柏瑞週報 20190329

1. 29 March
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10 2.3946%
•
0.04%
0.46%
26.09 445.05
•
0.13%
0.09%
0.60%
2.45%
Bloomberg 2019/3/28
-1.65
0.41
0.21
1.13
0.73
1.22
1.68
2.77
0.92
2.12
1.82
2.12
1.94
2.02
2.04
-2.45
-0.62
-0.46
-0.13
0.04
0.09
0.18
0.26
0.29
0.60
0.61
0.64
0.69
0.87
1.00
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 1.38%
•
600 1.01% 100
1.64%
•
225 2.66%
•
3.43%
BOVESPA 2.42%
• 10 14
0.11% 8.44%
Bloomberg 2019/3/28
-4.78
-0.99
1.84
-1.64
1.60
-1.25
-0.55
-0.64
0.58
0.33
1.11
-0.76
1.08
1.42
0.87
7.47
-5.25
-3.73
-3.43
-2.66
-2.45
-2.42
-2.29
-2.16
-1.66
-1.63
-1.38
-1.05
-1.01
-0.69
0.11
0.41
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
RTS
BOVESPA
MSCI
H
MSCI
MSCI
500
DAX
600
SENSEX
% %

5. PAGE 4
• Trump OPEC
Trump (OPEC)
OPEC
OPEC+
• 3 22
280 ( ) 250
288.3
Bloomberg EIA 2019/3/28
-0.89
5.76
-1.74
3.64
0.32
-2.29
-1.25
3.31
2.65
2.71
-0.42
3.20
-2.31
-1.70
-1.45
-1.13
-1.10
-0.95
-0.84
-0.60
-0.43
-0.06
0.18
1.13
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 125 77
48 13
20
• 86 52
9 22
12 11
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/3/28

8. PAGE 7
•
2007
3 10
( 1)
(
)
• Trump Trump
2016
Mueller Trump
Barr
•
Kudlow
• GDP 4 (GDP)
2.2%( 2)
2.6% 3 3.4%
Bloomberg 2019/3/28
( 1)
( 2) GDP

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Realogy MGM
• IHS Markit
3 (PMI) 2 53
52.5 2017 6 3 PMI
56 54.8( 2) 50
• PG&E (PG&E)
PIMCO
PG&E
PG&E
Bloomberg 2019/3/28
( 2) Markit (PMI)
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• Draghi
•
4 12 May
( 1)
• 3
(PMI) 44.7( 2) 2012 8
50
4 10.7
10.4
• 3
(PMI) 48.9( 2)
2
0.7% 0.8%
Bloomberg 2019/3/28
( 1) /
( 2) / PMI

11. PAGE 10
•
3
• 1 2
14.0% 7080
•
( 1)
• Guedes
Guedes
Bolsonaro
Maia
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/3/28
( 1) /
( 2) /

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
4/1 3 ( ) -6.60% -11.10%
4/1 3 50 49.9
4/1 2 7.80% 7.80%
4/1 3 CPI ( ) 1.50% 1.50%
4/1 2 ( ) 0.30% 0.20%
4/1 3 ISM 54.3 54.2
4/2 2 -1.20% 0.30%
4/3 3 52.5 51.1
4/3 3 CPI( ) 19.60% 19.67%
4/3 2 ( ) 0.10% 1.30%
4/3 3 ADP 180k 183k
4/3 3 ISM 58 59.7
4/4 RBI 6.00% 6.25%
4/5 2 ( ) 0.80% -0.80%
4/5 3 175k 20k
4/5 3 3.80% 3.80%
4/5 3 ( ) 3.40% 3.40%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 119.0 (3/28) 5 : 126.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.60 (3/28)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.66 (3/28)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 326.04 (3/28) 5 : 319.2

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.44 (3/28)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 445.1 (3/28) 5 : 455.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.52 (3/28)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 402.0 (3/28) 5 : 439.3
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.38 (3/28)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 408.0 (3/28) 5 : 371.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.41 (3/28)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 511.2 (3/28) 5 : 507.6

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.05 (3/28)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 358.34 (3/28) 5 : 340.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.68 (3/28)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 336.21 (3/28) 5 : 332.6

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.65 (3/28)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 531.0 (3/28) 5 : 565.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.90 (3/28)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 260.48 (3/28) 5 : 255.2

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.6 (3/28) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.9 (3/28) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.9 (3/28) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.3 (3/28) 5 : 17.4

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.4 (3/28) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.8 (3/28) 5 : 12.8
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 23.9 (3/28) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.5 (3/28) 5 : 12.8

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.43 (3/28) 5 : 14.96
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 59.9 (3/28) 5 : 64.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 62.6 (3/28) 5 : 70.7
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 357.5 (3/28) 5 : 366.6

22. PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/3/28 '15/3/28 '16/3/28 '17/3/28 '18/3/28 '19/3/28
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/3/28 '15/3/28 '16/3/28 '17/3/28 '18/3/28 '19/3/28
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/3/28 '15/3/28 '16/3/28 '17/3/28 '18/3/28 '19/3/28
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/3/28 '15/3/28 '16/3/28 '17/3/28 '18/3/28 '19/3/28
5 1
35.6% 0.1%
29.3% 0.1%
5 1
21.1% -0.2%
31.6% 0.1%
5 1
28.3% -0.1%
30.4% 0.1%
5 1
21.3% -0.4%
26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108074
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
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