柏瑞週報 20200131

1. 31 January
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.5856% 3 10
10
-0.406%
•
0.43% 0.39%
461.9
•
0.43%
0.10%
0.20%
0.99%
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
-0.93
0.72
0.06
0.09
1.42
0.45
1.48
1.37
1.53
1.38
1.57
2.08
1.76
2.75
2.13
-0.99
-0.68
-0.43
-0.39
-0.29
-0.28
0.10
0.20
0.40
0.43
0.47
0.72
0.88
0.90
1.07
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500
1.26%
•
600 1.16%
•
225 3.44% H 5.73%
5.75%
2 3
• SENSEX 1.14%
• 0.11%
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
-5.24
-8.02
-4.15
-4.08
-4.11
-2.44
-2.87
-0.10
-0.28
0.20
-0.69
1.94
-0.24
-1.55
-1.90
0.84
-5.75
-5.73
-4.72
-4.40
-4.23
-3.82
-3.44
-3.35
-3.23
-1.78
-1.73
-1.26
-1.16
-1.14
0.00
0.11
H
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
BOVESPA
RTS
MSCI
DAX
S&P 500
600
SENSEX
300
BAML
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
WTI 8
OPEC OPEC+ 3 2
• 1 24
354.8 ( ) 129
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
-10.15
-5.12
-15.47
-14.83
-11.84
-8.41
-6.73
-2.25
-5.25
0.81
-0.73
3.91
-6.67
-6.66
-6.21
-6.04
-5.47
-4.14
-3.66
-3.62
-3.57
-3.45
-1.40
0.73
LME
LME
LME
CRB
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 38 36
10 13
7
• 162
120 26
7
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/1/29
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
( 1)
( 2) IHS Markit PMI
• (Fed)
1.50% 1.75%
( 1)
4
2% (
) Fed
• 1 IHS Markit
PMI 53.1( 2)
10 53.2
3 51.7
50
• Trump 2020

9. PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) GDP( )
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
•
( 1)
•
Sprint 3
• FactSet
1 24 17% S&P500
73% 67%
Apple Amazon
Microsoft Facebook ASML Intel AMD Texas
Instrument IBM Xerox Cree Tesla Netflix
Coca-Cola Starbucks Whirlpool American
Express Boeing 3M Visa
Paypal Pfizer Sprint Johnson & Johnson
• GDP GDP
2.1%( 2) 2019
GDP 2.3% Trump 3%

10. PAGE 9
( 1) / Markit PMI
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
• 1 PMI 47.8
46.8 46.3( 1) PMI
52.8 52.2 PMI 50.9
PMI 51.1 5
(ECB)
200
2003
•
1 31
0.75%
• 12 CPI 0.8%
CPI 0.9% 2016 3 1
PMI 49.3( 1) 5
2020 GDP 0.7% 0.9%

11. PAGE 10
( 1)
( 2) CPI (%)
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
•
2019 ( )
(WHO)
(PHEIC)
GDP
5%
• Reuters
(2 1 )
2020/2021
•
50% 48% 5
Fernandez
( 2)
•
IMF 2018
570
IMF 2

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/1/30
/ /
2/3 1 ISM 48.4 47.2
2/3 1 PMI 51.0 51.5
2/3 1 Markit PMI - 52.7
2/4 12 ( ) 1.8% 2.4%
2/4 12 0.7% -0.7%
2/4 RBA 0.75% 0.75%
2/5 1 ADP 151.9k 202k
2/5 12 -$46.9b -$43.1b
2/5 Selic 4.25% 4.50%
2/6 12 ( ) 0.4% -1.3%
2/6 RBI 5.15% 5.15%
2/7 1 160.4k 145k
2/7 1 3.5% 3.5%
2/7 12 ( ) -0.2% 1.1%
2/7 1 ( ) - 9.0%
2/7 1 ( ) - 17.7%
2/7 6.13% 6.25%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.61 (1/30)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 100.0 (1/30) 5 : 126.4
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.92 (1/30)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 338.46 (1/30) 5 : 353.6

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.89 (1/30)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 461.9 (1/30) 5 : 458.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.49 (1/30)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 382.0 (1/30) 5 : 434.9

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.41 (1/30)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 333.0 (1/30) 5 : 375.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.05 (1/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 556.9 (1/30) 5 : 515.7

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.80 (1/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 312.25 (1/30) 5 : 346.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.73 (1/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 322.47 (1/30) 5 : 336.2

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.00 (1/30)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 648.0 (1/30) 5 : 558.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.15 (1/30)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 266.17 (1/30) 5 : 257.1

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.1 (1/30) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 18.7 (1/30) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 15.0 (1/30) 5 : 15.0
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 17.1 (1/30) 5 : 17.0

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.4 (1/30) 5 : 12.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.8 (1/23) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 20.7 (1/30) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.4 (1/30) 5 : 12.3

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.49 (1/30) 5 : 15.04
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 71.1 (1/30) 5 : 65.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.0 (1/30) 5 : 66.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 297.4 (1/30) 5 : 365.4

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/30 '16/1/30 '17/1/30 '18/1/30 '19/1/30 '20/1/30
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/1/30 '16/1/30 '17/1/30 '18/1/30 '19/1/30 '20/1/30
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/30 '16/1/30 '17/1/30 '18/1/30 '19/1/30 '20/1/30
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/30 '16/1/30 '17/1/30 '18/1/30 '19/1/30 '20/1/30
5 1
35.5% 0.1%
28.8% 0.2%
5 1
34.6% -0.4%
31.0% 0.1%
5 1
35.0% -0.2%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
29.4% 0.5%
26.1% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR109021
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
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