SlideShare a Scribd company logo
13 November
2020
PAGE 2
• (Pfizer)
BioNTech
10
12 0.8815% 10
13 -0.507%
•
0.34% ESG
0.15%
•
0.89% 482
•
0.63%
1.44%
Bloomberg 2020/11/12
-0.11
-0.36
0.87
-0.44
0.74
0.39
0.41
0.68
0.48
1.74
1.05
1.65
1.88
1.58
1.72
3.31
-0.75
-0.58
-0.34
-0.20
-0.15
-0.15
-0.02
0.26
0.43
0.46
0.62
0.63
0.89
1.13
1.16
1.44
ESG ( )
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
• S&P 500 0.76%
• 600 4.91%
DAX
3.86%
• 225 5.87%
(YAMAHA Motors)
• 300 0.48%
4.88%
•
0.46%
Bloomberg 2020/11/12
0.75
1.77
3.38
0.08
7.09
3.95
1.60
5.15
2.05
-0.65
7.92
6.81
3.26
6.50
8.33
7.30
0.46
0.48
0.62
0.76
0.96
1.36
1.68
1.74
2.35
3.86
4.50
4.88
4.91
5.78
5.87
7.72
BAML
300
MSCI
S&P 500
H
MSCI
MSCI
BOVESPA
DAX
MSCI
SENSEX
600
RTS
Nikkei 225
MSCI
% %
PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2020/11/12
•
12 WTI
41.12
• 11 6 (EIA)
430 ( )
300
-2.39
-1.01
0.16
4.95
7.62
2.92
4.02
5.10
2.14
10.81
4.29
4.34
-3.74
-3.45
-2.27
-0.24
0.40
1.19
1.71
2.41
2.59
3.78
6.01
6.35
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %
PAGE 5
• 445 325
3 15
65
• 102
54 38
25
BofA Global Research EPFR 2020/11/12
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
• (Pfizer)
BioNTech
90%
1570
12
Moderna
12
20
6
•
(McConnell)
(Pelosi)
(5000 ) (2.4 )
(1.9 )
• Biden
270 Trump
12 14
12 23
1 6
2
1 5
Bloomberg 2020/11/12
( 2)
( 1) S&P 500
PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/11/12
( 2)
( 1)
•
( 1)
•
Stericycle (Ford)
10
• S&P 500 89%
71% 9%
19% EPS
Roku McDonald’s SoftBank
Group Cisco Disney Applied Materials Datadog
Pinduoduo Beyond Meat
Norwegian Cruise Line
• 10
64 6.9%
4 ( 2)
61.7 61.4%
PAGE 9
•
30
10%
120 1/4
(Pfizer)
3
• ECB (ECB)
(PEPP) (TLTROs)
•
(Amazon)
•
9
4.2% 1 6,602 ( 2) 7
75
ECB
Bloomberg 2020/11/12 ECDC 2020/11/20
( 2) (%)
( 1)
PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/11/12
• CPI 1% 10 (CPI)
0.5%( 1) 1% 2009 10
19
(PPI) 2.1%
• 10
1.42
13.7% 10
6,898 8,000
• 10 (CPI)
7.61%( 2) 7.27%
7.30% 6%
•
Murat Uysal Naci Agbal
Agbal Berat Albayrak
Albayrak
( 1) (%)
( 2) CPI (%)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/11/12
/ /
11/16 11 13.2 10.5
11/16 9 ( ) - 4.0%
11/16 3 GDP( ) 19.5% -28.1%
11/16 10 ( ) 6.6% 6.9%
11/17 10 ( ) 0.5% 1.9%
11/17 10 ( ) 0.9% -0.6%
11/18 10 CPI( ) - -0.3%
11/18 0.50% 0.50%
11/19 10 0.5% 0.7%
11/19 SARB 3.50% 3.50%
11/19 1 - 10.25%
11/19 7 4.00% 4.00%
11/19 BSP 2.250% 2.250%
11/20 11 - -15.5
11/20 11 PMI( ) - 48.7
11/20 10 CPI( ) -0.4% 0.0%
11/20 1 LPR 3.85% 3.85%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 375 (11/12) 5 : 358
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.35 (11/12)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.99 (11/12)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 115 (11/12) 5 : 129
PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.60 (11/12)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 482 (11/12) 5 : 479
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.57 (11/12)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 435 (11/12) 5 : 449
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.75 (11/12)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 401 (11/12) 5 : 397
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.64 (11/12)
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 736 (11/12) 5 : 502
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.81 (11/12)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 390 (11/12) 5 : 370
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.38 (11/12)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 326 (11/12) 5 : 319
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.82 (11/12)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 609 (11/12) 5 : 578
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.89 (11/12)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 245 (11/12) 5 : 217
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.3 (11/12) 5 : 16.3
8
13
18
23
28
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.8 (11/12) 5 : 17.4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.4 (11/12) 5 : 14.7
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 21.4 (11/12) 5 : 16.4
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.6 (11/12) 5 : 12.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.6 (11/12) 5 : 12.2
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.9 (11/12) 5 : 17.7
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.1 (11/12) 5 : 12.4
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
/ /
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 25.35 (11/12) 5 : 17.53
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 44.2 (11/12) 5 : 61.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.9 (11/12) 5 : 64.1
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 352 (11/12) 5 : 382
PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12
5 1
34.3% 0.5%
28.0% 0.1%
5 1
40.0% 0.7%
30.3% 0.1%
5 1
37.1% 0.6%
29.2% 0.1%
5 1
33.6% 0.7%
25.1% 0.1%
PAGE 22
TR109334
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20201113

