柏瑞週報 20200207

1. 07 February
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
10
1.6422%
10 -0.370%
•
0.62%
0.58% 439.2
•
0.30%
Moody‘s
0.27%
0.12% 0.45%
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
1.28
1.16
0.63
1.60
1.29
0.96
1.18
0.87
1.38
1.50
0.61
-0.54
1.65
0.52
0.40
0.57
-0.54
-0.50
-0.47
-0.23
-0.16
-0.07
0.05
0.12
0.27
0.30
0.36
0.45
0.56
0.58
0.62
0.72
ESG ( )
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
Trump
S&P 500 1.89%
•
600 2.49% DAX
3.17%
225 3.90%
•
300 2.60%
H 4.25%
•
0.58%
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
-5.56
-1.84
-1.44
-3.36
-4.93
0.84
1.55
3.07
1.82
2.13
-0.91
-1.70
3.41
0.16
2.88
-3.59
-2.60
-0.33
-0.29
-0.13
0.07
0.58
0.96
1.89
1.98
2.49
2.76
2.87
3.17
3.79
3.90
4.25
300
RTS
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
BAML
SENSEX
S&P 500
MSCI
600
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
Nikkei 225
H
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC
OPEC
• 1 31
335.5 ( ) 300
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
-20.29
-19.47
-3.04
1.14
0.06
-9.03
-1.43
-5.24
-6.75
-5.05
-6.57
-5.50
-5.76
-2.28
-1.65
-0.76
-0.48
-0.39
-0.07
0.35
0.54
0.87
2.64
3.49
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 143 127
38 22
17
• 160
127 3
1
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/2/5
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
(Iowa Caucus)
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) ( )
• (Iowa Caucus) 2020
(Iowa Caucus)
Pete Buttigieg Bernie
Sanders Joe Biden
Trump
95%
• Trump
Gallup
Trump
49%
• 2 1
20.2 (
2) 4
12
2020

9. PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) ISM
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
•
( 1)
•
128
Acronic 5
Griffon 4
• Bloomberg
7 S&P500
74%
Tesla Qualcomm
Disney Twitter Exxon
Chevron Caterpillar Ford ON Semiconductor
EPS : Google
Alphabet Merck
• ISM 1
(PMI) 47.8 50.9( 1)
5 2019 7
1 ISM
PMI 55.5 8

10. PAGE 9
( 1) GDP
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
• 4 2019 4 GDP
0.1%( 1)
GDP
GDP 0.1%
GDP 0.3% 7
• Lagarde
1
• 1 31
11 3
• 12
-0.9% -4.8%( 2)
2%

11. PAGE 10
( 1) PMI
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
•
1.7
10
750
• 1 PMI
51.1( 1) 5
PMI 51.8 3
•
5.15% ( 2)
•
4.25%( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/2/6
/ /
2/10 2 Sentix - 7.6
2/10 1 CPI( ) 4.9% 4.5%
2/10 1 PPI( ) 0.1% -0.5%
2/10-2/15 M2 ( ) 8.6% 8.7%
2/10-2/15 1 ( ) 4,391.0b 2,100.0b
2/12 12 ( ) -0.7% -1.5%
2/12 RBNZ 1.00% 1.00%
2/13 1 CPI( ) 2.5% 2.3%
2/13 1 CPI( ) 1.7% 1.7%
2/13 1 PPI( ) 1.4% 0.9%
2/14 2 98.4 99.8
2/14 1 ( ) 0.3% 0.3%
2/14 1 ( ) -0.3% -0.3%
2/14 4 GDP ( ) 1.0% 1..0%
2/14 4 GDP( ) 0.4% 0.5%
2/14 12 ( ) 0.1% 1.3%
2/14 7.00% 7.25%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.64 (2/6)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 96.0 (2/6) 5 : 126.3
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.82 (2/6)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 321.18 (2/6) 5 : 353.2

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.71 (2/6)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 439.2 (2/6) 5 : 458.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.28 (2/6)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 356.0 (2/6) 5 : 434.4

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.33 (2/6)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 322.0 (2/6) 5 : 375.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.94 (2/6)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 536.8 (2/6) 5 : 515.6

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.77 (2/6)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 301.27 (2/6) 5 : 346.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.68 (2/6)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 308.91 (2/6) 5 : 335.9

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.85 (2/6)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 626.0 (2/6) 5 : 557.2
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.17 (2/6)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 259.34 (2/6) 5 : 257.0

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.7 (2/6) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 19.1 (2/6) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 13.2 (2/6) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 17.8 (2/6) 5 : 17.0

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.8 (2/6) 5 : 12.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.5 (2/6) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 21.1 (2/6) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.4 (2/6) 5 : 12.3

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.96 (2/6) 5 : 15.03
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 61.2 (2/6) 5 : 64.9
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.0 (2/6) 5 : 66.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 284.7 (2/6) 5 : 365.2

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/6 '16/2/6 '17/2/6 '18/2/6 '19/2/6 '20/2/6
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/2/6 '16/2/6 '17/2/6 '18/2/6 '19/2/6 '20/2/6
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/6 '16/2/6 '17/2/6 '18/2/6 '19/2/6 '20/2/6
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/6 '16/2/6 '17/2/6 '18/2/6 '19/2/6 '20/2/6
5 1
36.4% 0.6%
28.8% 0.0%
5 1
33.8% 0.5%
31.0% 0.1%
5 1
35.1% 0.5%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
29.2% 0.2%
26.1% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR109027
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898