23 February
2019
PAGE 2
•
Trump
1 FOMC
10
2.6518%
•
0.35%
0.53% 432.07
• 0.52%
0.29%
0.12%
0.78%
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
1.32
0.63
0.95
1.61
1.51
0.94
1.75
2.02
1.31
2.06
2.70
2.28
2.07
1.89
2.01
0.05
0.06
0.11
0.12
0.22
0.26
0.29
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.38
0.52
0.53
0.70
0.78
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
S&P 500
0.62%
•
600 0.62%
DAX 1.40%
•
225 2.51%
• 1
4.54%
•
0.11% 6.64%
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
2.62
-1.57
2.93
6.07
4.55
2.90
5.38
3.31
1.87
2.45
3.89
4.33
4.75
5.93
7.67
8.70
0.11
0.17
0.37
0.62
0.62
0.66
1.19
1.40
1.66
1.77
2.51
2.56
2.72
3.09
4.48
4.54
SENSEX
BOVESPA
500
600
MSCI
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
RTS
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
H
% %
PAGE 4
• OPEC+
(OPEC)
OPEC
• 2 15
367.2 ( )
145.4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/2/22
-6.62
-0.99
0.11
3.34
9.14
2.83
-1.76
5.75
1.59
8.92
9.15
12.13
-3.47
0.13
0.30
0.51
1.31
1.51
2.31
2.68
2.90
3.00
4.69
4.76
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 2 20 127
43 39
11 5 19
• 46 23
5
3,900
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/2/21
PAGE 7
• Trump
7
Trump
• 1 FOMC
( 1)
• Markit PMI 2 Markit
(PMI) 54.9 53.7
PMI 54.2 56.2( 2)
• 12
12 1.2%
12 0.7%
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
( 1) 10
( 2) Markit (PMI)
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
• S&P 500
9 69% ( 2)
60% 4
S&P 500 16.3%
• Bausch
Bausch EBITDA
Bausch
2018
10
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/2/22
( 2) ( )
( 1)
PAGE 9
•
(TLTRO)
• May
Junker
• 2 Markit
PMI 74 47.6 PMI 5
55.1 1 53.0
2 PMI 52.7
• 2
48.5 50.3
1 54.4 47.0 2016 5
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
( 1)
( 2) PMI
PAGE 10
•
•
1 4.64
3.23
• Jair Bolsonaro
2/20
10 1.2 ( 3,200
•
Eskom
Moody's
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
( 1)
( 2) BOVESPA
BOVESPA
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
/ /
2/26 12 ( ) -0.40% 3.20%
2/26 12 ( ) -2.60% 5.00%
2/26 12 FHFA ( ) 0.40% 0.40%
2/26 12 CoreLogic 20 ( )( ) 0.30% 0.30%
2/26 2 124 120.2
2/27 1 ( ) 0.80% -2.20%
2/28 2 PMI 54.5 54.7
2/28 2 PMI 49.5 49.5
2/28 4 GDP( ) 6.70% 7.10%
2/28 4 GDP( ) 0.20% 0.80%
2/28 4 GDP ( ) 2.40% 3.40%
2/28 7 1.75% 1.75%
3/1 2 48.7 48.3
3/1 2 CPI ( ) 1.50% 1.40%
3/1 1 ( ) 0.30% --
3/1 12 PCE ( ) 1.70% 1.80%
3/1 2 ISM 55.6 56.6
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 125.0 (2/22) 5 : 126.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.90 (2/22)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.77 (2/22)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 311.82 (2/22) 5 : 319.5
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.52 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 432.1 (2/22) 5 : 454.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.65 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 395.0 (2/22) 5 : 438.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.69 (2/22)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 429.0 (2/22) 5 : 369.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.94 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 534.5 (2/22) 5 : 507.6
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.21 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 350.86 (2/22) 5 : 340.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.85 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 327.60 (2/22) 5 : 332.4
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.52 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 494.0 (2/22) 5 : 568.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.24 (2/22)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 264.32 (2/22) 5 : 255.4
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.4 (2/22) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.7 (2/22) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.7 (2/22) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.5 (2/22) 5 : 17.4
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (2/22) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (2/22) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 22.1 (2/22) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.1 (2/22) 5 : 12.8
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.51 (2/22) 5 : 14.96
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 47.2 (2/22) 5 : 64.9
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.7 (2/22) 5 : 71.2
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 346.4 (2/22) 5 : 366.0
PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
5 1
36.2% 0.1%
29.6% 0.0%
5 1
20.9% 0.5%
31.7% 0.1%
5 1
28.5% 0.3%
30.6% 0.1%
5 1
23.0% 0.5%
26.6% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108046
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

柏瑞週報 20190223

  • 1.
  • 3.
    PAGE 2 • Trump 1 FOMC 10 2.6518% • 0.35% 0.53%432.07 • 0.52% 0.29% 0.12% 0.78% Bloomberg 2019/2/22 1.32 0.63 0.95 1.61 1.51 0.94 1.75 2.02 1.31 2.06 2.70 2.28 2.07 1.89 2.01 0.05 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.22 0.26 0.29 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.52 0.53 0.70 0.78 - - % %
  • 4.