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • (Pfizer) BioNTech 10 12 0.8815% 10 13 -0.507% • 0.34% ESG 0.15% • 0.89% 482 • 0.63% 1.44% Bloomberg 2020/11/12 -0.11 -0.36 0.87 -0.44 0.74 0.39 0.41 0.68 0.48 1.74 1.05 1.65 1.88 1.58 1.72 3.31 -0.75 -0.58 -0.34 -0.20 -0.15 -0.15 -0.02 0.26 0.43 0.46 0.62 0.63 0.89 1.13 1.16 1.44 ESG ( ) - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • S&P 500 0.76% • 600 4.91% DAX 3.86% • 225 5.87% (YAMAHA Motors) • 300 0.48% 4.88% • 0.46% Bloomberg 2020/11/12 0.75 1.77 3.38 0.08 7.09 3.95 1.60 5.15 2.05 -0.65 7.92 6.81 3.26 6.50 8.33 7.30 0.46 0.48 0.62 0.76 0.96 1.36 1.68 1.74 2.35 3.86 4.50 4.88 4.91 5.78 5.87 7.72 BAML 300 MSCI S&P 500 H MSCI MSCI BOVESPA DAX MSCI SENSEX 600 RTS Nikkei 225 MSCI % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 • 12 WTI 41.12 • 11 6 (EIA) 430 ( ) 300 -2.39 -1.01 0.16 4.95 7.62 2.92 4.02 5.10 2.14 10.81 4.29 4.34 -3.74 -3.45 -2.27 -0.24 0.40 1.19 1.71 2.41 2.59 3.78 6.01 6.35 LME LME LME LME CRB % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 445 325 3 15 65 • 102 54 38 25 BofA Global Research EPFR 2020/11/12 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • (Pfizer) BioNTech 90% 1570 12 Moderna 12 20 6 • (McConnell) (Pelosi) (5000 ) (2.4 ) (1.9 ) • Biden 270 Trump 12 14 12 23 1 6 2 1 5 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 ( 2) ( 1) S&P 500
  • 9. PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 ( 2) ( 1) • ( 1) • Stericycle (Ford) 10 • S&P 500 89% 71% 9% 19% EPS Roku McDonald’s SoftBank Group Cisco Disney Applied Materials Datadog Pinduoduo Beyond Meat Norwegian Cruise Line • 10 64 6.9% 4 ( 2) 61.7 61.4%
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 30 10% 120 1/4 (Pfizer) 3 • ECB (ECB) (PEPP) (TLTROs) • (Amazon) • 9 4.2% 1 6,602 ( 2) 7 75 ECB Bloomberg 2020/11/12 ECDC 2020/11/20 ( 2) (%) ( 1)
  • 11. PAGE 10 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 • CPI 1% 10 (CPI) 0.5%( 1) 1% 2009 10 19 (PPI) 2.1% • 10 1.42 13.7% 10 6,898 8,000 • 10 (CPI) 7.61%( 2) 7.27% 7.30% 6% • Murat Uysal Naci Agbal Agbal Berat Albayrak Albayrak ( 1) (%) ( 2) CPI (%)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 / / 11/16 11 13.2 10.5 11/16 9 ( ) - 4.0% 11/16 3 GDP( ) 19.5% -28.1% 11/16 10 ( ) 6.6% 6.9% 11/17 10 ( ) 0.5% 1.9% 11/17 10 ( ) 0.9% -0.6% 11/18 10 CPI( ) - -0.3% 11/18 0.50% 0.50% 11/19 10 0.5% 0.7% 11/19 SARB 3.50% 3.50% 11/19 1 - 10.25% 11/19 7 4.00% 4.00% 11/19 BSP 2.250% 2.250% 11/20 11 - -15.5 11/20 11 PMI( ) - 48.7 11/20 10 CPI( ) -0.4% 0.0% 11/20 1 LPR 3.85% 3.85%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 375 (11/12) 5 : 358 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.35 (11/12) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 1.99 (11/12) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 115 (11/12) 5 : 129
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.60 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 482 (11/12) 5 : 479 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.57 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 435 (11/12) 5 : 449
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.75 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 401 (11/12) 5 : 397 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.64 (11/12) 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 736 (11/12) 5 : 502
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.81 (11/12) 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 390 (11/12) 5 : 370 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.38 (11/12) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 326 (11/12) 5 : 319
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.82 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 609 (11/12) 5 : 578 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.89 (11/12) 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 245 (11/12) 5 : 217
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 / / 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.3 (11/12) 5 : 16.3 8 13 18 23 28 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.8 (11/12) 5 : 17.4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.4 (11/12) 5 : 14.7 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 21.4 (11/12) 5 : 16.4
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 / / 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.6 (11/12) 5 : 12.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.6 (11/12) 5 : 12.2 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.9 (11/12) 5 : 17.7 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 13.1 (11/12) 5 : 12.4
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg / / 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 25.35 (11/12) 5 : 17.53 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 44.2 (11/12) 5 : 61.7 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.9 (11/12) 5 : 64.1 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 352 (11/12) 5 : 382
  • 22. PAGE 21 Bloomberg * 50% +50% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 5 1 34.3% 0.5% 28.0% 0.1% 5 1 40.0% 0.7% 30.3% 0.1% 5 1 37.1% 0.6% 29.2% 0.1% 5 1 33.6% 0.7% 25.1% 0.1%
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109334 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • / • • • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898