全球股市普遍收漲

1. 23 August
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.6131% 10
-0.644%
•
0.98%
0.79% 475.3
• 0.51%
2.13%
0.14% 0.24%
0.08%
6%
40%
2.9%
Bloomberg 2019/8/22
1.32
2.19
2.69
2.85
-2.79
1.98
1.78
1.42
0.57
-1.10
0.56
-0.43
-1.09
0.57
0.41
-0.69
-0.65
-0.62
-0.13
-0.08
0.01
0.13
0.14
0.24
0.40
0.51
0.59
0.79
0.97
0.98
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
Jackson Hole
G7
7
•
S&P 500 2.65%
DAX
2.93% 600 2.52%
225 1.09%
•
300 2.69% Sensex
2.25%
• 0.40%
14.58%
Bloomberg 2019/8/22
-4.10
-11.14
1.03
-3.79
-3.68
-7.42
-6.33
-6.41
-3.79
-6.01
-3.52
-3.47
-4.36
-2.08
0.31
-4.41
-2.25
0.34
0.40
0.96
1.09
1.26
1.42
1.90
1.96
2.22
2.22
2.52
2.60
2.65
2.69
2.93
SENSEX
MSCI
BAML
BOVESPA
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
H
MSCI
600
RTS
S&P 500
300
DAX
% %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/8/22
•
• 8 16
270 ( ) 190
30 160
9.51
5.15
-6.24
-5.56
-2.75
-7.12
-4.10
-3.63
-4.61
-13.97
-1.55
-5.28
-3.63
-1.65
-1.32
-1.18
-0.90
-0.84
-0.37
-0.23
0.17
0.69
1.62
2.90
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 145 26
43 3
21
• 150
81 31
3 25
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/8/14
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
•
(FOMC) 7
7 1
50
Powell
• 5
90 8 19
90
9
• 8 Markit
(PMI) 49.9
2009 50 ( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/8/22
( 1)
( 2) Markit (PMI)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
2014 8
(9 2 )
• (NAR)
7 542 ( 2)
•
(Volcker Rule)
• 20
Bloomberg 2019/8/22
( 1)
( 2)

10. PAGE 9
• 7
1.0% 1.1% (ECB)
7
9
(APP)
• Boris Johnson
Merkel Macron Merkel
30
Macron
• Conte 20
Salvini
Mattarella
21 2
•
Bloomberg 2019/8/22
( 2)
( 1)

11. PAGE 10
•
(LPR) LPR
LPR
6 4.25%( 1)
•
30% 25%
•
•
2 B
CCC B
B-
Bloomberg 2019/8/22
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/8/23
/ /
8/26 7 1.3% 1.9%
8/26 8 IFO 95.5 95.7
8/27 8 130.0 135.7
8/28 7 M3 ( ) - 4.5%
8/29 2 GDP( ) 2.0% 2.1%
8/29 7 ( ) - 0.0%
8/30 8 92.5 92.1
8/30 7 0.3% 0.4%
8/30 7 0.5% 0.3%
8/30 8 CPI( ) 1.0% 0.9%
8/30 7 7.5% 7.5%
8/30 7 ( ) 0.3% -3.3%
8/30 7 ( ) -0.6% 0.5%
8/30 7 2.3% 2.3%
8/30 7 1.50% 1.50%
8/31 8 PMI 49.6 49.7
8/31 8 PMI 53.9 53.7

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 118.0 (8/22) 5 : 127.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.89 (8/22)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.21 (8/22)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 353.80 (8/22) 5 : 361.2

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.14 (8/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 475.3 (8/22) 5 : 459.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.78 (8/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 393.0 (8/22) 5 : 441.9
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.89 (8/22)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 377.0 (8/22) 5 : 376.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.45 (8/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 590.9 (8/22) 5 : 511.9

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.33 (8/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 359.83 (8/22) 5 : 346.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.13 (8/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 356.39 (8/22) 5 : 335.8

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.07 (8/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 643.0 (8/22) 5 : 564.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.30 (8/22)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 275.86 (8/22) 5 : 256.5

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.7 (8/22) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.0 (8/22) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.8 (8/22) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.9 (8/22) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (8/22) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.8 (8/22) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.2 (8/22) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.4 (8/22) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.68 (8/22) 5 : 15.16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 83.2 (8/22) 5 : 65.2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.5 (8/22) 5 : 68.7
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 344.9 (8/22) 5 : 368.1

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/8/22 '15/8/22 '16/8/22 '17/8/22 '18/8/22 '19/8/22
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/22 '15/8/22 '16/8/22 '17/8/22 '18/8/22 '19/8/22
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/22 '15/8/22 '16/8/22 '17/8/22 '18/8/22 '19/8/22
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/8/22 '15/8/22 '16/8/22 '17/8/22 '18/8/22 '19/8/22
5 1
36.2% 0.4%
29.2% 0.1%
5 1
22.0% 0.8%
31.3% 0.1%
5 1
29.1% 0.6%
30.3% 0.1%
5 1
22.1% 0.3%
26.4% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108182
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
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( )
•
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