柏瑞週報 20191227

1. 27 December
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.9294%
10 1.8944%
10 -0.242%
•
0.16% 0.17%
414.7
•
0.22%
0.14%
0.19%
0.55%
-0.07
-0.72
1.35
-0.74
0.40
0.17
0.85
2.07
2.28
0.09
0.17
1.46
1.71
0.44
3.34
-0.11
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.19
0.19
0.22
0.23
0.55
-
-
% %
Bloomberg 2019/12/26

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 1.08%
•
600
0.91%
•
300
0.03%
•
225 0.25%
•
0.25%
Bloomberg 2019/12/26
0.84
3.66
3.45
1.29
2.36
5.32
3.94
6.13
0.49
4.95
3.24
2.54
6.52
3.16
12.08
9.47
-1.22
-0.15
-0.03
0.25
0.25
0.38
0.46
0.49
0.67
0.77
0.79
0.91
1.01
1.08
1.16
1.80
SENSEX
300
BAML
Nikkei 225
MSCI
H
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
MSCI
600
RTS
S&P 500
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
• 12 20
790 ( )
183
Bloomberg 2019/12/26
-1.09
4.91
5.71
3.54
5.60
3.08
3.48
-1.75
6.05
5.86
5.68
3.42
-2.19
0.00
0.52
0.69
0.75
0.84
0.95
1.20
1.43
1.66
2.07
2.20
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

7. PAGE 6
Bloomberg 2019/12/26
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) GDP
• Trump
• 2020
Trump 7,380 2020
(NDAA)
45
• 3 GDP
2.1%( 2)
2.9% 3.2%
12 99.3
4 GDP
1.3% - 2.3% Trump 3%

8. PAGE 7
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/12/26
•
( 1)
•
1
BC Partners Presidio
12 195
2,691 60%
• 12 21
344
(Cyber Monday)
4
3.8%-4.2% 5 3.7%
• 11
-2%( 2)
(Boeing)
12
4 GDP

9. PAGE 8
•
2020
2020 1 31 11
2020
•
3%
1
7
•
(FTA)
(RCEP)
•
2%
Bloomberg 2019/12/26
( 2)
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• 1~10
85.656 5.4% ( 1) 8
11
• 2020
8,000 1.8
900
1 8
•
7.25%( 2)
2
•
IMF
90
2020 8
CC
Bloomberg 2019/12/26
( 1)
( 2)

12. PAGE 11
Bloomberg 2019/12/27
/ /
12/27 2.40% 2.40%
12/27 ( ) -1.00% -4.50%
12/30 Markit 46.4 45.6
12/31 CPI( ) 0.60% 0.20%
12/31 PMI 50.1 50.2
12/31 128 125.5
12/31 CPI( ) 3.10% 3.50%
01/01 ( ) -8.50% -14.30%
01/02 Markit 52.9 48.2
01/02 Markit -- 49.4
01/02 51.6 51.8
01/02 Markit -- 51.2
01/02 Markit 50.3 50.3
01/02 Markit 45.9 45.9
01/02 Markit PMI ( ) 47.6 47.4
01/02 -- 222k
01/02 Markit 52.5 52.5

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.87 (12/26)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 95.0 (12/26) 5 : 127.1
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.02 (12/26)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 319.28 (12/26) 5 : 355.5

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.62 (12/26)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 414.7 (12/26) 5 : 460.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.13 (12/26)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 324.0 (12/26) 5 : 437.9

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.48 (12/24)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 308.0 (12/24) 5 : 376.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.30 (12/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 546.3 (12/26) 5 : 516.7

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.92 (12/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 292.19 (12/26) 5 : 348.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.97 (12/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 311.79 (12/26) 5 : 337.4

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.84 (12/26)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 601.0 (12/26) 5 : 563.2
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.41 (12/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 256.78 (12/26) 5 : 257.6

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.0 (12/26) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.9 (12/26) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 13.8 (12/24) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 18.3 (12/26) 5 : 17.0

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.8 (12/26) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.5 (12/26) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 20.8 (12/26) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.1 (12/26) 5 : 12.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.65 (12/26) 5 : 15.13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 56.4 (12/26) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.3 (12/26) 5 : 67.1
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 278.3 (12/26) 5 : 367.0

21. PAGE 20
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/26 '15/12/26 '16/12/26 '17/12/26 '18/12/26 '19/12/26
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/12/26 '15/12/26 '16/12/26 '17/12/26 '18/12/26 '19/12/26
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/26 '15/12/26 '16/12/26 '17/12/26 '18/12/26 '19/12/26
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/12/26 '15/12/26 '16/12/26 '17/12/26 '18/12/26 '19/12/26
5 1
37.6% 0.2%
28.8% 0.0%
5 1
32.8% 0.1%
31.1% 0.1%
5 1
35.2% 0.2%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
27.2% 0.3%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

22. PAGE 21
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