柏瑞週報 20181228

1. 28 December
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
VIX
10
2.7666%
Trump
•
0.44%
0.30% 17.21 546.89
•
0.13%
0.01%
0.04%
Bloomberg 2018/12/27
-2.20
-0.64
1.54
0.46
2.34
-0.85
1.06
1.00
1.61
1.45
1.41
1.03
1.41
1.69
2.06
-0.44
-0.30
-0.24
-0.15
-0.13
-0.07
-0.07
-0.01
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.07
0.09
0.13
0.26
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
Mastercard 2018
S&P 500 0.87%
•
600 2.08% 225
1.54%
•
2.10%
• 6.33% 0.79%
Bloomberg 2018/12/27
-3.82
-2.02
-8.20
-3.56
-7.78
0.83
-8.54
-4.99
-1.37
-2.66
-2.84
-3.02
-1.40
-6.43
-2.77
-7.21
-2.48
-2.45
-2.16
-2.10
-2.08
-1.71
-1.54
-0.99
-0.98
-0.79
-0.78
-0.59
-0.34
-0.11
0.22
0.87
RTS
MSCI
DAX
600
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
H
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
BOVESPA
500
% %

5. PAGE 4
• OPEC
OPEC
(OPEC+)
120
OPEC+
OPEC+
•
Bloomberg EIA 2018/12/27 2018/12/14
OPEC
-13.37
-6.14
-4.09
-13.48
-0.74
2.51
2.46
-0.09
-5.24
-2.21
5.05
4.99
-4.03
-4.00
-3.16
-2.77
-2.74
-2.48
-1.77
-1.33
-1.26
-0.22
-0.20
1.25
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

7. PAGE 6
•
S&P 500 20% (26 )
4.96%( 1)
10 ( 2)
• (Mastercard)
11 1
5.1%
8500
• Trump
Trump Powell
Powell
•
Mnuchin
Bloomberg 2018/12/27
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) 10

8. PAGE 7
• 4
(YTW) 8%
( 1)
•
2018
( 2)
2019
•
12
• Tesla
Tesla
Tesla
Musk
2019
Bloomberg 2018/12/27
( 1)
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
• May
(DUP)
1
May May
May 2
•
Guenther Oettinger
1
•
•
Bloomberg 2018/12/27
May

10. PAGE 9
•
2019 2018
• 1
1
1/7 Jeffrey Gerrish
•
1,500
10 11 3,600
4,000
•
0
Onyx Lorenzoni
Bloomberg 2018/12/27
( 1)
( 2) SENSEX

12. PAGE 11
Bloomberg 2018/12/27

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 152.0 (12/27) 5 : 125.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.25 (12/27)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.33 (12/27)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 356.44 (12/27) 5 : 319.8

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.73 (12/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 546.9 (12/27) 5 : 453.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.07 (12/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 531.0 (12/27) 5 : 437.3
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.32 (12/27)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 513.0 (12/27) 5 : 365.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.79 (12/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 608.3 (12/27) 5 : 505.6

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.85 (12/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 407.01 (12/27) 5 : 339.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.34 (12/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 365.81 (12/27) 5 : 332.0

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.58 (12/27)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 591.0 (12/27) 5 : 571.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.60 (12/27)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 289.29 (12/27) 5 : 255.4

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.2 (12/27) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.3 (12/27) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.8 (12/27) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 14.6 (12/27) 5 : 17.6

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (12/27) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.6 (12/27) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.7 (12/27) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.0 (12/27) 5 : 12.7

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 29.96 (12/27) 5 : 14.86
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 68.3 (12/27) 5 : 65.3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.1 (12/27) 5 : 71.9
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 455.4 (12/27) 5 : 364.3

21. PAGE 20
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/12/27 '14/12/27 '15/12/27 '16/12/27 '17/12/27 '18/12/27
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'13/12/27 '14/12/27 '15/12/27 '16/12/27 '17/12/27 '18/12/27
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/12/27 '14/12/27 '15/12/27 '16/12/27 '17/12/27 '18/12/27
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/12/27 '14/12/27 '15/12/27 '16/12/27 '17/12/27 '18/12/27
2018/12/27
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

22. PAGE 21
TR107238
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