柏瑞週報20181109NEW

1. 9 November
2018

3. PAGE 2
•
(11/2)
1 10 10
0.4%
•
0.6%~0.7%
•
1.46%
Bloomberg 2018/11/8
商品 資金流向
0.12
-0.05
0.81
-0.71
-0.27
-0.14
-0.51
-0.46
0.22
-0.50
-0.43
-1.58
-0.18
0.86
2.08
-0.41
-0.29
-0.28
-0.16
-0.04
0.03
0.15
0.16
0.28
0.59
0.59
0.63
0.66
0.69
1.46
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 2.43%
600
1.10% 225 3.69%
• Trump G20
H 4.13%
1.13%
•
BOVESPA 3.17%
• 10 10.7
0.04%
Bloomberg 2018/11/8
商品 資金流向
-0.54
-3.82
0.20
-3.51
-4.88
-1.38
-2.98
-2.56
-0.26
-0.20
2.21
-2.69
-0.55
1.89
-5.45
2.99
-3.17
-2.78
0.04
0.51
1.02
1.10
1.13
2.06
2.11
2.27
2.34
2.43
2.82
3.54
3.69
4.13
BOVESPA
MSCI
DAX
600
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
SENSEX
500
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
H
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
10
3%
• (EIA)
11 2 580 ( )
7
Bloomberg EIA 2018/11/8
商品 資金流向
-18.33
-15.80
-5.03
3.02
-3.54
1.06
-1.22
-6.32
1.88
-0.37
-3.73
1.91
-4.74
-3.07
-1.01
-0.77
-0.69
-0.34
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
1.07
1.22
1.84
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 11 7 36
9 24
39 26
• 55 7
32 7
7
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/11/8
商品 資金流向

8. PAGE 7
•
Trump
Pelosi
•
2%~2.25%
( )
• 10 25
19 3.7%
1969 12 9
62.7% 62.9% 10 3.1%
2009 4 10
( )
• Kudlow
Trump
Trump G20
Bloomberg 2018/11/8
( 1)
( 2)
█ 新增非農就業人口數(左軸，單位千人)
− 失業率(右軸，單位%)

9. PAGE 8
• Bausch Bausch( Valeant
) EBITDA
EBITDA
32 ~33.5 33 ~34.5
3.6
Bausch
• Lipper
10/31 1
10.4 23.6
35.7
•
1560
2009
1500
Bloomberg Refinitiv Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/11/8
S&P 500

10. PAGE 9
•
2% 1.9%
• 33
33
(CET1) 9.9% 5.5%
•
May
11/6
Barnier
•
1 5 2500
4 10
5
5 10 4500
Bloomberg 2018/11/8
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.8 1.8
1.6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2018 2019 2020
GDP
(%)

11. PAGE 10
• MSCI A
MSCI 2019 A
5% 20% 800
( 5500 ) A
2019 2 28
•
• HDFC
HDFC
7.25%
7.3% 5 8 8 10
6% 6.5%
•
Bloomberg 2018/11/8
( 1)
( 2) SENSEX

12. PAGE 11
• Obrador
BOLSA 5.81%
2.76%
• (Petrobras)
982.6
66
2.66
(EBITDA) 192 298 3
•
Bloomberg 2018/11/8
( 1) BOLSA
( 2) RTSI

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg 2018/11/8
/ / 本益比 風險
/ /
11/12 10 PPI( ) 2.8% 3.0%
11/12 9 ( ) 4.3% 4.3%
11/13 10 CPI( ) 2.5% 2.5%
11/13 11 ZEW -25.9 -24.7
11/13 9 ( ) 1.6% 4.1%
11/14 10 CPI( ) 2.5% 2.3%
11/14 10 -$116.5b $119.1b
11/14 3 GDP ( ) 1.7% 1.7%
11/14 3 GDP ( ) 1.2% 2.3%
11/14 3 GDP ( ) -0.3% 0.7%
11/14 10 ( ) 5.8% 5.8%
11/15 10 ( ) 0.5% 0.1%
11/15 11 21.0 22.2
11/15 10 ( ) - -2.2%
11/16 10 ( ) 0.2% 0.3%
11/16 10 CPI( ) 2.2% 2.1%
11/16 8.00% 7.75%

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.31 (11/8)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 114.0 (11/8) 5 : 125.0
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.88 (11/8)
200
250
300
350
400
450
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 264.37 (11/8) 5 : 320.7

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 401.0 (11/8) 5 : 451.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.67 (11/8)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.70 (11/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 347.0 (11/8) 5 : 436.3

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.39 (11/8)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 387.0 (11/8) 5 : 362.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.81 (11/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 564.8 (11/8) 5 : 503.2

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.79 (11/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 355.59 (11/8) 5 : 337.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.30 (11/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 311.15 (11/8) 5 : 331.5

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.13 (11/8)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 500.0 (11/8) 5 : 573.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.85 (11/8)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 267.87 (11/8) 5 : 255.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.7 (11/8) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.2 (11/8) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.1 (11/8) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 16.1 (11/8) 5 : 17.7

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.6 (11/8) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (11/8) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.7 (11/8) 5 : 18.0
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.0 (11/8) 5 : 12.7

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 366.7 (11/1) 5 : 362.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.72 (11/8) 5 : 14.64
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 51.6 (11/8) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.1 (11/8) 5 : 72.6
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 352.6 (11/8) 5 : 362.3

23. PAGE 22
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/8 '14/11/8 '15/11/8 '16/11/8 '17/11/8 '18/11/8
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'13/11/8 '14/11/8 '15/11/8 '16/11/8 '17/11/8 '18/11/8
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/8 '14/11/8 '15/11/8 '16/11/8 '17/11/8 '18/11/8
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/11/8 '14/11/8 '15/11/8 '16/11/8 '17/11/8 '18/11/8
2018/11/8
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

24. PAGE 23
TR107201
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•
•
•
( )
•
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