柏瑞週報 20190315

1. 15 March
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
•
0.41%
0.62%
10.66 425.18
• 0.61%
2%
0.33% 0.45%
0.72%
0.47%
Bloomberg 2019/3/14
1.10
0.23
0.43
1.00
0.99
0.96
0.78
0.91
1.21
1.15
0.49
2.44
0.89
1.27
2.07
-0.13
0.03
0.11
0.30
0.33
0.36
0.36
0.37
0.41
0.45
0.47
0.54
0.61
0.62
0.72
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 2.17%
2800
•
600 1.24%
• 225
0.79%
• 3.73%
BOVESPA
4.52%
•
0.49% 8.33%
Bloomberg 2019/3/14
9.96
0.70
2.48
1.26
2.22
2.57
0.87
1.95
4.49
2.07
4.05
2.20
2.29
5.24
-1.42
0.60
-3.73
-0.79
-0.11
-0.08
0.20
0.36
0.44
0.49
0.60
0.76
1.24
1.55
2.17
2.80
3.94
4.52
Nikkei 225
H
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
600
MSCI
500
SENSEX
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
• OPEC+
(OPEC) OPEC
• 3 8
386.2 ( ) 300
462.4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/3/14
5.66
-0.55
4.35
-1.25
-1.20
2.61
4.12
5.95
2.86
9.03
-10.70
7.72
-2.61
-0.44
-0.30
0.82
1.37
1.39
1.40
1.63
2.09
3.29
3.31
3.44
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 142 255
46 11
28
• 92 58
16 9
10 9
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/3/14

8. PAGE 7
• CPI 2 (CPI)
0.2%
1.5%( 1) 1.6% 2 CPI
1 0.1% 2.1%
2.2%
• 2 2
2017 9
18 2 1
4 3.8 ( 2) 2
3.4
• 1 12
0.4%
0.8%
• Trump
Trump 4
Bloomberg 2019/3/14
( 1) (CPI)
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Power Solutions
2
• 1
0.2%( 2) 12
1.6% (12 1.2%
) 1
1.2% 12
• GE (GE)
2019
2020
Bloomberg 2019/3/14
( 2)
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• May
391 242
412 202
50 3 29
27
( 1)
•
(Deutsche
Bank) (Commerzbank)
• Ifo 2019
1.1% 0.6%
• 1
5.4%( 2) 1.5%
18.1%
Bloomberg 2019/3/14
( 1) /
( 2)

11. PAGE 10
• 2 20.7%
2016 2
5.2%( 1) 41.2
1 2 5.3%
• 2 (CPI)
1.5% 2018 1 3%
2 (PPI) 0.1%
2 7030
• 2 CPI 2.57 ( 2)
2.4 4
• Bolsonaro
2
1.2
Bloomberg 2019/3/14
( 1)
( 2) (CPI)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
3/18 3 NAHB 63 62
3/19 3 ZEW -11.5 -13.4
3/20 2 CPI( ) 4.10% 4.00%
3/20 FOMC ( ) 2.50% 2.50%
3/21 0.75% 0.75%
3/21 2 0.10% -0.10%
3/21 3 -7.4 -7.4
3/21 7 6.00% 6.00%
3/21 4 GDP( ) -- -0.70%
3/22 2 ( ) 0.30% 0.20%
3/22 3 -- 48.9
3/22 3 Markit 49.5 49.3
3/22 3 Markit 52.5 52.8
3/22 7.75% 7.75%
3/22 3 Markit 54 53
3/22 3 Markit 56.5 56
3/22 2 ( ) 3.20% -1.20%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 121.0 (3/14) 5 : 126.2
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.85 (3/14)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.65 (3/14)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 301.67 (3/14) 5 : 319.2

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.42 (3/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 425.2 (3/14) 5 : 454.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.55 (3/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 386.0 (3/14) 5 : 439.1
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.44 (3/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 405.0 (3/14) 5 : 370.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.69 (3/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 514.0 (3/14) 5 : 507.7

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.15 (3/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 345.87 (3/14) 5 : 340.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.82 (3/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 326.99 (3/14) 5 : 332.4

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.53 (3/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 497.0 (3/14) 5 : 566.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.15 (3/14)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 260.37 (3/14) 5 : 255.3

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.6 (3/14) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.8 (3/14) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.0 (3/14) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.5 (3/14) 5 : 17.4

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.4 (3/14) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.7 (3/14) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 23.4 (3/14) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (3/14) 5 : 12.8

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.50 (3/14) 5 : 14.97
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 45.2 (3/14) 5 : 64.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.1 (3/14) 5 : 70.9
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 343.0 (3/14) 5 : 366.4

22. PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/3/14 '15/3/14 '16/3/14 '17/3/14 '18/3/14 '19/3/14
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/3/14 '15/3/14 '16/3/14 '17/3/14 '18/3/14 '19/3/14
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/3/14 '15/3/14 '16/3/14 '17/3/14 '18/3/14 '19/3/14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/3/14 '15/3/14 '16/3/14 '17/3/14 '18/3/14 '19/3/14
5 1
36.5% 0.5%
29.4% 0.2%
5 1
21.2% 0.6%
31.6% 0.1%
5 1
28.9% 0.5%
30.5% 0.1%
5 1
22.0% 0.7%
26.6% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108057
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
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