柏瑞週報 20181102

1. 2 November
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
10 1.36
3.1303% Merkel
10 0.1
0.399%
•
0.14%
0.01%
7.04 424.82
•
0.18%
2.4%
2.25% 0.75%
Bloomberg 2018/11/1
商品 資金流向
-2.58
-1.09
-1.41
-0.65
-0.56
-1.77
-1.70
-0.61
-0.41
-0.24
-0.99
-1.62
-0.21
-1.06
0.53
-1.02
-0.38
-0.25
-0.19
-0.18
-0.18
-0.14
-0.13
-0.07
-0.03
-0.01
0.01
0.07
0.22
0.39
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P
500 1.29%
•
600 2.26%
225
1.97%
•
0.09% 2.5%
• (PSL)
Bolsonaro BOVESPA
5.16%
3.40%
• 10
0.01%
Bloomberg 2018/11/1
商品 資金流向
-1.25
-7.62
-5.15
-5.03
-6.70
-6.30
-7.05
-6.78
-10.55
6.01
-5.73
-5.43
-7.16
-9.63
-10.92
12.46
-0.01
0.09
0.72
0.95
1.01
1.29
1.43
1.80
1.97
2.00
2.20
2.26
2.37
2.45
3.40
5.16
MSCI
RTS
H
500
DAX
MSCI
Nikkei 225
MSCI
SENSEX
600
MSCI
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
10
OPEC
• (EIA)
10 26 321.7 ( )
6
Bloomberg EIA 2018/11/1
商品 資金流向
-15.42
-14.23
-4.37
-5.76
-2.54
-3.11
-5.66
3.74
0.27
3.56
-0.29
2.83
-5.41
-5.20
-3.68
-3.00
-2.18
-1.62
-1.40
0.10
1.59
1.74
4.26
4.78
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 10 31 14
2 38
18
29
• 82 6
50 29
9
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/11/1
商品 資金流向

8. PAGE 7
• Trump
11
20 (G20)
S&P
500 2600 ( 1)
• GDP 3 (GDP)
3.5 2 4.2
3.3
GDP ( 2)
• (ISM)10
9 59.8 57.7( 2)
59 6
• 9 (PCE)
0.1% 8 2.2% 2%
9 PCE 0.2%
2%
Bloomberg 2018/11/1
( 1) S&P 500 K
( 2) GDP ISM

9. PAGE 8
• 3 S&P 500 7
77% ( 1)
60% 3
S&P 500 26.2% 4
18.7%
•
12 9 2.46% 10 2.34%
9 1.67% 1.62%
• Sprint Sprint
84.3
80
Sprint ( 2)
• T-Mobile T-Mobile 77.4
62.8 T-Mobile
Sprint
Bloomberg Refinitiv Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/11/1
S&P 500

10. PAGE 9
•
( 1)
• GDP
GDP 0.2% 2014
1.7% 1.8%
2.1%( 2)
GDP
Salvini
•
0.75%
•
7:2
2018
1.4%( 1.5%) 1.1% 0.9%
2019 2020 1.9% 2.0%
Bloomberg 2018/11/1

11. PAGE 10
•
A
( 1)
• 10
PMI 50.2( 2)
50.8 1.2
PMI 53.9
•
12 17
• ICICI ICICI
908
2,058 56% 949
22.5% 54489
Bloomberg 2018/11/1
( 1)
( 2) (PMI)

12. PAGE 11
• Bolsonaro
(PSL)
Bolsonaro 38
Moro Moro
Lula
•
6.5%
•
133
Obrado 12 1
•
13.4
23.5 9.3 15.2
Bloomberg 2018/11/1
Bolsonaro
( 1) BOVESPA
( 2)

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg 2018/11/1
/ / 本益比 風險
/ /
11/5 10 ISM 59.4 61.6
11/5 10 Markit 54.7 54.7
11/5 10 - 50.2
11/5 10 CPI( ) 24.70% 24.52%
11/6 -- --
11/6 10 Markit 53.3 53.3
11/6 9 ( ) -2.8% -2.1%
11/7 9 ( ) 0.5% 1.8%
11/7 10 ( ) 4.66% 4.53%
11/7 9 ( ) - -5.6%
11/8 FOMC ( ) 2.25% 2.25%
11/8 9 ( ) -10.0% 6.8%
11/9 11 97.9 98.6
11/9 GDP( ) 1.4% 1.2%
11/9 9 ( ) -0.1% 0.2%
11/9 10 M2 ( ) 2.8% 2.8%
11/9 10 CPI( ) - 2.5%

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 119.0 (11/1) 5 : 125.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.27 (11/1)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.86 (11/1)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 273.37 (11/1) 5 : 321.0

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.81 (11/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 424.8 (11/1) 5 : 452.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.85 (11/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 372.0 (11/1) 5 : 436.6
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.47 (11/1)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 407.0 (11/1) 5 : 362.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.92 (11/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 582.3 (11/1) 5 : 503.0

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.79 (11/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 365.02 (11/1) 5 : 337.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.32 (11/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 323.84 (11/1) 5 : 331.6

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.26 (11/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 524.0 (11/1) 5 : 574.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.85 (11/1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 275.13 (11/1) 5 : 255.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.4 (11/1) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.8 (11/1) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.9 (11/1) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 15.5 (11/1) 5 : 17.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (11/1) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.0 (11/1) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.0 (11/1) 5 : 17.9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.4 (11/1) 5 : 12.7

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.34 (11/1) 5 : 14.62
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 58.5 (11/1) 5 : 65.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.0 (11/1) 5 : 72.7
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 366.7 (11/1) 5 : 362.3

23. PAGE 22
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/11/1 '14/11/1 '15/11/1 '16/11/1 '17/11/1 '18/11/1
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/1 '14/11/1 '15/11/1 '16/11/1 '17/11/1 '18/11/1
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/1 '14/11/1 '15/11/1 '16/11/1 '17/11/1 '18/11/1
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'13/11/1 '14/11/1 '15/11/1 '16/11/1 '17/11/1 '18/11/1
2018/11/1
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

24. PAGE 23
TR107196
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
101 013
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898