柏瑞週報 20200724

1. 24 July
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
0.5774%
10 -0.481%
•
1.65% 504
1.83% 573
•
1.75%
0.93% 0.85%
1.48%
Bloomberg 2020/7/23
1.22
1.03
1.55
1.65
1.87
2.47
1.66
1.77
1.61
3.28
1.64
1.69
1.45
2.14
3.02
2.50
0.25
0.46
0.55
0.76
0.83
0.84
0.85
0.93
0.98
1.05
1.08
1.15
1.48
1.65
1.75
1.83
-
ESG ( )
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 0.62%
• 7,500
600 0.41%
•
225
300
4.34%
•
1.48%
Bloomberg 2020/7/23
0.90
1.70
3.33
3.59
2.71
6.58
4.63
3.32
6.90
-2.29
6.21
7.24
-1.53
14.33
4.47
7.65
-0.08
0.41
0.62
1.11
1.48
1.73
1.77
1.89
2.10
2.73
3.02
3.11
3.42
4.34
4.37
4.58
Nikkei 225
600
S&P 500
MSCI
BAML
BOVESPA
DAX
H
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
300
MSCI
SENSEX
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
• 7 22
489.2 ( )
220
Bloomberg 2020/7/23
-2.16
8.95
0.92
1.60
9.78
1.73
3.57
3.14
10.83
7.61
6.65
6.73
-1.91
-1.07
-0.68
-0.14
0.63
0.79
1.43
1.51
1.68
1.71
1.83
5.02
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 38 32
3 5
29
• 245
145 50
12
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/22
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• Houston
11
Trump
• Mnuchin
Trump 1
7
600 2,500
7
• Joe Biden
7,750 10
40
300
4,500
Biden 55%
15% Biden
Bloomberg 2020/7/23
( 2)
( 1) S&P 500

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
34
Wyndham Destination Powder Corp
28 12
•
24% S&P 500
7
Microsoft IBM Snap
Travelers Tesla
S&P 500
Coca-Cola Intel
American Airlines United Airlines Southwest
Airlines 8
• 7 18
142 ( 2)
18
Bloomberg 2020/7/23
( 1)
( 2) ( )

10. PAGE 9
•
7,500
3,900 3,600
• 8
-0.3
•
5G
• 7
PMI 42.6
PMI 45.2
6
( 1)
( 2) Markit PMI
Bloomberg 2020/7/23

11. PAGE 10
( 1) LPR (%)
( 2) GDP (%)
Bloomberg 2020/7/23
• (MLF)
3 7 LPR
3.85%
4.65%( 1) 3
LPR
• 7
(SMEI) 6 53.3 7
53.9
6-7
•
2 GDP
3.3%
2.9%( 2)
2 GDP 2003
• 25
3.50%
2.75%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/7/24
/ /
7/27 6 ( ) 7.5% 15.7%
7/27 6 M3 ( ) - 8.9%
7/27 5 ( ) -3.5% -6.4%
7/28 7 94.8 98.1
7/30 FOMC ( ) 0.25% 0.25%
7/30 2 GDP( ) -34.0% -5.0%
7/30 7 ( ) - -15.0
7/30 6 7.6% 7.4%
7/30 6 ( ) -5.5% -12.3%
7/31 7 ( ) 72.6 73.2
7/31 6 -0.8% -4.2%
7/31 6 5.6% 8.2%
7/31 2 GDP( ) -13.8% -3.1%
7/31 7 CPI( ) 0.2% 0.3%
7/31 6 ( ) -19.1% -26.3%
7/31 7 PMI 50.9 50.9
7/31 7 PMI 54.3 54.4

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.94 (7/23)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 130 (7/23) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.76 (7/23)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 430 (7/23) 5 : 358

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.42 (7/23)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.19 (7/23)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 573 (7/23) 5 : 481
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 504 (7/23) 5 : 453

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.53 (7/23)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.60 (7/23)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 484 (7/23) 5 : 395
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 735 (7/23) 5 : 492

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.14 (7/23)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.67 (7/23)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 457 (7/23) 5 : 368
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 396 (7/23) 5 : 321

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.88 (7/23)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.85 (7/23)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 739 (7/23) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 284 (7/23) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.7 (7/23) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.1 (7/23) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.6 (7/23) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.4 (7/22) 5 : 16.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.1 (7/23) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.3 (7/23) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.3 (7/23) 5 : 17.4
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.0 (7/23) 5 : 12.1
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 26.08 (7/23) 5 : 17.05
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 43.9 (7/23) 5 : 63.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.7 (7/23) 5 : 65.0
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 461 (7/23) 5 : 384
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/7/23 '16/7/23 '17/7/23 '18/7/23 '19/7/23 '20/7/23
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/23 '16/7/23 '17/7/23 '18/7/23 '19/7/23 '20/7/23
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/23 '16/7/23 '17/7/23 '18/7/23 '19/7/23 '20/7/23
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/7/23 '16/7/23 '17/7/23 '18/7/23 '19/7/23 '20/7/23
5 1
33.2% 1.5%
28.3% 0.0%
5 1
31.0% 1.7%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
32.1% 1.6%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
30.0% 1.9%
25.5% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109200
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898