柏瑞週報 20200821

1. 21 August
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
7 0.6509%
10 -0.4960%
•
0.18% 502
0.25% 562
• 0.70%
2.87%
0.12%
0.54%
4.85%
Bloomberg 2020/8/20
2.29
0.44
2.79
2.04
1.44
1.75
2.31
-0.16
1.58
2.00
1.78
2.83
0.44
0.98
-0.11
0.20
-0.70
-0.54
-0.25
-0.23
-0.18
-0.12
-0.09
-0.08
-0.06
-0.05
-0.02
0.09
0.11
0.15
0.38
0.56
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P
500 0.36%
•
600
1.85% 2
225 1.59%
• MLF
300 0.94%
•
0.70%
Bloomberg 2020/8/20
2.99
1.43
1.55
-3.56
-2.63
0.72
1.51
2.24
-1.66
-1.36
2.14
3.07
4.11
3.21
-0.02
-2.83
-4.02
-3.83
-3.14
-2.71
-1.85
-1.59
-1.43
-1.30
-1.26
-0.87
-0.24
-0.21
0.36
0.70
0.94
1.00
RTS
MSCI
MSCI
600
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
DAX
H
SENSEX
MSCI
S&P 500
BAML
300
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC+
0.13%
4
0.80%
• 8 14 EIA
160 ( )
285
Bloomberg 2020/8/20
7.12
-1.14
3.74
0.00
4.34
7.20
7.51
1.48
10.66
-0.48
13.11
1.76
-0.33
-0.23
-0.13
0.75
0.80
1.26
1.47
2.39
3.87
4.58
4.80
5.52
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 35 78
2 13
13
• 145
100 3,100
9
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/8/19
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• (Fed)7
Fed
•
• 7 1.2%
( 2) 3
7 22.6%
4
•
(Joe Biden) 2020
CNN 50%
46% 4
4
( 2)
( 1) S&P 500
Bloomberg 2020/8/20

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/8/20
( 1)
( 2)
•
0.18% 502 ( 1)
•
8
500 6 580
Wynn Macau ON
Semiconductor Southwestern Energy Hannon
Armstrong
• S&P 500
95% 2 85%
65% 4 71%
64% Walmart
Home Depot DIY
• 8 15
110.6 ( 2)
100

10. PAGE 9
•
(PEPP)
PEPP
• 7
(CPI) 1.0%( 1) 0.6%
7
10 12
•
2 GDP 7.8%( 2)
27.8%
3 GDP
8.2% 18.5% 1.5%
( 1) (%)
( 2) GDP( %)
Bloomberg 2020/8/20

11. PAGE 10
LPR
( 1) LPR (%)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/8/20
• LPR 8 1
(LPR) 3.85%( 1) 5 LPR
4.65% 4
7,000 MLF
1,500
• 7
1.1%
0.1% 7
7
4.8%
• 7
2016 4.00% 2
3.25% 4.75%
•
8.25% ( 2)
11.5%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/8/21
/ /
8/25 8 92.4 92.6
8/25 7 774k 776k
8/25 2 GDP ( ) -10.1% -10.1%
8/25 8 IFO 98.0 97.0
8/26 7 ( ) 3.5% 7.6%
8/26 7 CPI( ) 2.9% 2.2%
8/27 7 M3 ( ) - 9.2%
8/27 6 ( ) 5.9% -3.5%
8/27 7 ( ) - -31.1%
8/27 7 ( ) - 11.5%
8/27 7 0.50% 0.50%
8/27-8/28 8 - 38.18
8/28 7 -0.2% -1.1%
8/28 7 1.6% 5.6%
8/28 7 ( ) -0.9% -1.4%
8/28 8 86.0 82.3
8/28 8 ( ) - -

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.98 (8/20)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 131 (8/20) 5 : 130
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.58 (8/20)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 410 (8/20) 5 : 358

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.24 (8/20)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.02 (8/20)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 562 (8/20) 5 : 482
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 502 (8/20) 5 : 453

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.32 (8/20)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.22 (8/20)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 463 (8/20) 5 : 396
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 689 (8/20) 5 : 495

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.01 (8/20)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.47 (8/20)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 436 (8/20) 5 : 369
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 365 (8/20) 5 : 322

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.72 (8/20)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.73 (8/20)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 720 (8/20) 5 : 582
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 261 (8/20) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.7 (8/20) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.3 (8/20) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.8 (8/20) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.4 (8/20) 5 : 16.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.7 (8/20) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.0 (8/20) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.3 (8/20) 5 : 17.5
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.6 (8/20) 5 : 12.2
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.72 (8/20) 5 : 17.20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 44.6 (8/20) 5 : 63.1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 54.9 (8/20) 5 : 64.7
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 392 (8/20) 5 : 384
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/8/20 '16/8/20 '17/8/20 '18/8/20 '19/8/20 '20/8/20
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/8/20 '16/8/20 '17/8/20 '18/8/20 '19/8/20 '20/8/20
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/8/20 '16/8/20 '17/8/20 '18/8/20 '19/8/20 '20/8/20
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/8/20 '16/8/20 '17/8/20 '18/8/20 '19/8/20 '20/8/20
5 1
35.3% 0.7%
28.3% 0.1%
5 1
34.1% -0.1%
30.8% 0.1%
5 1
34.7% 0.3%
29.6% 0.1%
5 1
31.2% -0.7%
25.5% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109231
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898