9 ( ) 1,800.0b 1,980.0b
10/9-10/15 9 M2 ( ) 8.3% 8.2%
10/10 9 CPI( ) 1.8% 1.7%
10/10 8 ( ) 0.0% -6.6%
10/10 9 PPI( ) -1.1% -0.9%
10/10 8 ( ) 1.8% 4.3%
10/11 10 92.0 93.2
10/11 9 CPI( ) 1.2% 1.2%
10/11 8 ( ) 1.8% 4.3%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.78 (10/4)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 120.0 (10/4) 5 : 127.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.13 (10/4)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 360.56 (10/4) 5 : 359.6

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.30 (10/4)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 501.6 (10/4) 5 : 461.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.90 (10/4)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 419.0 (10/4) 5 : 441.6

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.94 (10/4)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 404.0 (10/4) 5 : 377.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.41 (10/4)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 596.6 (10/4) 5 : 514.7

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.12 (10/4)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 349.75 (10/4) 5 : 348.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.05 (10/4)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 359.83 (10/4) 5 : 337.3

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.22 (10/4)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 672.0 (10/4) 5 : 565.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.27 (10/4)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 281.10 (10/4) 5 : 257.2

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.7 (10/4) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 16.9 (10/4) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.0 (10/4) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 15.5 (10/4) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.1 (10/4) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (9/30) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.6 (10/4) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.1 (10/4) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.04 (10/4) 5 : 15.24
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 83.2 (10/4) 5 : 65.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.8 (10/4) 5 : 68.1
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 356.7 (10/4) 5 : 368.2

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/10/4 '15/10/4 '16/10/4 '17/10/4 '18/10/4 '19/10/4
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/4 '15/10/4 '16/10/4 '17/10/4 '18/10/4 '19/10/4
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/4 '15/10/4 '16/10/4 '17/10/4 '18/10/4 '19/10/4
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/10/4 '15/10/4 '16/10/4 '17/10/4 '18/10/4 '19/10/4
5 1
37.9% 0.0%
29.0% 0.1%
5 1
25.4% -0.3%
31.3% 0.1%
5 1
31.7% -0.1%
30.1% 0.1%
5 1
25.0% 0.5%
26.3% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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