柏瑞週報 20200918

1. 18 September
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
0%-0.25% 2023
2%
10
1 0.6887%
10 -0.491%
•
0.34% ESG 0.31%
•
0.08% 488
0.12% 531
•
0.39%
0.73%
Bloomberg 2020/9/17
-0.09
0.47
0.61
0.38
-0.06
0.08
0.53
0.32
0.87
0.14
0.71
0.91
0.35
0.24
1.75
0.31
-0.39
-0.24
-0.12
-0.10
-0.10
-0.08
-0.04
-0.01
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.20
0.31
0.34
0.73
1.01
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
• S&P 500 0.53%
NASDAQ
•
600 1.02%
DAX 0.01%
• 225 0.36%
(SoftBank) SoftBank
400 ARM Nvidia
• 300 1.11%
• 10
0.21%
Bloomberg 2020/9/17
2.22
0.80
2.44
0.96
-6.29
-0.74
-0.30
0.53
-6.81
-3.79
0.50
-0.64
1.15
0.62
0.70
-5.00
-0.01
0.21
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.53
0.83
1.02
1.04
1.11
1.28
1.43
1.64
1.98
2.13
2.19
DAX
BAML
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
H
S&P 500
MSCI
600
MSCI
300
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
% %

5. PAGE 4
40
•
40
• 9 11 EIA
440 ( )
180
Bloomberg 2020/9/17
1.42
-2.06
2.76
7.70
5.19
3.32
13.37
-0.06
2.95
12.71
-4.56
-4.48
-0.47
-0.09
0.61
1.46
1.68
1.70
2.81
3.15
4.03
5.22
8.09
9.84
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 263 237
2 8
25
• 91
46 1
4
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/9/16
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• 9
[1]
0% 0.25% ( 1) 2023
[2] GDP -3.7%
7.6%( 2) [3]
2%
2%
(MBS)
•
2020 11 3
GDP
• IPO 12
68 2019 5
Uber
Snowflake Warren Buffet
Snowflake 33.6
IPO 120
330
Bloomberg 2020/9/17
( 2) GDP
( 1) (%)

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/9/17
( 2) ( %)
•
( 1)
•
130
L Brands
Energizer Holdings Gartner
• 9 12
86
1,300
• 8
0.6%( 2)
1% 13 9
4.7%
600
8
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• 7
4.1%
ZEW
64 5
•
0.1%( 1)
7,450
8
COVID-19
•
•
-0.1% ( 2)
8
0.4% 2016 11
( 1) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/9/17
( 2) (%)

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/9/17
• 8
3.58 2.73 7
8
13.3% 8 1.28
• 8
5.6%
1-8 0.4%
8
0.5%( 1)
• 8 (CPI)
7 6.73% 6.69%( 2)
CPI 3 6%
10
•
Selic 2%
2022
( 1) ( %)
( 2) CPI ( %)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/9/18
/ /
9/21 1 3.85% 3.85%
9/21 5 4.67% 4.65%
9/22 9 -14.8 -14.7
9/22 9 12 18
9/23 9 Markit PMI( ) 52.9 53.1
9/23 7 FHFA ( ) 0.6% 0.9%
9/23 9 Markit PMI( ) 51.5 51.7
9/23 9 PMI( ) - 47.2
9/23 7 ( ) 1.7% 6.1%
9/23 9 CPI( ) 0.37% 0.23%
9/23 2 GDP( ) - -5.4%
9/23 0.50% 0.50%
9/24 8 890k 901k
9/24 9 IFO 93.5 92.6
9/24 1 8.25% 8.25%
9/25 4.38% 4.50%
9/25 8 ( ) 0.8% 11.4%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 1.98 (9/17)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 128 (9/17) 5 : 130
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.52 (9/17)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 403 (9/17) 5 : 358

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.95 (9/17)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.89 (9/17)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 531 (9/17) 5 : 481
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 488 (9/17) 5 : 452

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.06 (9/17)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.22 (9/17)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 436 (9/17) 5 : 397
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 686 (9/17) 5 : 497

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.88 (9/17)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.44 (9/17)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 417 (9/17) 5 : 369
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 356 (9/17) 5 : 321

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.15 (9/17)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.79 (9/17)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 659 (9/17) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 262 (9/17) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.3 (9/17) 5 : 16.2
8
13
18
23
28
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.6 (9/17) 5 : 17.3
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.7 (9/17) 5 : 14.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.4 (9/17) 5 : 16.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.8 (9/17) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.0 (9/17) 5 : 12.1
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.3 (9/17) 5 : 17.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.6 (9/17) 5 : 12.3
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 26.46 (9/17) 5 : 17.19
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 38.5 (9/17) 5 : 62.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 56.0 (9/17) 5 : 64.5
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 342 (9/17) 5 : 384
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/9/17 '16/9/17 '17/9/17 '18/9/17 '19/9/17 '20/9/17
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/17 '16/9/17 '17/9/17 '18/9/17 '19/9/17 '20/9/17
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/17 '16/9/17 '17/9/17 '18/9/17 '19/9/17 '20/9/17
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/9/17 '16/9/17 '17/9/17 '18/9/17 '19/9/17 '20/9/17
5 1
35.8% 0.2%
28.2% 0.2%
5 1
35.5% -0.1%
30.5% 0.1%
5 1
35.7% 0.1%
29.4% 0.1%
5 1
31.2% -0.3%
25.3% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109259
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
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