柏瑞週報 20200214

1. 14 February
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10 1.6173%
10 -0.386%
•
0.45%
0.03% 435.8
• 0.25%
0.36% 0.39%
0.33%
Bloomberg 2020/2/13
-0.86
0.21
1.54
1.57
1.41
1.14
0.57
1.86
1.10
1.30
1.18
1.38
1.42
0.57
0.98
2.75
-0.33
0.03
0.22
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.36
0.39
0.42
0.43
0.45
0.50
0.74
ESG ( )
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
4
Powell
•
S&P 500 0.84%
•
600
1.31% DAX 1.26%
•
300 1.54% 225
0.19%
• 0.28%
Bloomberg 2020/2/13
-6.29
-4.05
-0.10
-4.71
0.81
-3.32
-2.66
-0.96
-1.42
1.12
-2.87
-4.93
2.61
2.18
3.03
-5.81
-0.49
-0.34
-0.19
0.27
0.28
0.33
0.36
0.37
0.41
0.53
0.63
0.66
0.84
1.26
1.31
1.54
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
RTS
BAML
MSCI
SENSEX
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
H
S&P 500
DAX
600
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
• OPEC
OPEC+
60
OPEC
• 2 7
745.9 ( ) 320
Bloomberg 2020/2/13
-3.20
-8.54
-5.28
-2.57
1.81
-2.78
-11.47
-7.95
-5.86
-5.75
-4.88
-12.24
-2.16
-1.45
-0.24
0.07
0.58
0.63
0.92
0.96
1.06
1.72
1.73
2.57
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 125 31
3 10
27
• 236
134 34
21
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/2/12
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
( 1) ( )
( 2)
• Powell
600
• Iowa Caucus
(New Hampshire)
2020
Bernie Sanders
Pete Buttigieg Warren Biden
• 1
22.5 ( 1)
2013 3.6 ( 2)
• 1 (CPI)
0.1% 2.5%( 2) 2018
10 Powell
2%
Bloomberg 2020/2/13

9. PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2020/2/13
•
( 1)
• 2
225 2015
JPMorgan Leveraged Finance conference
• Bloomberg
8 S&P500
7
Nvidia Cisco Applied
Material CVS Health Shopify Pinterest
Alibaba Under Armour Uber Lyft
• T-Mobile Sprint
T-Mobile Sprint
T-Mobile Sprint
T-
Mobile Sprint

10. PAGE 9
•
2 17
• 12
-2.1%( 1) 1.6% 4
4.0%
•
38
37
35
• 1
(PPI) 1.7%( 2) 14
1
35.6% 808
Bloomberg 2020/2/13
( 1) ( )
( 2) PPI

11. PAGE 10
( 1) CPI PPI
( 2) CPI
Bloomberg 2020/2/13
• (COVID-19)
13
10 1
5,111 252
• CPI 1 CPI 5.4%
( 1) 8
1 PPI 0.1%
6
• 1 CPI 7.59%
( 2) 2
6%
• Eskom
Eskom
4,500 2,500
Moody‘s

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/2/13
/ /
2/17 4 GDP ( ) -3.7% 1.8%
2/18 2 5.4 4.8
2/18 2 ZEW - 25.6
2/18 2 ZEW 21.6 26.7
2/19 1 1,425k 1,608k
2/19 12 ( ) -8.0% 18.0%
2/19 1 10.75% 11.25%
2/20 1 0.3% -0.3%
2/20 2 -8.2 -8.1
2/20 1 4.07% 4.15%
2/20 7 4.75% 5.00%
2/21 2 Markit PMI( ) 51.4 51.9
2/21 1 5.43m 5.54m
2/21 2 Markit PMI( ) 47.2 47.9
2/21 1 CPI( ) 1.4% 1.4%
2/21 2 PMI( ) - 48.8
2/21 1 ( ) 0.7% 0.8%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.61 (2/13)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 96.0 (2/13) 5 : 126.1
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.80 (2/13)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 320.80 (2/13) 5 : 352.8

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.66 (2/13)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 435.8 (2/13) 5 : 457.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.10 (2/13)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 341.0 (2/13) 5 : 434.0

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.29 (2/13)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 318.0 (2/13) 5 : 375.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.89 (2/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 537.5 (2/13) 5 : 515.5

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.75 (2/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 302.16 (2/13) 5 : 346.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.63 (2/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 306.66 (2/13) 5 : 335.7

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.00 (2/13)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 642.0 (2/13) 5 : 556.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.11 (2/13)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 258.57 (2/13) 5 : 257.0

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.7 (2/13) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 19.3 (2/13) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.6 (2/13) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 18.0 (2/13) 5 : 17.0

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.9 (2/13) 5 : 12.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.7 (2/13) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 21.6 (2/13) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.5 (2/13) 5 : 12.3

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.15 (2/13) 5 : 15.03
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 63.5 (2/13) 5 : 64.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 59.6 (2/13) 5 : 66.7
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 281.1 (2/13) 5 : 364.9

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/13 '16/2/13 '17/2/13 '18/2/13 '19/2/13 '20/2/13
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/2/13 '16/2/13 '17/2/13 '18/2/13 '19/2/13 '20/2/13
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/13 '16/2/13 '17/2/13 '18/2/13 '19/2/13 '20/2/13
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/13 '16/2/13 '17/2/13 '18/2/13 '19/2/13 '20/2/13
5 1
36.3% 0.3%
28.8% 0.1%
5 1
33.5% 0.2%
31.0% 0.1%
5 1
34.9% 0.2%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
29.2% 0.0%
26.1% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR109030
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
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