    PAGE 3 • S&P 500 0.62% • 6000.62% DAX 1.40% • 225 2.51% • 1 4.54% • 0.11% 6.64% Bloomberg 2019/2/22 2.62 -1.57 2.93 6.07 4.55 2.90 5.38 3.31 1.87 2.45 3.89 4.33 4.75 5.93 7.67 8.70 0.11 0.17 0.37 0.62 0.62 0.66 1.19 1.40 1.66 1.77 2.51 2.56 2.72 3.09 4.48 4.54 SENSEX BOVESPA 500 600 MSCI MSCI DAX MSCI RTS Nikkei 225 MSCI MSCI H % %
  • 5.
    PAGE 4 • OPEC+ (OPEC) OPEC •2 15 367.2 ( ) 145.4 Bloomberg EIA 2019/2/22 -6.62 -0.99 0.11 3.34 9.14 2.83 -1.76 5.75 1.59 8.92 9.15 12.13 -3.47 0.13 0.30 0.51 1.31 1.51 2.31 2.68 2.90 3.00 4.69 4.76 CRB LME LME LME LME % %
  • 6.
    PAGE 5 • 220 127 43 39 11 5 19 • 46 23 5 3,900 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/2/21
  • 8.
    PAGE 7 • Trump 7 Trump •1 FOMC ( 1) • Markit PMI 2 Markit (PMI) 54.9 53.7 PMI 54.2 56.2( 2) • 12 12 1.2% 12 0.7% Bloomberg 2019/2/22 ( 1) 10 ( 2) Markit (PMI)
  • 9.
    PAGE 8 • ( 1) • •S&P 500 9 69% ( 2) 60% 4 S&P 500 16.3% • Bausch Bausch EBITDA Bausch 2018 10 Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/2/22 ( 2) ( ) ( 1)
  • 10.
    PAGE 9 • (TLTRO) • May Junker •2 Markit PMI 74 47.6 PMI 5 55.1 1 53.0 2 PMI 52.7 • 2 48.5 50.3 1 54.4 47.0 2016 5 Bloomberg 2019/2/22 ( 1) ( 2) PMI
  • 11.
    PAGE 10 • • 1 4.64 3.23 •Jair Bolsonaro 2/20 10 1.2 ( 3,200 • Eskom Moody's Bloomberg 2019/2/22 ( 1) ( 2) BOVESPA BOVESPA
  • 13.
    PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2019/2/22 // 2/26 12 ( ) -0.40% 3.20% 2/26 12 ( ) -2.60% 5.00% 2/26 12 FHFA ( ) 0.40% 0.40% 2/26 12 CoreLogic 20 ( )( ) 0.30% 0.30% 2/26 2 124 120.2 2/27 1 ( ) 0.80% -2.20% 2/28 2 PMI 54.5 54.7 2/28 2 PMI 49.5 49.5 2/28 4 GDP( ) 6.70% 7.10% 2/28 4 GDP( ) 0.20% 0.80% 2/28 4 GDP ( ) 2.40% 3.40% 2/28 7 1.75% 1.75% 3/1 2 48.7 48.3 3/1 2 CPI ( ) 1.50% 1.40% 3/1 1 ( ) 0.30% -- 3/1 12 PCE ( ) 1.70% 1.80% 3/1 2 ISM 55.6 56.6
  • 14.
    PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE* ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 125.0 (2/22) 5 : 126.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.90 (2/22) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.77 (2/22) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 311.82 (2/22) 5 : 319.5
  • 15.
    PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 20122013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.52 (2/22) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 432.1 (2/22) 5 : 454.6 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.65 (2/22) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 395.0 (2/22) 5 : 438.8 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16.
    PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P.Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.69 (2/22) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 429.0 (2/22) 5 : 369.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.94 (2/22) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 534.5 (2/22) 5 : 507.6
  • 17.
    PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P.Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.21 (2/22) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 350.86 (2/22) 5 : 340.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.85 (2/22) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 327.60 (2/22) 5 : 332.4
  • 18.
    PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P.Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.52 (2/22) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 494.0 (2/22) 5 : 568.1 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.24 (2/22) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 264.32 (2/22) 5 : 255.4
  • 19.
    PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 15.4 (2/22) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 16.7 (2/22) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.7 (2/22) 5 : 15.3 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 15.5 (2/22) 5 : 17.4
  • 20.
    PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEXBOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.3 (2/22) 5 : 12.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.2 (2/22) 5 : 12.7 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 22.1 (2/22) 5 : 18.3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.1 (2/22) 5 : 12.8
  • 21.
    PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX // 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.51 (2/22) 5 : 14.96 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 47.2 (2/22) 5 : 64.9 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 63.7 (2/22) 5 : 71.2 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 346.4 (2/22) 5 : 366.0
  • 22.
    PAGE 21 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/2/22 '15/2/22'16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22 5 1 36.2% 0.1% 29.6% 0.0% 5 1 20.9% 0.5% 31.7% 0.1% 5 1 28.5% 0.3% 30.6% 0.1% 5 1 23.0% 0.5% 26.6% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23.
    PAGE 22 TR108046 PineBridge InvestmentsIP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898