柏瑞週報 20181222

1. 22 December
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
10 2.8%
2.7902% FOMC 2019
•
2.36%
1.20%
48.26 535.12
•
0.11%
0.03%
0.27%
1.12%
Bloomberg 2018/12/21
商品 資金流向
-2.11
-0.97
-0.88
0.03
1.75
1.62
1.40
0.67
1.15
1.41
0.48
1.36
1.54
1.81
0.66
-2.36
-1.20
-0.37
-0.29
-0.11
-0.11
0.01
0.03
0.26
0.27
0.32
0.38
0.45
0.66
1.12
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 7.05%
Nasdaq 8.36%
•
2019
600 3.04%
• 225
5.65% Softbank
Corp.
IPO 14%
•
2.99%
• 6.28% 1.22%
Bloomberg 2018/12/21
商品 資金流向
-8.80
-6.24
-6.89
-4.46
-5.18
-5.10
-3.67
-2.35
-5.43
-1.80
-1.48
-1.82
-2.10
-3.21
-0.67
1.54
-7.05
-5.65
-5.07
-3.52
-3.04
-2.99
-2.50
-2.42
-2.13
-2.00
-1.64
-1.50
-1.22
-1.08
-1.00
-0.61
500
Nikkei 225
MSCI
RTS
600
H
MSCI
DAX
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
10 40%
OPEC+
• (EIA)
12 14 49.7 ( )
3
Bloomberg EIA 2018/12/21
商品 資金流向
-16.55
-15.22
-4.35
-6.96
3.06
-3.91
-1.32
0.20
4.63
-2.57
-2.28
2.45
-10.96
-10.72
-8.07
-4.54
-3.02
-2.29
-1.85
-1.75
-1.62
-1.61
-0.88
1.42
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 12 19 83
44 17
45 10
54
• 101 55
30 11 10
20
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/12/21
商品 資金流向

8. PAGE 7
• FOMC
1 (0.25%)
2.25%~2.5%
( 1) FOMC
9 3 2 ( 1 )
( 2)
2.3%
•
Mnuchin
1 Navarro
90
• Trump
22 0
Bloomberg 2018/12/21
( 1) S&P 500
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
• 4
( 1)
(YTW) 8%
( 2)
•
12
• Micron S&P
Micron( )
Micron S&P
Micron BB+
Micron
• Altria Altria 128
Juul Labs 35
Altria
S&P Fitch Altria
A- BBB
Bloomberg 2018/12/21

10. PAGE 9
• 11
1.9%
2%
1%
• May
1
May
•
2019
GDP 2.04% 2019
1.5% 1.0%
•
Bloomberg 2018/12/21

11. PAGE 10
•
•
(TMLF)
TMLF
MLF
15 3.15%
• Arun
Jaitley 2018 6,500
4,100
•
8.25% 2008
Bloomberg 2018/12/21
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2018/12/21

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 148.0 (12/21) 5 : 125.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.26 (12/21)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.28 (12/21)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 348.58 (12/21) 5 : 319.8

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.67 (12/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 535.1 (12/21) 5 : 452.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.97 (12/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 514.0 (12/21) 5 : 436.9
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.31 (12/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 510.0 (12/21) 5 : 364.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.78 (12/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 604.7 (12/21) 5 : 505.2

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.83 (12/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 402.51 (12/21) 5 : 338.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.34 (12/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 360.12 (12/21) 5 : 331.8

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.57 (12/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 584.0 (12/21) 5 : 571.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.61 (12/21)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 287.87 (12/21) 5 : 255.3

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.9 (12/21) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.8 (12/21) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.1 (12/21) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 14.6 (12/21) 5 : 17.6

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (12/21) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.8 (12/21) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.6 (12/21) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.0 (12/21) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 30.11 (12/21) 5 : 14.81
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 61.6 (12/21) 5 : 65.3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 61.9 (12/21) 5 : 72.0
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 475.1 (12/21) 5 : 363.9

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/12/21 '14/12/21 '15/12/21 '16/12/21 '17/12/21 '18/12/21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'13/12/21 '14/12/21 '15/12/21 '16/12/21 '17/12/21 '18/12/21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/12/21 '14/12/21 '15/12/21 '16/12/21 '17/12/21 '18/12/21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/12/21 '14/12/21 '15/12/21 '16/12/21 '17/12/21 '18/12/21
2018/12/21
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR107230
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•
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