柏瑞週報 20190816

1. 16 August
2019

3. PAGE 2
• 10 2
30
2%
10 1.5269%
GDP 10
2
10
-0.713%
•
0.35%
1.61% 513.6
• 0.68%
32.88%
0.47%
0.28%
0.66% 1.57%
0.84%
40%
Bloomberg 2019/8/15
-1.92
-1.66
-2.23
0.50
-1.20
-0.71
0.39
-0.50
1.49
1.89
2.27
2.31
3.47
3.65
3.55
-1.61
-1.57
-0.84
-0.68
-0.61
-0.35
-0.28
-0.24
0.47
0.66
0.67
0.79
1.10
1.26
1.70
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
2 10
2007
• S&P 500 3.08%
600 2.57% DAX
3.65% 225 0.91%
•
300
0.67% Macri
MSCI
6.84%
• 0.67%
(GE)
6.94%
Bloomberg 2019/8/15
-12.33
-4.57
-9.39
-9.84
-7.87
-5.53
-6.29
-5.84
-8.91
-5.05
-8.63
-7.91
-5.90
-4.08
1.21
-3.40
-6.84
-4.86
-4.78
-4.12
-3.65
-3.08
-2.89
-2.57
-2.11
-1.59
-1.38
-0.93
-0.91
-0.04
0.67
0.67
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
RTS
DAX
S&P 500
MSCI
600
MSCI
H
MSCI
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
BAML
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/8/15
•
• 8 9
370 ( ) 276.1
370 81
-18.20
-7.63
-7.36
-4.85
-3.88
-7.13
-6.34
-3.26
-12.41
7.72
18.92
-8.58
-12.23
-5.92
-1.74
-1.41
-0.81
-0.17
0.20
0.22
1.48
1.49
2.33
3.67
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 47 4
17 9
34
• 160
107 30
2 11
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/8/14
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• 9 1
3,000 10%
12 15
Trump
1,100
9 1 10%
• Trump
10%
5 90
8 19
( 1)
• 7 (CPI)
1.8%( 2) CPI
2.2% 6
9 1
Bloomberg 2019/8/15
( 1) 10
( 2) ( )

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Tenet Healthcare
• 7
0.7%( 2)
• 7 NFIB
6 103.3 104.7
2
Bloomberg 2019/8/15
( 1)
( 2) ( )

10. PAGE 9
• GDP GDP
0.1%( 1)
0.4% 0.4%
• Boris Johnson
(Operation Kingfisher)
•
mini-BOTs
•
9
Bloomberg 2019/8/15
GDP
( 2) 225
( 1) GDP( )

11. PAGE 10
• 7 M2
8.1% 8.4% 7
1.06
1.01 ( 1) 2,103
•
7 4.8% 2002 2
7.6%
8.6%
1-7
5.7% 5.8%
•
(FPIs)
•
Macri
32.2% 47.7%
Fernandez Fernandez
IMF
( 2) Macri
Bloomberg 2019/8/15
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/8/15
/ /
8/19 7 CPI( ) 1.1% 1..3%
8/19 7 -¥194.5b ¥589.5b
8/21 7 5.38m 5.27m
8/21 6 ( ) 2.0% 2.8%
8/21 7 CPI( ) 4.3% 4.5%
8/22 8 Markit PMI( ) 50.5 50.4
8/22 7 0.2% -0.3%
8/22 FOMC - -
8/22 8 Markit PMI( ) 46.5 46.5
8/22 8 Markit PMI( ) 43.0 43.2
8/22 8 PMI( ) - 49.4
8/22 6 ( ) -0.8% 0.3%
8/22 7 ( ) - -33.0%
8/22 7 5.75% 5.75%
8/23 7 645k 646k
8/23 7 CPI( ) 0.5% 0.7%
8/23 2 GDP ( ) -0.7% -0.7%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 124.0 (8/15) 5 : 127.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.87 (8/15)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.24 (8/15)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 365.85 (8/15) 5 : 361.5

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.46 (8/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 513.6 (8/15) 5 : 459.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.23 (8/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 444.0 (8/15) 5 : 441.7
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.06 (8/15)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 415.0 (8/15) 5 : 376.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.51 (8/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 601.9 (8/15) 5 : 511.4

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.39 (8/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 374.11 (8/15) 5 : 346.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.13 (8/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 363.81 (8/15) 5 : 335.6

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.16 (8/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 660.0 (8/15) 5 : 563.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.29 (8/15)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 279.32 (8/15) 5 : 256.3

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.3 (8/15) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.6 (8/15) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.4 (8/15) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.7 (8/15) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.8 (8/15) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.4 (8/15) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.6 (8/14) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (8/15) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 21.18 (8/15) 5 : 15.14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 90.6 (8/15) 5 : 65.1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.9 (8/15) 5 : 68.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 370.4 (8/15) 5 : 367.9

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/8/15 '15/8/15 '16/8/15 '17/8/15 '18/8/15 '19/8/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/15 '15/8/15 '16/8/15 '17/8/15 '18/8/15 '19/8/15
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/15 '15/8/15 '16/8/15 '17/8/15 '18/8/15 '19/8/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/8/15 '15/8/15 '16/8/15 '17/8/15 '18/8/15 '19/8/15
5 1
36.2% 0.7%
29.2% 0.1%
5 1
21.2% -0.6%
31.3% 0.1%
5 1
28.7% 0.0%
30.3% 0.1%
5 1
21.7% -1.5%
26.4% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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