This document contains market data and statistics from January 31, 2019 including: 1) Interest rates, bond yields, commodities prices and currency exchange rates. 2) Stock market indexes showing performance of major global markets for the day, month and year-to-date. 3) Economic indicators such as PMI surveys and GDP forecasts for various countries. 4) Analysis of trends in markets, economic performance, monetary policies and geopolitical events.

1. 1 February
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
FOMC
10
8.64 2.6293%
•
0.90%
1.00%
14.46 454.01
• 0.72%
5%
0.54% 0.67%
2.45%
Bloomberg 2019/1/31
1.64
0.47
1.98
2.72
1.60
2.45
1.06
3.70
1.98
4.41
4.52
3.42
4.39
1.35
5.46
0.25
0.45
0.46
0.54
0.60
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.67
0.72
0.90
0.90
1.00
1.04
2.45
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 2.34% 1 7.87%
2015 10
•
600
0.84%
•
225 0.97%
•
0.27%
• Vale
Vale BOVESPA
0.29%
•
1.35% 5.67%
Bloomberg 2019/1/31
10.82
3.64
0.52
5.82
2.11
6.23
3.79
5.67
11.29
13.64
7.87
7.80
14.87
8.71
7.30
9.00
-0.29
-0.27
0.17
0.39
0.56
0.84
0.97
1.35
1.89
2.21
2.34
2.37
2.46
2.99
3.13
3.22
BOVESPA
SENSEX
DAX
600
Nikkei 225
MSCI
RTS
500
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
H
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
(PDVSA)
2 OPEC+
• 1 25
91.9 ( )
223.5
Bloomberg EIA 2019/1/31
2.63
0.40
3.71
5.79
3.47
18.45
15.04
3.05
10.21
3.02
3.42
16.74
-0.96
-0.13
-0.08
0.22
1.03
1.24
1.31
1.72
2.99
3.12
4.17
6.03
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 1 30 150
152 37
13 44
16
• 94 47
10 12
4
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/1/31

8. PAGE 7
• 1 FOMC
2.25%~2.5%
S&P 500 ( 1) 10
( 2)
• Trump 3
Trump
2
•
Trump
•
10%
Bloomberg 2019/1/31
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) 10

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 12
1
TransDigm Group
38
• S&P 500
42% 71% ( 2)
62% 4
S&P 500 14.9%
• PG&E
PG&E( )
• GE GE(
) 11% GE
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/1/31
( 2) ( )
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• 4
4 GDP
1.2% 5 4 GDP
0.2% 2018 GDP
1.8% 2014
•
2019 GDP
1.8% 1.5% 1.7%
1.5% 2%
1.9% 1.8%
•
May
3/29
May
• 1
3
Bloomberg 2019/1/31
4
( 1) GDP
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
• PMI 1 PMI
49.5
49.3 49.4 PMI
PMI 53.2
• 1/30
500
TMLF
•
2017-
2018 6.7%
7.2% 2016-2017
7.1% 8.2%
• Vale Vale
Vale Vale
Vale
Bloomberg 2019/1/31
PMI
( 1) PMI
( 2) Vale

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/1/31
/ /
2/4 1 CPI( ) 20.18% 20.30%
2/4/-2/8 12 ( ) 0.50% 0.20%
2/4/-2/8 12 PCE ( ) 1.70% 1.80%
2/4/-2/8 4 GDP( ) 2.60% 3.40%
2/5 RBA 1.50% 1.50%
2/5-2/15 12 ( ) 0.10% 0.20%
2/5-2/15 12 1253k 1256k
2/5-2/15 12 575k 657k
2/5-2/15 12 ( ) 1.70% --
2/6 11 -$54.0b -$55.5b
2/6 Selic 6.50% 6.50%
2/7 RBI -- 6.50%
2/7 0.75% 0.75%
2/8 7.75% 7.75%
2/8 1 IBGE IPCA( ) -- 3.75%
2/10-2/15 1 ( ) 3150.0b 1589.8b
2/10-2/15 1 M2( ) 8.20% 8.10%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 128.0 (1/31) 5 : 125.9
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.91 (1/31)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.85 (1/31)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 322.17 (1/31) 5 : 319.7

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.71 (1/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 454.0 (1/31) 5 : 454.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.90 (1/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 423.0 (1/31) 5 : 438.7
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.89 (1/31)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 456.0 (1/31) 5 : 368.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.09 (1/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 552.3 (1/31) 5 : 507.2

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.25 (1/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 358.06 (1/31) 5 : 340.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.93 (1/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 339.25 (1/31) 5 : 332.5

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.60 (1/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 504.0 (1/31) 5 : 570.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.29 (1/31)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 271.26 (1/31) 5 : 255.5

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.8 (1/31) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.1 (1/31) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.2 (1/31) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.1 (1/31) 5 : 17.5

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (1/31) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.1 (1/31) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 21.3 (1/31) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (1/31) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.57 (1/31) 5 : 14.97
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 49.8 (1/31) 5 : 65.1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 64.3 (1/31) 5 : 71.4
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 352.6 (1/31) 5 : 365.8

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/31 '15/1/31 '16/1/31 '17/1/31 '18/1/31 '19/1/31
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/1/31 '15/1/31 '16/1/31 '17/1/31 '18/1/31 '19/1/31
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/31 '15/1/31 '16/1/31 '17/1/31 '18/1/31 '19/1/31
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/1/31 '15/1/31 '16/1/31 '17/1/31 '18/1/31 '19/1/31
5 1
37.5% 1.3%
29.6% 0.2%
5 1
21.7% 1.0%
31.7% 0.1%
5 1
29.6% 1.2%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
25.2% 0.8%
26.6% 0.1%
2019/1/31
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108029
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•
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