柏瑞週報 20190912

1. 12 September
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.7385%
10
-0.564%
•
0.45%
0.37% 460.0
•
0.96% 9.42%
0.54% 0.07%
0.96%
0.08%
3.29%
1.6%
Bloomberg 2019/9/11
0.28
0.11
-0.36
-0.13
1.59
0.55
0.83
0.47
0.14
-0.31
1.55
-0.38
1.51
0.17
-0.84
-1.66
-1.64
-1.36
-0.96
-0.85
-0.84
-0.56
-0.54
0.07
0.08
0.15
0.37
0.45
0.46
0.96
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
• Powell
S&P 500
2.15%
•
DAX
2.78% 600 1.70%
225 4.59%
•
300
1.13%
•
0.29%
Bloomberg 2019/9/11
1.07
8.16
2.82
-0.83
4.88
5.06
2.87
2.82
2.76
-0.53
3.65
5.72
5.69
5.13
-2.49
4.41
-0.29
1.13
1.25
1.49
1.70
1.80
2.14
2.15
2.18
2.22
2.67
2.69
2.78
2.87
3.34
4.59
BAML
300
SENSEX
600
RTS
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
H
DAX
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
% %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/9/11
•
(John Bolton)
• 9 6
691.2 ( ) 260
68.2 85
0.33
-1.42
2.29
14.79
3.90
-12.25
0.30
0.95
0.54
5.77
3.05
-4.40
-3.55
-1.03
-0.91
-0.83
0.18
0.42
0.43
0.60
1.02
2.29
2.82
3.64
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

7. PAGE 6
•
2500 5%
10 15
• 8
13 ( 1)
3.7%
3.2%
• 7
233
4.1
• 8
(PPI) 0.1%( 2)
1.8%
Bloomberg 2019/9/11
( 1)
( 2)

8. PAGE 7
•
( 1)
•
9
• 8
103.1
• (Ford)
(Moody’s)
Baa3 Ba1
(S&P) (Fitch Rating)
Bloomberg 2019/9/11
( 1)
( 2) NFIB

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2019/9/11
( 2)
( 1)• 7
0.6% 4.2%
3
( 1) 7 0.7%( 2)
• Olaf Scholz
30
Merkel
• 9 10
10 14
Johnson
10 19
1 31
•
(WTO)

10. PAGE 9
•
9 16
2
4 10
15 11 15
9,000
• QFII/RQFII
(QFII) (RQFII)
• 8 11 5957
41% 10
•
0.81%
0.85% 3.8% 3.6%
Bloomberg 2019/9/11
( 1)
( 2)

12. PAGE 11
Bloomberg 2019/9/12
/ /
9/16 9 4.0 4.8
9/16 8 ( ) 5.2% 4.8%
9/16 8 ( ) 8.0% 7.6%
9/17 8 ( ) 0.2% -0.2%
9/17 9 ZEW -36.0 -44.1
9/18 8 1250k 1191k
9/18 8 CPI( ) 1.0% 1.0%
9/18 Selic 5.50% 6.00%
9/19 FOMC ( ) 2.00% 2.25%
9/19 8 0.1% 0.5%
9/19 8 5.39m 5.42m
9/19 0.750% 0.750%
9/19 - -0.10%
9/19 7 ( ) - -0.8%
9/19 SARB 6.50% 6.50%
9/19 7 - 5.50%
9/20 8 CPI( ) - 0.5%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.00 (9/11)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 118.0 (9/11) 5 : 127.7
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.20 (9/11)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 343.74 (9/11) 5 : 360.5

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.07 (9/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 460.0 (9/11) 5 : 460.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.66 (9/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 372.0 (9/11) 5 : 442.0

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.80 (9/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 365.0 (9/11) 5 : 377.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.47 (9/11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 581.8 (9/11) 5 : 513.3

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.20 (9/11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 334.00 (9/11) 5 : 347.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.15 (9/11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 345.15 (9/11) 5 : 336.6

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.12 (9/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 638.0 (9/11) 5 : 565.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.40 (9/11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 273.77 (9/11) 5 : 256.8

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.2 (9/11) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 17.5 (9/11) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.4 (9/11) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 16.6 (9/11) 5 : 17.1

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.8 (9/11) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.6 (9/11) 5 : 12.6
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 19.7 (9/11) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (9/11) 5 : 12.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.61 (9/11) 5 : 15.22
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 76.7 (9/11) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.7 (9/11) 5 : 68.4
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 322.4 (9/11) 5 : 368.3

21. PAGE 20
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/9/11 '15/9/11 '16/9/11 '17/9/11 '18/9/11 '19/9/11
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/9/11 '15/9/11 '16/9/11 '17/9/11 '18/9/11 '19/9/11
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/9/11 '15/9/11 '16/9/11 '17/9/11 '18/9/11 '19/9/11
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/9/11 '15/9/11 '16/9/11 '17/9/11 '18/9/11 '19/9/11
5 1
37.5% -0.3%
28.9% 0.1%
5 1
24.1% 0.4%
31.3% 0.1%
5 1
30.8% 0.0%
30.1% 0.1%
5 1
22.6% -0.9%
26.3% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

22. PAGE 21
TR108196
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