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Similar to Pinebridge 2019 Q4 (20)
More from Pinebridge (20)
Pinebridge 2019 Q4
- 4. PAGE 3
MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI
MSCI 300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI
-
- - -
- -
Bloomberg 2019/9/3
1.4
-0.7
-1.2
0.8
9.1
0.9
22.0
8.5
13.4
28.0
1.1
12.5
11.4
14.8
15.9
-9.2
-5.4
-5.1
-3.5
-3.1
-2.7
-0.9
0.6
2.7
6.1
0.8
2.5
3.1
3.9
5.9
3 % %
9.5
10.7
10.4
6.9
7.4
11.9
10.0
13.9
9.3
10.9
8.1
10.8
9.3
8.9
1.2
4.3
3.6
3.4
1.0
4.8
3.2
5.7
3.8
3.2
1.9
6.2
4.0
4.1
-
-
3 % %
- 7. PAGE 6
• IMF 2019 3.2%
• IMF
IMF 2019/7
(IMF )
3.8%
3.6% 3.2%
( 0.1%)
3.5%
( 0.1%)
2.4%
2.2%
1.9%
( 0.1%)
1.7%
4.8%
4.5% 4.1%
( 0.3%)
4.7%
( 0.1%)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2017 2018 2019 ( ) 2020 ( )
- 8. PAGE 7
• 8 ISM PMI 49.1 3 50
• 2.6%
Bloomberg 2019/9/3
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 2.3% (2019/6)
45
50
55
60
65
2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3
PMI 49.1 (2019/8) PMI 54.7 (2019/8)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 1.8% (2019/7) CPI 2.2% (2019/7)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.7% (2019/7)
- 10. PAGE 9
Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/9/3
•
• 1.2%
45
50
55
60
65
2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3
PMI 47.0 (2019/8) PMI 53.4 (2019/8)
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 1.2% (2019/6)
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 1.0% (2019/8) CPI 0.9% (2019/8)
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
7.5% (2019/7)
- 12. PAGE 11
Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/9/3
• / 10
2019 1.0%
46
48
50
52
54
56
2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3
PMI 49.3 (2019/8) PMI 53.3 (2019/8)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 0.5% (2019/7) CPI 0.4% (2019/7)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 1.2% (2019/6)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2.2% (2019/7)
- 14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg 2019/9/3
•
•
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 3.2% (2019/6)
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3
PMI 50.4 (2019/8) PMI 52.3 (2019/8)
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.0% (2019/6)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 4.7% (2019/6)
- 16. PAGE 15
•
• ( )
Bloomberg 2019/9/3
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
10 1.457% (2019/9/3)
2 1.452% (2019/9/3)
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
10 -0.706% (2019/9/3)
2 -0.912% (2019/9/3)
- 18. PAGE 17
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.73% (2019/9/3)
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
396bp (2019/9/3)
•
• 5
Bloomberg 2019/9/3
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(12 ) 2.58% (2019/8)
- 19. PAGE 18
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.10% (2019/9/3)
200bp
250bp
300bp
350bp
400bp
450bp
500bp
550bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
351bp (2019/9/3)
• 5
•
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 (EMBI)
J.P. Morgan 2019/8/7
146
178
150
(YTD)
112
( )
155
0
50
100
150
200
2016 2017 2018 2019
( 10 )
- 20. PAGE 19
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4.82% (2019/9/3)
150bp
200bp
250bp
300bp
350bp
400bp
450bp
500bp
550bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
333bp (2019/9/3)
• 5
•
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 (CEMBI)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/31
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(12 ) 0.51% (2019/8)
- 21. PAGE 20
150 bp
170 bp
190 bp
210 bp
230 bp
250 bp
270 bp
290 bp
310 bp
330 bp
350 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
217bp (2019/9/3)
•
•
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 (JACI)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/31
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(12 ) 1.32% (2019/8)
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.71% (2019/9/3)
- 23. PAGE 22
• 2019 8.7%
12
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 500
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
500 16.9 (2019/9/3) 5
- 24. PAGE 23
• 2019
Lagarde
12
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 600
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
600 14.0 (2019/9/3)
5
- 25. PAGE 24
•
12
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
300 12.3 (2019/9/3) 5
- 26. PAGE 25
•
12
Bloomberg 2019/9/4 MSCI
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MSCI 18.6 (2019/9/3) 5
- 27. PAGE 26
•
3
12
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 BOVESPA
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
( )
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BOVESPA 11.5 (2019/9/3)
5
- 28. PAGE 27
•
Bloomberg 2019/9/3 ICE
5.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31
5.20% (2019/9/3)
200bp
250bp
300bp
350bp
400bp
450bp
500bp
2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31
367.42bp (2019/9/3)
- 30. PAGE 29 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/13
‘11/6
‘12/1
‘13/1
‘14/1
‘15/1
‘16/1
‘17/1
‘18/1
美銀美林基金經理人調查最大尾端風險（Tail Risk）
‘19/1
- 31. PAGE 30
Barclays 2019/9/3
2019 10
• (10/1)
• (10/17-18)
• IMF (10/18-20)
• (10/24)
• (10/27)
• FOMC (10/31)
• (10/30-31)
• (10/31)
2019 11 • (11/7)
2019 12
• FOMC (12/12)
• (12/12)
• (12/12-13)
• (12/18-19)
• (12/19)
