柏瑞週報20201016

1. 16 October
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
5 0.7322%
10 9 -0.61%
•
0.45%
ESG 0.41%
•
0.09% 475
0.16% 526
•
0.25%
0.21%
0.19%
Bloomberg 2020/10/15
-1.57
-2.22
-0.79
-0.07
-0.53
0.50
0.14
-0.04
-1.01
-0.11
-0.33
0.31
0.16
-0.10
0.33
1.50
-0.48
-0.19
-0.16
-0.09
0.06
0.09
0.16
0.21
0.25
0.26
0.29
0.32
0.41
0.45
0.48
0.90
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
• S&P 500 1.06%
•
DAX
Delivery Hero
• 225 0.59% UNIQLO
Fast Retailing
M3
•
•
0.12%
Bloomberg 2020/10/15
-9.77
-3.89
-9.68
-2.17
1.75
0.22
-0.14
0.37
0.71
1.10
1.96
-4.86
2.42
-1.24
-0.68
2.35
-3.01
-2.60
-2.29
-1.47
-1.13
-0.59
-0.46
0.12
0.28
0.34
0.37
0.42
1.06
1.16
1.43
4.61
MSCI
DAX
RTS
600
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
BAML
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
S&P 500
BOVESPA
H
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
0.56%
40.96
• 10 9 (EIA)
380 ( )
230
Bloomberg 2020/10/15
7.00
6.49
2.69
-2.33
-0.18
7.14
-2.84
5.86
3.49
14.86
10.31
1.47
-0.56
-0.42
0.35
0.79
0.99
1.17
2.56
2.56
2.63
3.86
4.33
5.18
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 86 60
10 5
5
• 176
102 20
21
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/10/14
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• Trump
1.8
(Mnuchin) (Pelosi)
(McConnell) 1.8
2.2
5,000 Mnuchin Pelosi
Trump
•
(Eli Lilly)
AstraZeneca
• WTO
40
(Boeing)
16
Robert Lighthizer (Airbus)
Airbus
Bloomberg 2020/10/15
( 2)
( 1) S&P500

9. PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/10/15
( 2) ( )
•
( 1)
•
VIX
150
(Rolls Royce)
Restaurant Brands
•
FactSet S&P 500 138
3
EPS MORGAN
STANLEY BANK OF AMERICA GOLDMAN SACHS
PNC FINANCIAL CITI GROUP JP MORGAN
UNITED AIRLINES UNITED HEALTH PEPSI
EPS JOHNSON & JOHNSON
WELLS FARGO DELTA AIRLINES
• 10 10
89.8 ( 2)
1
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• ( 1)
4 6
• 10
15 2
1 31 12
31
•
10 ZEW
9 77.4 56.1 72( 2)
•
8
0.2% 7 6.3%
1%
( 1)
Bloomberg 2020/10/15 BBC 2020/10/14
( 2) ZEW

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/10/15
• 9
3.48 3.15 3
29.62 9.01
9 1.9
• CPI 1
9 (CPI)
1.7%( 1) 2019 2
CPI (PPI)
3 PPI 2.1%
1.8%
• 9
(CPI) 7.34%( 2)
6.9% 6%
2
• 7
0.5%
2020
1.3% 20
9
( 1) (%)
( 2) (%)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/10/15
/ /
10/19 10 NAHB 81.9 83
10/19 3 GDP( ) 5.3% 3.2%
10/19 9 ( ) 5.8% 5.6%
10/19 9 ( ) 1.8% 0.5%
10/20 9 1,457k 1,416k
10/20 9 ( ) - -15.0%
10/22 9 6.25m 6.00m
10/22 9 0.7% 1.2%
10/22 10 - -13.9
10/22 1 11.88% 10.25%
10/23 10 Markit PMI( ) 56.7 53.2
10/23 10 Markit PMI( ) 52.7 53.7
10/23 10 PMI( ) - 47.7
10/23 9 CPI( ) 0.0% 0.2%
10/23 10 CPI( ) 0.70% 0.45%
10/23 9 $2,890m $3,721m
10/23 4.25% 4.25%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 391 (10/15) 5 : 358
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.43 (10/15)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.01 (10/15)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 126 (10/15) 5 : 129

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.94 (10/15)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 526 (10/15) 5 : 480
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.85 (10/15)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 475 (10/15) 5 : 450

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.22 (10/15)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 460 (10/15) 5 : 397
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.69 (10/15)
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 750 (10/15) 5 : 499

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.00 (10/15)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 421 (10/15) 5 : 369
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.50 (10/15)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 354 (10/15) 5 : 320

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.14 (10/15)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 654 (10/15) 5 : 579
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.85 (10/15)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 264 (10/15) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.3 (10/15) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.0 (10/15) 5 : 17.4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.0 (10/15) 5 : 14.7
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.4 (10/15) 5 : 16.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.5 (10/15) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.4 (10/15) 5 : 12.1
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.9 (10/15) 5 : 17.7
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.8 (10/15) 5 : 12.4

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
/ /
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 26.97 (10/15) 5 : 17.29
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 55.6 (10/15) 5 : 62.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 54.5 (10/15) 5 : 64.3
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 372 (10/15) 5 : 383

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/10/15 '16/10/15 '17/10/15 '18/10/15 '19/10/15 '20/10/15
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/10/15 '16/10/15 '17/10/15 '18/10/15 '19/10/15 '20/10/15
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/10/15 '16/10/15 '17/10/15 '18/10/15 '19/10/15 '20/10/15
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/10/15 '16/10/15 '17/10/15 '18/10/15 '19/10/15 '20/10/15
5 1
35.1% 0.1%
28.2% 0.1%
5 1
35.9% -0.2%
30.4% 0.1%
5 1
35.5% 0.0%
29.3% 0.1%
5 1
29.3% 0.3%
25.2% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109288
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898