全球股市漲多跌少-市場逐漸將焦點轉向美歐貿易關係，加上歐洲最大經濟體德國的經濟成長數據...

1. 17 January
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.8074%
10
-0.219%
•
0.35%
0.50% 408.0
•
0.65%
0.55%
0.45%
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
1.44
0.44
-0.32
1.40
0.64
0.82
2.18
1.14
1.21
0.90
1.75
1.67
1.03
1.71
2.40
-0.00
0.24
0.34
0.35
0.37
0.38
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.50
0.55
0.58
0.65
0.72
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
• 1 15
2
S&P
500 1.29%
•
600
0.21% DAX
0.49%
• (
) 225
0.81%
•
300 0.37%
SENSEX 1.16%
•
0.02%
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
1.51
0.16
4.05
1.30
0.67
5.10
5.12
4.30
6.30
1.07
-0.08
4.84
3.17
2.43
3.93
5.46
-1.07
-0.49
-0.37
0.02
0.21
0.42
0.50
0.65
0.69
0.80
0.81
1.00
1.09
1.16
1.29
1.36
MSCI
DAX
300
BAML
600
H
MSCI
BOVESPA
RTS
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
S&P 500
MSCI
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
• 1 10
254.9 ( ) 110
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
-2.99
0.22
-3.22
-2.81
-1.10
-1.60
4.85
5.17
1.91
2.82
1.27
5.72
-2.20
-2.07
-2.02
-1.75
-1.15
-0.72
-0.66
0.01
0.47
0.53
1.58
1.89
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 126 16
4 34
38
• 166
80 24
27
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/01/15
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
( 1) S&P 500
( 2)
• Trump
1) 2 2000
2)
3800
3)
4) 5)
• USMCA
1200
• 12
14.5 2.9%
50 3.5%( 2)
FED
FED

9. PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
•
( 1)
•
Presidio 10
• 12
0.3%( 2) 0.7%
7
Target Macy’s
• 2019Q4 FactSet
S&P500 4 2%
J.P. Morgan Citigroup Morgan Stanley
Union Health Delta Airlines
Wells Fargo Goldman Sachs Bank of America

10. PAGE 9
• 11 GDP
0.6 2012 6 12
CPI 1.3%( 1)
Carney
1
• 12
21.7% 4
28% 2020
12
2019 1.2%
•
• 2019 11
18%( 2) 5
27.8%
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
( 2)
( 1) CPI

11. PAGE 10
( 1)
( 2) CPI
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
• 12
2.1 ( 1) 2019
10.7% M2
8.7% 2018 2
• 12
7.6% 4
3.2%
12
16.3% 2018 10
• 5 12 CPI
7.35%( 2) 5
14.12%
• Putin
Putin
Medvedev
Putin Mishustin

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/01/16
/ /
1/20 1 1 (LPR) 4.11% 4.15%
1/20 11 ( ) - -0.9%
1/21 1 ZEW 12.9 10.7
1/21 -0.10% -0.10%
1/22 12 5.43m 5.35m
1/22 1.75% 1.75%
1/23 12 -0.11% 0.00%
1/23 0.00% 0.00%
1/23 1 -7.9 -8.1
1/23 11 ( ) 0.4% -4.3%
1/23 12 ( ) - -33.6%
1/23 7 5.00% 5.00%
1/24 1 Markit PMI( ) 52.7 52.4
1/24 1 Markit PMI( ) 46.7 46.3
1/24 1 Markit PMI( ) 44.3 43.7
1/24 1 PMI( ) - 48.4
1/24 12 CPI( ) 0.7% 0.5%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.78 (1/16)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 95.0 (1/16) 5 : 126.7
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.92 (1/16)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 317.43 (1/16) 5 : 354.4

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.50 (1/16)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 408.0 (1/16) 5 : 459.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.01 (1/16)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 319.0 (1/16) 5 : 435.9

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.36 (1/16)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 304.0 (1/16) 5 : 375.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.91 (1/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 519.8 (1/16) 5 : 516.1

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.83 (1/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 291.32 (1/16) 5 : 347.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.79 (1/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 304.10 (1/16) 5 : 336.7

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.71 (1/16)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 597.0 (1/16) 5 : 560.2
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.24 (1/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 251.93 (1/16) 5 : 257.3

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.4 (1/16) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 18.9 (1/16) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 15.1 (1/16) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 17.7 (1/16) 5 : 17.0

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.1 (1/16) 5 : 12.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.2 (1/16) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 20.8 (1/16) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.7 (1/16) 5 : 12.3

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.32 (1/16) 5 : 15.07
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 50.4 (1/16) 5 : 65.2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.0 (1/16) 5 : 66.9
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 279.6 (1/16) 5 : 366.0

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/16 '16/1/16 '17/1/16 '18/1/16 '19/1/16 '20/1/16
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/1/16 '16/1/16 '17/1/16 '18/1/16 '19/1/16 '20/1/16
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/16 '16/1/16 '17/1/16 '18/1/16 '19/1/16 '20/1/16
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/16 '16/1/16 '17/1/16 '18/1/16 '19/1/16 '20/1/16
5 1
36.6% 0.0%
28.8% 0.1%
5 1
36.1% 0.5%
31.0% 0.1%
5 1
36.3% 0.2%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
29.8% 0.7%
26.1% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR109010
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
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407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
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