柏瑞週報 20191101

1. 01 November
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.6910% 10
-0.407%
•
0.12% 0.02%
479.4
• 0.02%
5.68% 0.15%
0.12%
0.14% 25.53%
4.5%
Bloomberg 2019/10/31
2.90
0.28
0.23
0.81
0.28
-0.74
0.26
0.35
1.41
0.52
0.25
0.85
1.55
0.07
0.61
-0.14
-0.12
-0.03
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
0.05
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.21
0.51
0.60
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 0.91%
•
600 0.16%
•
225
0.78%
300
0.42%
•
0.22%
Bloomberg 2019/10/31
4.14
0.73
0.92
3.53
3.26
2.36
6.00
4.89
1.89
4.09
6.67
2.64
5.38
2.04
4.43
3.78
-0.91
-0.22
-0.16
-0.04
0.00
0.22
0.24
0.34
0.42
0.44
0.66
0.76
0.78
0.91
1.04
2.84
MSCI
BAML
600
DAX
H
BOVESPA
MSCI
300
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
Nikkei 225
S&P 500
MSCI
SENSEX
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
• 10 25
570 ( ) 250
Bloomberg EIA 2019/10/31
0.20
-0.90
1.19
1.26
2.62
-2.38
1.70
4.39
7.85
2.75
0.52
1.95
-3.65
-2.34
-1.77
-1.41
-1.41
-1.28
-0.46
-0.34
-0.32
0.59
0.84
1.80
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 61 10
13 9
14
• 78
37 14
19
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/10/30
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• (FED)
1 (0.25%)
1.5% - 1.75%( 1) FOMC
FED
FED
•
(Trump)
Trump
• GDP
GDP 1.9%( 2) 2.0%
2.9% 4.6%
Bloomberg 2019/10/31
( 1)
( 2) GDP

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 10
2013 9
BBA Aviation TransDigm
2
• Fiat Chrysler Peugeot
(Fiat Chrysler) (Peugeot) PSA
50/50
484 4
•
S&P 500 FactSet
75% ( 2)
(General Electric)
Apple Facebook AT&T HSBC
Google Alphabet
Bloomberg 2019/10/31
( 1)
( 2) S&P 500

10. PAGE 9
• GDP 0.2
10
0.7 9 0.1% 2
• 12
3 2020 1 31
10 30 12 12
Corbyn
•
-0.1%
2020 3 0.7%
Bloomberg 2019/10/31
( 2)
( 1) GDP

11. PAGE 10
• PMI 10
PMI 49.3
6
•
(Alberto Fernandez)
(Mauricio Macri)
1 200
• 5.5%
5.0% 3
12
•
6.5%
4.0% - 4.5% 3.2% - 3.7%
Bloomberg 2019/10/31
( 1) PMI
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/11/1
/ /
11/4 9 ( ) -1.1% -1.1%
11/4 9 -0.5% -0.1%
11/5 9 -$53.0b -$54.9b
11/5 10 ISM 53.4 52.6
11/5 RBA 0.75% 0.75%
11/6 9 ( ) 2.4% 2.1%
11/6 9 ( ) 0.1% -0.6%
11/6 1.25% 1.50%
11/7 9 ( ) -4.4% -4.0%
11/7 10 IBGE ( ) 2.54% 2.89%
11/7 0.750% 0.750%
11/8 11 96.0 95.5
11/8 9 92.2 91.9
11/9 10 CPI( ) 3.2% 3.0%
11/9 10 PPI( ) -1.5% -1.2%
11/9-11/15 10 M2 ( ) 8.4% 8.4%
11/9-11/15 10 ( ) 887.5b 2270.0b

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.84 (10/31)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 110.0 (10/31) 5 : 127.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.09 (10/31)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 341.77 (10/31) 5 : 358.2

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.16 (10/31)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 479.4 (10/31) 5 : 461.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.70 (10/31)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 392.0 (10/31) 5 : 440.8

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.87 (10/31)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 383.0 (10/31) 5 : 377.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.25 (10/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 558.9 (10/31) 5 : 515.4

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.10 (10/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 328.44 (10/31) 5 : 348.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.04 (10/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 339.64 (10/31) 5 : 337.7

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.22 (10/31)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 657.0 (10/31) 5 : 565.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.35 (10/31)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 268.17 (10/31) 5 : 257.4

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.4 (10/31) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 17.6 (10/31) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.6 (10/31) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 16.9 (10/31) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.7 (10/31) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (10/31) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 19.6 (10/31) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.4 (10/31) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.22 (10/31) 5 : 15.18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 65.9 (10/31) 5 : 65.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.0 (10/31) 5 : 67.7
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 337.6 (10/31) 5 : 368.0

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/31 '15/10/31 '16/10/31 '17/10/31 '18/10/31 '19/10/31
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/10/31 '15/10/31 '16/10/31 '17/10/31 '18/10/31 '19/10/31
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/10/31 '15/10/31 '16/10/31 '17/10/31 '18/10/31 '19/10/31
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/31 '15/10/31 '16/10/31 '17/10/31 '18/10/31 '19/10/31
5 1
36.8% -0.2%
29.0% 0.2%
5 1
26.2% 0.0%
31.2% 0.1%
5 1
31.5% -0.1%
30.1% 0.1%
5 1
22.8% -0.1%
26.3% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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