柏瑞週報 20181123

1. 23 November
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
10
3.1% 4.76
3.0627% 16
•
0.32%
0.42%
19.99 469.63
•
1.18%
0.57% 0.37%
0.13%
Moody’s
( B1 B2)
Bloomberg 2018/11/22
商品 資金流向
-2.15
-1.38
-0.64
-1.77
-1.82
-0.48
-1.81
-0.36
-0.20
0.27
0.34
0.12
0.47
0.87
1.10
-0.95
-0.57
-0.54
-0.42
-0.38
-0.37
-0.32
-0.23
-0.13
-0.06
-0.01
0.25
0.27
0.37
1.18
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
• iPhone
S&P 500
2.94%
•
600 1.63%
Nissan Carlos
Ghosn
225 0.72%
•
BOVESPA
1.75%
• 0.18%
Bloomberg 2018/11/22
商品 資金流向
-3.84
-3.08
-3.35
-1.99
-2.60
-0.42
-0.69
-0.36
2.48
-4.28
-0.70
-1.76
-4.86
1.95
1.97
2.20
-2.94
-1.91
-1.90
-1.63
-1.14
-1.03
-1.03
-0.85
-0.79
-0.72
-0.50
-0.18
0.35
0.64
0.72
1.75
500
MSCI
DAX
600
H
MSCI
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
Trump
OPEC
• (EIA)
11 16 485.1 ( )
9
Bloomberg EIA 2018/11/22
商品 資金流向
-21.58
-21.02
-12.45
-2.10
-1.82
2.85
-6.21
-2.79
-4.39
-3.01
0.21
0.44
-6.03
-3.24
-2.58
-1.56
-1.34
-0.65
-0.29
0.23
0.34
0.91
1.15
1.16
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 11 20 9
10 6
10 6 19
• 73 9 8
37 31
3
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/11/22
商品 資金流向

8. PAGE 7
• Clarida
12
( 1)
• Pence APEC
Pence
Lighthizer
G20
• (Apple)
iPhone
NVIDIA
FANG+ ( 2)
Bloomberg 2018/11/22
( 1) 10
( 2) FANG+ S&P 500

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
2~3
100
40
• GE (GE)
GE 40
GE
GE
(CDS)
( 2)
• Bausch
Bausch
Bausch
Bloomberg Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/11/22

10. PAGE 9
•
•
•
Di Maio
• 10
(CPI) 1.0%
Bloomberg 2018/11/22

11. PAGE 10
• MSCI A ESG MSCI
A ESG
ESG
•
25 6.75%
(MPC)
3% 6%
•
1 1
•
12 2011
Bloomberg 2018/11/22
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2018/11/23
/ / 本益比 風險
/ /

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 131.0 (11/21) 5 : 125.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.33 (11/21)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.03 (11/22)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 297.03 (11/22) 5 : 320.1

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.22 (11/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 469.6 (11/22) 5 : 451.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.26 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 418.0 (11/21) 5 : 436.3
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.97 (11/22)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 465.0 (11/22) 5 : 362.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 9.07 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 606.8 (11/21) 5 : 503.6

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.02 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 394.82 (11/21) 5 : 337.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.44 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 343.58 (11/21) 5 : 331.4

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.56 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 560.0 (11/21) 5 : 572.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.86 (11/21)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 285.35 (11/21) 5 : 255.1

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.9 (11/22) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.2 (11/21) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.6 (11/22) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 15.5 (11/22) 5 : 17.7

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.4 (11/22) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (11/22) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.1 (11/22) 5 : 18.0
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.3 (11/22) 5 : 12.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.80 (11/21) 5 : 14.69
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 57.6 (11/21) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.7 (11/22) 5 : 72.4
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 407.9 (11/21) 5 : 362.6

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/11/22 '14/11/22 '15/11/22 '16/11/22 '17/11/22 '18/11/22
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/22 '14/11/22 '15/11/22 '16/11/22 '17/11/22 '18/11/22
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/22 '14/11/22 '15/11/22 '16/11/22 '17/11/22 '18/11/22
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'13/11/22 '14/11/22 '15/11/22 '16/11/22 '17/11/22 '18/11/22
2018/11/22
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR107209
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
101 013
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